Entering text into the input field will update the search result below

JinkoSolar And Solar's Dramatic Expansion

Keith Williams profile picture
Keith Williams


  • 65% of JKS solar PV sales in 2022 were in China (up 3-fold) & Europe (doubling year-over-year). This makes the company less dependent on US business.
  • Jinko’s top solar panels (N-type TOPCon) are expected to have 25.8% efficiency when mass produced by end of 2023. This is a big deal.
  • Notwithstanding problems in the US in recent years, JKS sales in the US are expected to increase in 2023.
  • JKS produced 44.6 GW of solar panels in 2022 and expects to produce 60-70 GW of solar panels in 2023. JKS is also expanding its battery (ESS) business.
  • In light of massive growth in solar PV just about everywhere (and JKS is just about everywhere), a revaluation of JKS' share price is surely close.

Businessman draws increase arrow graph corporate future growth year 2022 to 2023. Planning,opportunity, challenge and business strategy. New Goals, Plans and Visions for Next Year 2023.

Galeanu Mihai

I'm an investor who looks to get ahead of big changes that will impact the investment scene. While my background is in the biotech industry, I think that the massive change that we are experiencing is the electrification of both

This article was written by

Keith Williams profile picture
Keith began his career as a research scientist (developmental biology, biochemistry, molecular biology) at the Australian National University, University of Oxford (UK), the Max Planck Institute for Biochemistry (Munich, Germany) and finally Macquarie University (Sydney) where he held a Chair in Biology and established the Centre for Analytical Biotechnology. Pioneering the area of proteomics (with Marc Wilkins in his group coining the term), Keith established the world’s first government-funded Major National Proteomics Facility (Australian Proteome Analysis Facility) which was involved with industrialising protein science. Keith left academe with his team to found Proteome Systems Ltd in 1999 to commercialise proteomics. The company had a strong focus on intellectual property, engineering/technology and bioinformatics. As CEO he led the company to ASX listing in 2004. Since 2005 Keith has been involved in new business development in biotech, e-health and other emerging technologies. Keith sees climate change and sustainable development as a major issue for humankind and also a major business disruptor/risk and opportunity. Keith holds a Bachelor Agr Science from the University of Melbourne and a PhD from the Australian National University. He is a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences & Engineering and received an AM (Member of the Order of Australia) for services to the Biotechnology Industry. He has received various industry awards including an Innovation Hero Medal from the Warren Centre for Advanced Engineering. With 300 scientific papers and many patents written, Keith has a clear view of innovation in the Biotechnology and Climate/Renewable Energy space. He is not a financial advisor but his perspective adds relevance to decision-making concerning feasibility and investment in technology innovation.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of JKS, CSIQ, FSLR either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

Comments (61)

Reality Chacer profile picture
Share price nearly halved to the life of this article. Problem is that chasing market share in a growth industry is a race to the bottom. Share market eventually gets tied of the 'Growth' story and demands profits. Problem is the profits are not there at today's PV cell price. Solar panels need to be 30% higher, but solar farms can not absorb that sort of price increase as feed-in tariffs are under pressure and inflation bites. Solar farms are just not making enough electricity/money, and the 'Growth' story will not change that fact.
Market share of an industry that does not make enough money, is a flawed investment.
Ayecuramba profile picture
@Reality Chacer we can see that shipped GWs is growing massively, this is just another shakeout in the Solar PV and Storage market, the strong will survive and thrive in the aftermath, the weak and poorly run will fall, such has always been the nature of growth markets. Looking at these historic cycles I can see that Canadian Solar ( CSIQ ) has the experience and technology ability to deliver strong growth and bigger profits once we are thru this next short term cycle, solar power is likely to double over the next 5 years, I want to be with a winner!
Reality Chacer profile picture
Thanks for your comment, I don't exactly see how profitability increases however. I don't think there are economies of scale to be gained when 80% of the cost of a solar panel is raw materials and energy.
Ayecuramba profile picture
@Reality Chacer well sometimes we don't see where profitability comes from, however there is clear overcapacity and that will lead to a market shake out and the strong will thrive in that environment, those with the most flexible cost bases will flourish and with that their profits will come. Canadian Solar ( CSIQ ) is looking to grow it's market share from it's current 9% to around 15% in the coming 3-4 years, with that scale comes the economies and with those economies comes more profit.
Hi all,
-30% since Keith "buy" report .. after a lot of China bearishness ;(
Probably went to low, and good reward/risk now.. or were there fundamental changes in the story since then!?
Keith Williams profile picture
@Laurent Ho The fundamentals remain. As you say the China story is a problem, but the need to decarbonize isn’t going away and China is key to solar.
Reality Chacer profile picture
@Laurent Ho
Fundamentals remain, no climate crisis and China happy to play a game with the West.
Ayecuramba profile picture
@Reality Chacer don't forget the massive acceleration of investment globally by whole countries to have reliable local sources of power, solar, wind, hydro and storage are all seeing huge investment growths for obvious reasons.
Karl Glazier profile picture
They have a huge amount of share based compensation (getting into shareholders pockets), I think CSIQ is better.
@Karl Glazier

