The 'Fed Pivot' Is Coming - The Bottom Is Close

Summary

• With a banking crisis unfolding, the Fed must curb its aggressive interest rate policy and return to easing monetary conditions soon.
• Instead of 5.5%, the market now expects the benchmark to be closer to 4% by year-end.
• Moreover, the funds rate may move even lower if the recession persists.
• While some companies like quality tech bottomed, other significant components in the S&P 500 probably have not.
• Therefore, we may see the SPX retest its bottom around 3,500, or move even lower if the banking crisis intensifies.
• This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Financial Prophet. Learn More »

ronniechua

With a banking crisis unfolding, the Fed must curb its aggressive interest rate policy and return to easing monetary conditions soon. Therefore, while it's a crucial week for markets data wise, the market may already have decided about the fate of interest rate policy and where the benchmark may be in the next few months.

Fed Funds Rate - Year-End Probabilities

Rate probabilities ((CMEGroup.com))

Remarkably, the probabilities for the year-end Dec. 13 FOMC meeting now point to a benchmark that's likely to be around 4%. About one month ago, the market was confident that the Fed funds rate would be approximately 5.5% by year-end. There's a significant difference between 4% (or lower) and 5.5%. Marginal declines in inflation are not enough for such a dramatic drop in rate increase expectations. However, an upcoming recession is. Thus, recently, we saw a sharp shift in rate expectations due to banks like SVB (SIVB) failing and the rippling fear of the dreaded contagion effect.

Economic Data - Crucial Week Ahead

Economic data (Investing.com)

We have some crucial consumer data coming in this week. Moreover, the GDP report will come out on Thursday. Yet, this Friday's PCE number is the most critical market-moving event. If the reading comes in hotter than expected, we may have an increase in higher rate probabilities moving on. Furthermore, the dynamic of persistent inflation could plague corporate margins, thus, curbing consumer sentiment further in the coming months.

Exploring Some Scenarios - The SPX

SPX (StockCharts.com)

The SPX has moderated its decline, and we're approaching another inflection point here. However, before we draw any conclusions, we should consider several critical questions first. Did the SPX and stocks generally make a lasting bear market bottom in mid October last year? While this is a simple $64,000 question, the answer may need some clarification, as some stocks probably bottomed and others likely have not.

Some stocks, especially the severely oversold high-quality technology names I discussed in many articles around their lows last fall, probably made long-term bottoms but should continue providing buying opportunities on pullbacks and dips.

On the other hand, many other stocks likely have further downside ahead. We just saw the banking sector get demolished within several days. The financial ETF (XLF) dropped by about 19% from its recent highs, becoming extremely oversold in recent sessions. High-quality financials should provide considerable long-term upside potential despite the probability of near-term volatility.

XLF - Possible Bottom-Buying Opportunity Here

XLF (StockCharts.com)

XLF had a constructive reversal on extremely high volume in Friday's session. XLF's price dropped to approximately the $30 level support level, representing a 20% correction and gaining momentum in buy interest around this point. The question is whether this is a lasting bottom, or could there be more downside if more shoes drop in the finical sector as we advance?

So far, XLF appears relatively constructive, and we may be around a tradable bottom right now. There may be more downside for specific financials in the intermediate and long term. Nevertheless, some quality financials could provide excellent initial entry points, DCA opportunities here, and other options as we advance through this banking crisis.

My Top Five Financial Stocks

1. Goldman Sachs (GS) - There's a reason why they say "Goldman Sachs - the smartest guys in the room." Goldman continues making money in enormous sums. Also, if anyone profits from the credit default swaps and other derivative investment vehicles during this downturn, Goldman Sachs may be the stock to bank on.

GS (StockCharts.com)

GS had a constructive correction, but it should not be affected negatively regarding what we've seen with SIVB and smaller regional banks. GS is a solid financial, paying a 3%+ dividend now. Moreover, GS is trading at an ultra-low forward EPS of roughly 7-9 here. Goldman's revenues and earnings could increase more than expected, especially following the Fed's "pivot" and eventual return to an easy monetary atmosphere. Many financials will benefit when the easy rate policy regime returns.

