Tuesday's Bio-Pharma Watch List

by: StockMatusow

Monday was an interesting day for the bio-pharma sector in general.
The first event saw Map Pharma's (NASDAQ:MAPP) stock price trade all over the place from $16.31 - $17.20 before being halted up nearly 7 percent as the FDA's PDUFA deadline was expected today on the migraine treatment inhaler LEVADEX after the bell, but the stock was halted a few hours prior to the FDA decision.

Afterwards, the FDA rejected LEVADEX on what appears to be a minor concern in the manufacturing process of the inhaler from a contracted 3rd party. The stock never did resume trading on Monday, with its last official stock price quoted at $17.11.

It is hard for me to predict exactly how far the stock will tank Tuesday when it opens for pre-market trading, but my estimate is about 3 to 4 dollars. This actually would not be that bad considering the stock has had a 30% run up in the last year. I hope things work out for you if you are a MAPP long.

NuPathe (PATH) had a bit of a run up today as it has its own Migraine treatment in a transdermal patch form labeled NP101. The stock closed the day up $0.25 (6.87%) a share at $3.89. I wrote about PATH in a prior article of mine, and feel the company has great potential moving forward. I am not sure how MAPP's rejection will effect PATH, but I would estimate that PATH will actually be up tomorrow, as investors might now see the company having an inside track at getting its Migraine treatment to market before MAPP. PATH received a CRL from the FDA last year for NP101, but it appears to me the issues raised can be worked out to ensure its drug gains approval this time around.

Antares Pharma (AIS) has had a wild ride lately, trading as high as $3.45 a share before settling back down to $3.32 in yesterday's trading session, up %0.05 (1.53%). This marks another 52 week high for Antares, which appears to be setting one every other trading session lately. I hold a large position in Antares because I believe it is the best long term small cap prospect in the entire market.

Let's take a look at the wild ride Antares has had lately.

Date Open High Low Close Volume
Mar 26, 2012 3.40 3.45 3.28 3.32 2,566,200
Mar 23, 2012 3.04 3.28 3.03 3.27 2,432,400
Mar 22, 2012 3.04 3.08 2.95 3.02 1,247,700
Mar 21, 2012 3.17 3.23 3.07 3.08 1,981,700
Mar 20, 2012 2.96 3.17 2.95 3.13 2,402,800
Mar 19, 2012 2.86 2.97 2.82 2.97 1,340,000
Mar 16, 2012 2.77 2.86 2.76 2.82 1,344,100
Mar 15, 2012 2.80 2.82 2.69 2.76 1,219,200

As we can see above, the stock has been on a tear lately. In a prior article of mine, I speculate that Antares might be bought out soon. Please note; this is only my belief as I have no way of knowing if this is a fact or not, as I do not personally know anyone at Antares.

The daily short interest is bizarre on this stock, as on most days at least half the trading interest are short sells, as if someone is attempting to accumulate shares by actually short selling to themselves, thus controlling the price. To be honest with you, I am not sure if that is even legal, so I might be way off-base with this view. It might just be a case of very dumb money trying to take the stock price down, but any kind of dumb money attempting this would need very deep pockets.

Keep a close eye on Antares, as I really do feel it will be acquired soon, and I am not all that excited about this. I would rather hold it for 3 to 5 years and see much larger gains than any buy-out would bring now.

pSivida (PSDV) was up yesterday $0.22(13.66%) to $1.83 as ILLUVIEN is poised to be approved by 7 European countries by the end of the current quarter. PSDV stands to receive royalties from Alimera Sciences (NASDAQ:ALIM) on ILUVIEN, an eye implant designed to help a patient's vision who suffer from Diabetes.

PSDV will receive 20% net profits on a country by country basis and has full audit rights. If Alimera decides to partner out the European commercialion then PSDV is entitled to 33 percent of any upfront and or milestone payments and 20 percent of whatever Alimera gets in royalties.

I just wrote an article on Alimera that covers this upcoming catalyst, and should have considered that PSDV may have more to gain from the European approval in the short term. It appears PSDV might get the bigger stock price percentage gain on the European approval news than Alimera may receive.

I plan on writing a full feature article on PSDV as I am heavily researching what looks like a promising company with interesting projects they are working on, low cash burn, no debt, and a nice company structure.

Disclosure: I am long AIS, ALIM.

Additional disclosure: DISCLAIMER: This article is intended for informational and entertainment use only and should not be construed as professional investment advice. Always do you own complete due diligence before buying and selling any stock.

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