On $3.4 billion 1Q22 revenue, "the impact from (i) a change in fair value of the convertible senior notes (the "Notes"), (ii) a change in fair value of long-term investment and (iii) the share based compensation expenses" amounted to about $7 million. I'm not sure which portion of that is share-based compensation, but $7 million is a drop in the ocean on that kind of revenue.

Also, CSIQ is my favorite stock in the market, so I agree with you on that.

But I also like JKS.

I believe your numbers for homes is off by a factor of 10. Running 10KW for 1 eficient home does not power 10,000 homes on 10MW or 10 Million on 10GW. 10MW/10thousand= 1,000 homes. 10GW is not 10Million homes but 1 Million homes of your size. If all the homes are as efficient as your it could power 2-3 times those numbers.

The nest electric cars use appx .35KW per mile. To travel 30Miles a day you would require about 12KW with power loss from charging.

You would use around 27KWhrs a day. During summer months your system would support 2 homes with your usage and the car. During winter months your system will cover your home.

Your home system depending on insolation would be typically between 4.5 and 5.5K hours a day. During winter months you will generate roughly 60% of that peak power per day.

Using 55KWhrs a day as power generation summer peak, That puts winter months at around 30KW. That will run your car 30 miles a day and your power needs. It will not power any extra homes.

In the U.S. in California I had a 10KW system that generated roughly 55KW a day My 3,000 4 Bed 4 Bath with pool and kids, I was using 65KWhrs a day average. The system zeroed out my electric bills because of credits at peak hours and nightime usage at lower rates.

If I did not have that the system would have needed to be 20% larger to meet my true usage. If I had to generate full power in the winter from Solar, then my 10KW system would have needed to be upsized to a 20KW system in San Jose California.

I moved to an area where they do not subsidize with peak rate credits. My Co-op is $0.12/KWhr. Summer days are 95-100 degrees and winters are 30-60 degerees. I use with heatpumps for electricity and air and a pool with pump and well pumps for sprinkler around 150Kwhrs a day. I need a 30KW system. That system will cost around $100,000. I am over 60 and that is not worth my investment at my age.

I am pro solar but not for residential rooftop as that is the most expensive solar there is. I am against forcing power companies to buy at peak market rates and not at the market costs they buy at. The most efficient and cost effective solar is mass scale PV farms.

And yes, I am looking for an EV to buy but I require a 400 Mile range at this time to get me from my primary residence to my beach from vacation home. I will waite another 2 years when those ranges start being commong and the cost of batteries drops as more Lithium mining comes on line.

Cheers, solar is the most cost efficient form of energy these days
Keith Williams profile picture
Oops my miscalculation on powering homes. I’ll fix it.

On the other hand your estimates for travel by BEV does not accord with our lived experience.

