V&M Breakout Update - March 3rd: Market Rebounds Ahead Of Next Fed Hike
Summary
- The Market Momentum Gauges® turned positive again Thursday even as SPY negative weekly outflows were above $2 billion for the third week in a row.
- Weekly MDA Breakout portfolio is up 35.8% YTD and Bounce/Lag Momentum portfolio +25.3% following the signals.
- Long term V&M portfolios are beating the major indices with Neg Forensic +13.2%, Piotroski-Graham value +17.9%, Pos Forensic +18.7%, Growth & Dividend March +4.6%.
- Update article includes Momentum Gauge signals, daily Economic Data, CFO insider trading, Daily Breakout tracker, Fed balance sheet tracker, and Portfolio returns.
- Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Value & Momentum Breakouts. Learn More »
leonid_tit
V&M Breakout Update - New Bullish Signals
We have new bullish signals starting both for the broad market of 7,500+ stocks and the S&P 500 (SP500). However sectors remain mixed while all improving to the end of this week.
app.VMBreakouts.com
S&P 500 Total Daily Returns
So far into 2023, there is a very strong Friday pattern that accounts for most of the gains on the S&P 500.
VMBreakouts.com
SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) February-March roadmap shows the first breakout above the negative channel bearish stair steps. Thursday, the S&P 500 opened at the lowest levels since January 20th. The extreme positive reversal that followed was credited to Atlanta Fed President Bostic for remarks suggesting the Fed's record rate hikes could pause... this summer.
FinViz.com VMBreakouts.com
The Daily SPY chart shows the breakdown from the early February 3rd signal and again February 21st. The similarities to the August 2022 topping signal remain strong, as we saw frequent bear bounces on the way to -16.2% declines into September last year.
FinViz.com VMBreakouts.com
The ETF momentum gauge trading model switches between Bull/Bear combos following the positive or negative signals on the gauges. Members of my service have seen the following returns from the changing signals. These returns are further enhanced following the early warning signals (not shown).
VMBreakouts.com
Long-Term Forecasts for 2023
Forecasts remain unchanged for a bearish outlook based on the impact of QT and rate hikes on markets in all my QT studies from 2018. I have added a new outlook article with the potential for a Debt-Ceiling standoff:
- Largest Market Topping Signal Since August As Fed Considers 50 Bps Rate Hike
- Value, Momentum Breakout View: Debt Ceiling 'Extraordinary Measures' And Fed's QT Program
- Cyclical Rally Faces A February Reckoning
- Forecasting The S&P 500 For 2023: Year Of The Fed-Pivot And More Record Volatility (SP500).
VMBreakouts.com FinViz.com
Short-Term Portfolios / Models
The two weekly breakout portfolios are shown below, along with current 2023 returns. The ongoing competition between the Bounce/Lag Momentum model (from Prof Grant Henning, PhD Statistics) and MDA Breakout picks (from JD Henning, PhD Finance) are shown below with / without using the Momentum Gauge trading signal. The per-week returns equalize the comparison where there were only 16 positive trading weeks last year.
VMBreakouts.com
Long-Term Buy/Hold Portfolios
New Dividend picks for March have been released, already up +4.65%.
VMBreakouts.com
You can find details on the long term portfolios here:
The Piotroski-Graham portfolios
As members know, all these returns are greatly enhanced using the Momentum Gauges to avoid downturns.
VMBreakouts.com
Negative Forensic portfolios
As members know, all these returns are greatly enhanced using the Momentum Gauges to avoid downturns.
VMBreakouts.com
Positive Forensic portfolios
As members know, all these returns are greatly enhanced using the Momentum Gauges to avoid downturns.
VMBreakouts.com
Growth & Dividend portfolios 1 year buy/hold
Returns shown not including large dividends. The S&P 500 is down -9.3% over the past 1-year.
VMBreakouts.com
January Dividend-Adjusted Returns vs. S&P 500
Additionally, the January 1-year dividend adjusted portfolio returns are shown below, beating the S&P 500 by +17.84% last year. 2022 was one of the worst-performing years since 2008.