2. I also like JPMorgan (JPM) for similar reasons, as JPM is typically a well-managed bank and controls risk relatively well during critical moments. JPM's CDS/other derivative exposure could enable the bank to navigate the crisis with limited risk exposure. JPMorgan has solid earnings potential and trades below a ten P/E ratio here. Moreover, JPM also provides a 3.2% dividend around here.

EPS Estimates - Could Move Higher

EPS estimates (SeekingAlpha.com )

EPS could increase quicker and more significantly than expected as JPMorgan capitalizes on the future "easier monetary" environment. We could see significant multiple expansion as JPM returns to a stable EPS growth of 5-10% YoY. If we apply a 12-15 times forward P/E multiple to JPM's current EPS estimates, we arrive at a stock price of $160-200 for the company's shares (trading at $125 recently).

3. KeyCorp (KEY) - Key is a solid bank with no evidence of significant exposure to toxic assets. The company's stock became caught up in the recent panic selling and got crushed beneath a massive selling wave.

KEY (StockCharts.com)

I haven't seen any evidence that Key has significant exposure to bad debt or anything toxic that should impact the bank. Nevertheless, I found its shares down nearly 50% in days, leading me to "buy the panic" in this regional bank.

Disclosure: I have been a happy customer for many years at Key Bank.

4. SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) - The KRE is a highly diverse composite of 147 companies at the heart of America's regional banking industry. Therefore, KRE is an ideal gauge considering the well-being of the finical system in the U.S.

KRE's - Sudden Drop

KRE (StockCharts.com)

While KRE has had quite the drop, we should consider the future risks carefully and watch this ETF as events unfold in the finical segment in the coming months.

5. Charles Schwab (SCHW) - One of the most significant factors is the size of Charles Schwab, as its market cap has swelled to well over $100 billion in recent years. Also, I just realized how massive and powerful Charles Schwab has become recently. The most crucial question is how significant could the unrealized losses be at Schwab, and could the company have to realize them at an unfavorable time?

SCHW (StockCharts.com)

Technically, this stock has taken a significant beating and likely deserves a rebound. However, some analysts remain cautious and warn that the stock could have limited upside now. I concur that Schwab is a crucial company to watch now, but there is little need, if any, to own its stock. Once the fog clears, under more transparent circumstances, Schwab will become a strong buy. However, I will continue watching and consider Schwab at lower prices advancing from here.

Where SPX is Going From Here

SPX (thinkorswim)

SPX remains highly resilient and should attempt to break out again soon. It's moving to critical 4,080-4,100 resistance; if it can overcome this zone, 4,200-4,300, resistance could come next. Nevertheless, if the SPX doesn't penetrate 4,100 and reverses, the technical image becomes bearish, and the critical support we continue watching is the 4,000 and the 3,800 levels now. If the SPX starts slipping below critical levels of support, it will become highly probable that the SPX will either double bottom, retracing back to 3,500, or reach a new low in the worst-case outcome.

Portfolio Strategy: Keeping It Simple

The quarter is ending soon, and it's been a terrific start to the year for our All-Weather Portfolio "AWP." YTD, the AWP is up by approximately 17%, the SPX is up by around 3.4%, and the NYSE is down by nearly 3% for the year.

AWP - YTD/QTD Performance

The AWP (The Financial Prophet )

Therefore, we're doing well, especially in our technology, materials, and cryptocurrency segments. The AWP's technology segment of the portfolio is up by roughly 25% YTD, and the AWP's diversified non-GSM stock/ETF segment is up by approximately 16.3% (18%, including hedging).

• My SPX bear-market bottom range remains 3,500-3,000
• My year-end SPX target range is 4,200-4,600

Please stay tuned for the AWP's quarterly review and Q2 updates very soon.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of GS, KEY, PYPL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I am long a diversified portfolio with hedges.