Actual power needed to charge our BYD Atto 3 (60kWh battery) is much less. Our round trip to Sydney (300km) uses ~30kWh and takes ~4-5 hours to charge fully @ 6.4 kWh charge from our panels during the day (free) or offpeak at night (cost -$A4-5). Our BYD doesn’t spend a lot of time being charged. Our modest other ICE car cost $A132 to fill recently). Guess which car we drive?
A 500 km trip requires a 30 min charge @ 50kWh about half way and we arrive with a couple of hundred km available range.
@Keith Williams I will take you at your word for your distance and charge. Those numbers do appear to be twice as good as the car is advertised as getting in optimal conditions City driving mild weather. Those numbers your citing is about 0.1KWhr per mile. A Tesla does around 0.24Kwhr per mile and a Ford Mach E uses around 0.34KWhr per mile.

What kind of L2 charger and plug are you using? Most homes get wired for 60Amps of 220V or 240V. I have a 30 Amp Nema for my Plug in BMW 530E. That is the max charge rate it can handle. That car uses ~0.5KWhr per mile(18miles per charge). That gets me to town and 3/4 of the way back before ICE kicks in. Don't burn much gas a month. I am looking for an EV but want 400Mile range. I have a year or 2 wait for those to be out.

Keith Williams profile picture
@twoheadedsnake1234 Sorry for the confusion in my brief response about our Atto 3. In making a quick summary there are clearly some misunderstandings.

My 300 km rough round trip distance to Sydney is my basis for taking that trip with no thought of need to charge in Sydney. The actual home to harbour bridge distance is exactly 100 km. Sydney is a big city so when I say 300 km that allows for travel across and around town. The reality is that a normal trip uses ~50% of the battery, sometimes a little more if I drive across town several times. I usually put ~30 kWh into the car on return to get a 100% charge.

Our home charger is a Fronius Wattpilot home 22, which is a 22kW, 240V system that integrates with our Fronius inverter. It charges at 6.4 kWh. www.fronius.com/...

The UK link that you provide concerning the Atto 3 is substantially more conservative than my actual on road experience in Australia. In a 500 km trip with 4 adults, the first 250 km used ~50% of the battery (ie nominal close to 500 km range). The second half that involved more hilly terrain was closer to the specified low end of the range (420km).

The 420-480 km range works for us. I don't like driving for more than 2-3 hours without a stop and with a 50 kWh charger (which are becoming the norm in Australia) this requires ~30 min to almost fully charge the car.
I don't feel the need for 400 mile range, but it depends on how you drive and whether you need to drive for 4-5 hours between breaks. The Atto 3 happily coped with 4 adults and a dog with luggage for a week at the beach. The range didn't seem to be affected by a car full of adults. Note that the Atto 3 (like Tesla) has a heat pump for heat/cool. This is a big deal. If you have conventional heat/cool it makes a big difference to the range you get. I didn't bother looking for a fast charger when we arrived at our beach destination. I just plugged into a conventional 240 V outlet which charged slowly (1.4 kWh) and so took a long time to top up the car (more than a day) but we were not using the car so no hassle.

