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The 'Fed Pivot' Is Coming - The Bottom Is Close

Mar. 27, 2023 11:44 AM ETS&P 500 Index (SP500), DJI, SPX, NDXSIVBQ, XLF, GS, JPM, KEY, SCHW, KRE324 Comments


  • With a banking crisis unfolding, the Fed must curb its aggressive interest rate policy and return to easing monetary conditions soon.
  • Instead of 5.5%, the market now expects the benchmark to be closer to 4% by year-end.
  • Moreover, the funds rate may move even lower if the recession persists.
  • While some companies like quality tech bottomed, other significant components in the S&P 500 probably have not.
  • Therefore, we may see the SPX retest its bottom around 3,500, or move even lower if the banking crisis intensifies.
  • This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Financial Prophet. Learn More »

USA Flag and Economic Downturn With Stock Exchange Market Indicators in Red


With a banking crisis unfolding, the Fed must curb its aggressive interest rate policy and return to easing monetary conditions soon. Therefore, while it's a crucial week for markets data wise, the market may already have decided about the fate of interest

Rate probabilities

Rate probabilities ((CMEGroup.com))

Economic data

Economic data (Investing.com)


SPX (StockCharts.com)


XLF (StockCharts.com)


GS (StockCharts.com)

EPS estimates

EPS estimates (SeekingAlpha.com )


KEY (StockCharts.com)


KRE (StockCharts.com)


SCHW (StockCharts.com)


SPX (thinkorswim)


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This article was written by

Victor Dergunov profile picture
The #1 Service For Diversified Portfolio Profits

Hi, I'm Victor! It all goes back to looking at stock quotes in the old Wall St. Journal when I was a kid. What do these numbers mean, I thought? Fortunately, my uncle was a successful commodities trader on the NYMEX, and I got him to teach me how to invest. I bought my first actual stock in a company when I was 20, and the rest, as they say, is history. Over the years, some of my top investments include Apple, Tesla, Amazon, Netflix, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Nike, JPMorgan, Bitcoin, and others.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of GS, KEY, PYPL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I am long a diversified portfolio with hedges.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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