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BioCryst's Commercialization Of Orladeyo: Risks Materializing, A Shorting Opportunity

Stephen Ayers profile picture
Stephen Ayers


  • BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is a biotech company that focuses on developing treatments for rare diseases. Its main product, Orladeyo, is an oral medication approved by the FDA to treat hereditary angioedema.
  • BioCryst's full-year 2022 revenue for Orladeyo was strong, but missed its raised guidance of $255-$265 million from August. Shares fell 17% despite reaffirming 2023 revenue guidance of at least $320 million.
  • BioCryst's shares dropped in part due to a delay in its clinical program and investors' concerns about the company's increasing R&D spending and widening net losses.
  • Moreover, it seems that Takeda's Takhzyro is outperforming Orladeyo, its main rival, in the market for hereditary angioedema.
  • Given management's reaffirmation of less than 30% year-over-year growth for Orladeyo, coupled with increasing costs, expanding net losses, and stiff competition from Takhzyro, BioCryst appears to be a strong candidate for short-selling for the rest of the year.

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Panuwat Dangsungnoen


BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:BCRX) is a biotech company that specializes in developing treatments for rare and debilitating illnesses. Its flagship product, Orladeyo, is an oral medication designed to treat hereditary angioedema [HAE], a rare genetic disorder that causes recurring

This article was written by

Stephen Ayers profile picture
As a Registered Nurse with a Bachelor of Science in Nursing (BSN), my commitment to biotechnology is both personal and professional. My dedication is grounded in a deep-seated passion for the field, fortified by an unwavering desire to stay ahead of market trends and breakthrough treatment innovations.Beyond my clinical experience and patient interactions, I bring an indispensable element to my analysis - objectivity. I understand the inherent risks involved in investing and consistently emphasize a balanced, informed approach to my readers. While I'm not afraid to make bold predictions, I also believe in admitting and learning from my mistakes, striving always to align my forecasts with the shifting realities of the biotech landscape. This focus on 'Superforecasting' - the practice of refining projections with each new piece of information - forms the backbone of my approach. I'm driven by the pursuit of truth, constantly adjusting my lens as new information comes to light, ensuring my insights are always timely, accurate, and reflective of the current state of affairs. With keen analytical skills and a knack for spotting details often missed by those without direct clinical experience, I strive to deliver deep-diving, insightful content. Leveraging my expansive knowledge, I aim to create meticulously researched, highly informative written materials that equip you with the insights you need to navigate the dynamic world of biotech investing. As your trusted source for biotech intelligence, I'm excited to offer you a perspective that's as rooted in real-world healthcare experience as it is in forward-thinking analysis.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

This article is intended to provide informational content only and should not be construed as personalized investment advice with regard to "Buy/Sell/Hold/Short/Long" recommendations. The predictions made in this article regarding clinical, regulatory, and market outcomes are the author's opinions and are based on probabilities, not certainties. While the information provided aims to be factual, errors may occur, and readers should verify the information for themselves. Investing in biotech is highly volatile, risky, and speculative, so readers should conduct their own research and consider their financial situation before making any investment decisions. The author cannot be held responsible for any financial losses resulting from reliance on the information presented in this article.

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