A couple of fun things about the car.
1) We live in the bush and have frequent outages. A generator is noisy, smelly and expensive. We use the BYD as our generator now as it has a car to 240V outlet which plugs into the charging port and provides power to a power board. Just park close to the house and hook up. In a recent 15 hour outage the car provided power for big freezer, 2 big fridges, basic lights, electric jug, coffee machine, internet (Starlink), phone charging, computers etc. It used 6% of the BYD battery to provide these basic services.
2) I'm amused when going down a big hill that the range of the car increases. This doesn't happen with an ICE car.
What happens if Jinko decides to de-list from the NYSE as JA Solar did from the NASDAQ market (remember good old JASO) or as Trina Solar did from the NYSE exchange (remember good old TSL)??? They can then fully relist in China, have multiple classes of stock, bring in new investors into these new classes of stock, and who knows how fairly the profits will be allocated. When Jinko decided to dual list in both the US and in China, they brought in new investors who were simply identified as "unidentified". Jinko's NYSE stock has been in the doldrums ever since, in spite of their higher revenues and capacity increases. The whole matter seemed rather murky. The Chinese government doesn't want its China based companies audited by any outside party. Further, as a foreigner, there would be virtually nowhere to seek recourse for any mistreatment. Remember Hanergy's collapse. There is skepticism about the Chinese markets with good cause.
i_am_seeker_2 profile picture
@Jake Crash They will buy out Jinko at a premium if that happens. I made very good money on Trina when they did it. To me, it would be a shame, as I think JKS will be a high flying stock again (I was buying it in the teens years ago and still have some of the $16 shares I bought then). They have been a US stock for a long time now and have conformed to US auditing standards ever since, never had a problem in my memory.
Keith Williams profile picture
@Jake Crash This isn't just a Chinese issue. I'm a bit anxious about my investment in RNW, India's major renewables company. It looks like the major investor (Canadian Pension Plan) might be seeking to take the company private. seekingalpha.com/...

If that happens, what chance that I will get a reasonable price for my shares?
@i_am_seeker_2 Trina was selling a low P/E multiple on the NYSE. Trina's management thought (much like Jinko's did) Trina's inherent value was not being properly recognized on the NYSE, and they took the company private (later to be relisted in China). That was a very good deal for the new owners of the private company. But, it was a poor outcome for those former owners of the NYSE Trina shares. If you made money on the buyout, it only would be because you had held Trina shares for a considerable length of time. Those that bought Trina shares just somewhat prior to the buyout would have lost money, and they also lost the opportunity to see the value of their NYSE shares appreciate. It is equivalent to being involuntarily forced to sell shares of any company at the bottom of a market cycle, a guaranteed loss due to the buyout. Just remember, almost everyone that bought Jinko shares since Oct. 2020 would be hurt financially by a Jinko management buyout at its current price of $47.90. Some would get a 33% shave.
JFollansbee profile picture
JKS-Chinese accounting. Good luck with that.
In my opinion, Daqo (DQ) is much better than JKS or CSIQ. With the industry shift to N-type poly + a debuting semiconductor poly foray, DQ will thrive with it's quality/technology focus, not to mention a ridiculous PE of 2, zero debt and a massive $1.5B (or about 40% of current market cap) buyback to be executed over the next 9 months or so. So IMO, DQ is a clear multi-bagger and better positioned than JKS or CSIQ.
@spatel0169 yeah but still DQ isn't audited as per SEC standards. As far as I know, the China regulators "take the issue seriously". SEC requires info on governmental control and shell companies. Delisting lingers for several companies as early as 2024. It is just around the corner.
As a US investor, I personally do not trust putting any of my money into a Chinese company. Similar sentiment by others may explain the lagging share price. There is the constant threat of Xi's government meddling and even taking over any company they choose. No thanks. It's not about fear of dominance. It is about fear of investing in a company in a communist leaning country and losing your entire investment. For a while Xi seemed to be heading back to the old ways of state control of everything, spooking investors.
Keith Williams profile picture
@JayPar Since China makes just about everything, any company that you invest in has similar risks. China is export oriented, why would it mess up its export companies?
@Keith Williams Somewhat true. However, that is usually a matter of losing supply chains or a big market, not the entire company under potential control and manipulation by the leaning communist party of China. The risk is not the same for every company. Xi did a bit of a 180 when they saw investors pulling out due to Xi's policies. But why trust them? Hopefully companies are continuing to diversify away from China overdependence and building alternative supply chains. Zero covid policy and cozying to Putin also don't help build any trust.