StockRover.com
Prior Years Growth & Dividend portfolio returns
VMBreakouts.com
Fed Balance Sheet Tracker
We can confirm the Fed reported another -$38.1 billion reduction in their balance sheet this week, with totals down more than -$468 billion since the week 21 peak last year with a $1 trillion reduction target. The Fed balance sheet has been reduced back to levels in October 2021. We will get the latest balance sheet update every Thursday after the close.
System Open Market Account Holdings - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK.
Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve balance sheet reduction, actuals and estimates
The Fed cut their balance sheet another -$38.1 billion this week, with only three weeks with a larger cut since QT started last June.
VMBreakouts.com
Daily Momentum Gauge Forecast
The Daily Market Momentum Gauges yesterday delivered the first positive signal since the start of January. We are seeing very similar patterns to the August peak that had a series of bear bounces into lower market levels for September.
app.VMBreakouts.com
Top CFO Insider Buys versus Sells last 10 days
The Top 20 CFO buys/sells activity show extremely low purchase events by all CFOs in the last 10 days. Very few CFOs (8 so far) are buying stocks above the $30k level at what is considered significant purchase level. The changing levels of buying are used as an early measure for a bullish signal, while selling activity remains extremely elevated and in large amounts in a bearish signal.
Typically, lower CFO activity tends to be a risk-off signal with increased market concern. $30k is a key significance level for best results based on my research: CFO Trading Anomaly: Top Buys Beating S&P 500 By 28% Annualized.
SecForm4
I am always monitoring the markets to deliver the best signals and returns with consistent double-digit annual returns the past seven consecutive years. I hope this brief overview of our market models and signals helps you. Follow my weekly updates for more.
All the very best!
~ JD Henning, PhD, MBA, CFE, CAMS
If you are looking for a great community to apply proven financial models with picks ranging from short term breakouts to long term value and forensic selections, please consider joining our 1,200+ outstanding members at Value & Momentum Breakouts
- Subscribe now and learn why members are hooked on the Momentum Gauge® signals!
- For the 6th consecutive year the V&M Portfolios beat the S&P 500!!
- The new Active ETF portfolio gained +17.1% beating S&P 500 by over 35%
- Now into our 7th year, we have outperformed the S&P 500 every single year!
See what members are saying now - Click HERE.
This article was written by
Welcome! I am a Finance PhD, MBA, investment adviser, fraud examiner and certified anti-money laundering specialist with more than 30 years trading and investing stocks and other securities. I'm the founder of Value & Momentum Breakouts.
***
I'm JD Henning, the founder of Value & Momentum Breakouts. I've spent decades capturing many of the best ways to consistently beat the markets. I've earned degrees researching markets, and even more importantly, I've spent the time myself as a trader and investor. I am one of those unusual multi-millionaire, PhD's in finance, former Coast Guard officer with a bunch of certifications ranging from anti-money laundering specialist, investment adviser, to fraud examiner... who genuinely enjoys helping others do well in the markets. I'm bringing the fruits of my experience and research to this service. I am highly accessible to members to answer questions and give guidance.
***
It's been quite the start of the year for investors. My guess is, after a decade of good times in the market, you’re here looking for some guidance in how to navigate these volatile markets and the uncertainty of the coronavirus and inflationary conditions. You’re in the right place. For the past 7 years I’ve made my trading systems public and helped thousands of my subscribers navigate and profit from every market downturn and breakout. Please be sure to read the reviews of my service from actual members!
***
Value & Momentum Breakouts doesn't stop with the Momentum Gauges® and the Bull/Bear ETF strategy. The service is designed for investors who appreciate having easy access to quick picks from many top quantitative financial models across different types of investing strategies. Portfolios and selections cover all types of investments:
***
Commodity and Volatility fund trading
Cryptocurrency chart analysis
Long term high-dividend growth stocks
Short term high-frequency breakout stocks
Forensic analysis value stocks
Value enhanced long term growth picks
ETF sector and bull/bear combination trades
Dow mega cap breakout picks
Sector and Index Momentum Gauges® for market timing
***
I share my expertise by generating frequent Value & Momentum Breakout stock portfolios from the different financial algorithms across peer-reviewed financial literature.
***
Try a 2-Week FREE trial and see all the value for yourself.
Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.