Bottom line is Western investors still do not trust Xi or China's communist party with their hard earned money. Even though they are a hybrid communist model now. Sometimes Xi sounds like he is headed back to hard line communism.
Pierre Rossouw profile picture
@JayPar So. Well. It looks like you won't be investing in any solar energy manufacturers. As well as in a lot of producers of other stuff you find in America.
Keith i enjoyed the article but why JKS over CSIQ? I see you have both.
engineeringeddie profile picture
@pdinfull based on MWp-shipped-to-market-price targets for this year (i.e., real-world capital efficiency, from an investor's perspective), both JKS and CSIQ are the world beaters by a country mile. JKS is currently slightly ahead in this regard:

There are other profit motives for investing, but real capital efficiency is the winning argument over the long haul in any commodity business.
@engineeringeddie I am long in both $JKS and $CSIQ also in $DQ. Massive growth ahead and market leaders, just waiting the shares to x2 x3 x4...
Solar Investing profile picture
Another great article by one of SA's best energy authors. I have done well with both JKS and FSLR and agree totally that the increase in renewable power is now becoming unstoppable.

It's a shame some of the best technological advances are coming from Chinese and not Western solar companies. In the U.S. especially we need to get away from the fossil fuel mentality and wake up to the now increasingly obvious disasters precipitated by climate change.

This is especially unfortunate as, in most markets, renewables now produce energy for less cost than fossil fuels - without even looking at all the pollution of the O&G industry.
engineeringeddie profile picture
Nice piece, Keith. I'll dig in a bit deeper later on. Just a note that the Jinko TOPCon production PV cells will be about 25.8% efficient, but (as with all silicon panels), the integrated panel efficiencies will (probably) be a fraction above 23% efficient. Jinko's TOPCon panels are about 1.5 cents per Watt more expensive than PERC, but with performance that nearly matches far more expensive HPBC and IBC topologies. As a marketplace offering, it's akin to selling 98 cents worth of a full dollar for an actual cost of 65 cents. Taiyang News regularly updates the world's best panel performance rankings -- https://taiyangnews.info/
@engineeringeddie Different topic, but can you explain what the issuance of convertible bonds in the subsidiary is going to mean for Jinko's finances? Is this net positive for us as shareholders? Obviously, 10 Billion RMB is nice, but does it represent a dilution, or is it a means of unlocking arbitrage in connection with the incongruent market caps?

engineeringeddie profile picture
@MB4302 The impact of this deal is going to be much smaller, on a dilution-per-dollar-raised basis for both Jiangxi and JKS Holding than the old ADR-convertible debts ever were. Without peering into the details of the deal (nominal interest, strike prices, conversion dates, termination dates), I see this as a easy-to-make decision to acquire capital much more cheaply in Shanghai than is possible in New York. A convertible-debt raise of 10 billion RMB prices at about 6% of Jiangxi's current market cap. Bearing in mind that only 20% of the total Jiangxi shares outstanding are floated on the STAR exchange, the dilution factor on conversion is going to be small in return for the ~$1.45 billion USD worth of capitalization.
In New York, JKS' 58.62% ownership in Jiangxi is now priced at one-fifth its valuation in Shanghai (i.e., the exact same asset sells for 5x the price in Shanghai) -- it's a very easy choice for Jinko and its subsidiaries to ignore U.S. capital markets for future raises.
@engineeringeddie Any chance you can explain the mechanics of the convertible bond announcement from today? I don't know if this means that JKS is increasing/decreasing its stake in the subsidiary, whether it is buying/selling the bonds, and what the net financial impact for JKS is. I understand that the subsidiary is raising RMB 10 billion in capital, and that this is effectively a form of dilution of the shares in the subsidiary (right?).

It seems that one of the main questions, is how much do the bond buyers have to pay for the right to convert to 1 share of the subsidiary? Then we would be able to calculate the degree of dilution here - and what the tradeoff would be in terms of cash earned by selling the bonds and decreasing ownership share of the subsidiary.

Ayecuramba profile picture
Nice to see the mention of Canadian Solar (CSIQ) but you are incorrect in it being another Chinese Solar stock, as it is headquartered in Guelph in Canada.

Also strange that you focus on JKS when from your own chart it is clear that Canadian Solar has outperformed it in FY22 and massively outperformed it on the EPS front hence the lower PE.
Pierre Rossouw profile picture
@Ayecuramba According to their website, CSIQ is registered in Canada But I do note that almost all the directors, the management board, the members of the listed committees of governance, technology, sustainability, compensation and audit are Chinese.

See: investors.canadiansolar.com/...
and: investors.canadiansolar.com/...
Ayecuramba profile picture
@Pierre Rossouw not sure with what that has to do with whether the company is Canadian or Chinese, sure it is just the location of the headquarters, management team and registered address I don't see what the ethnicity of the management board has to do with this...
i_am_seeker_2 profile picture
@Pierre Rossouw Oh wow, some of them have Chinese/Asian names. But let's look behind the names:

Here is the founder, president and CEO:
Prior to founding Canadian Solar, Inc., Dr. Qu worked at Automation Tooling Systems Inc (ATS), Cambridge, Ontario Canada from 1998 to 2001, where he performed various responsibilities at ATS and at its subsidiaries in the solar power business, Matrix and Photowatt International S.A. including Director for Silicon; Procurement, Director for Strategic Planning and Business Development and Technical Vice President (Asia Pacific) of Photowatt International S.A. From 1996 to 1998, Dr. Qu served as a Research Scientist at Ontario Hydro (currently Ontario Power Generation), where he worked as a process leader in the development of Spheral Solar technology, a proprietary solar technology which Ontario Hydro acquired from Texas Instruments.

Here is an independent director, Henry Ruda
Dr. Harry E. Ruda has been serving as an independent director of the Company since July 2011. He is the Director of the Centre for Advanced Nanotechnology, the Stanley Meek Chair in Nanotechnology and Professor of Applied Science and Engineering at the University of Toronto, Canada. His research interests focus on the fabrication and modeling of semiconductor nanostructures with applications in the fields of optoelectronics, energy and sensing. Dr. Ruda is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada and holds a PhD in Semiconductor Physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is Chair of the Research and Development Committee.

Here is another independent director:
Mr. Wong held various positions with Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu (Deloitte) in Hong Kong, San Jose and Beijing, with his last position as a partner in Deloitte’s Beijing office. Mr. Wong received a Higher Diploma in Accountancy from Hong Kong Polytechnic University and a Bachelor of Science degree in Applied Economics from University of San Francisco. He is a fellow of the Hong Kong Institute of Certified Public Accountants; a fellow of the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants; and a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants.

Here is another independent director:
Ms. Lauren Templeton has been serving as an independent director of the Company since January 2020. Ms. Templeton is the founder and President of Templeton & Phillips Capital Management, LLC, a global investing boutique located in Chattanooga, Tennessee. She is also an independent director and member of the Audit Committee of Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited, a financial holding company engaged in property and casualty insurance and reinsurance and associated investment management, and its publicly-traded subsidiary, Fairfax India Holdings Corporation. Ms. Templeton serves on a number of non-profit organizations, including the John Templeton Foundation, the Templeton World Charities Foundation and the Templeton Religion Trust. She also serves on the Board of Trustees at the Baylor School, the Board of Trustees at the Bright School and the Board of Overseers at the Atlas Economic Research Foundation.

And one more:
Mr. Karl E. Olsoni has been serving as an independent director of the Company since June 2020 and was a strategic advisor to the Board of Directors between January 2020 and June 2020. Mr. Olsoni has more than 30 years of international energy sector experience. He is currently an Operating Partner with Quinbrook Infrastructure Partners, an infrastructure fund manager investing in clean energy infrastructure in the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia.... Before that, he spent 16 years with the Southern Company where he was part of the original management team that built the Southern Company's independent power and merchant energy business (Southern Energy, Inc., later Mirant, Inc. and NRG Energy, Inc.) into one of the largest independent power producers in the world. Mr. Olsoni holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from George Washington University and an MBA from the College of William and Mary.

All from investors.canadiansolar.com/...

Sounds really Chinese all right...
Disagree with this article? Submit your own. To report a factual error in this article, . Your feedback matters to us!
To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.