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NIO: Down 86% From Its High But Can Decline Even More

Apr. 23, 2023 6:58 AM ETNIO Inc. (NIO)41 Comments


  • The hype for EV companies has drifted away in the last couple of years and hot stocks like NIO, expected to reach the moon, have returned down to earth.
  • Amid a price war among EV makers, NIO believes that its wealthy customer base will be less affected despite a slowdown in vehicle sales.
  • Despite assuming strong growth in revenues and high profitability, NIO stock still results to be highly overvalued at today’s prices.
NIO logo and the Nio"s user center, NIO House

Andy Feng

Investment Thesis

A financial rollercoaster is probably the best description for NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stock. After surging more than 1000% during 2020, the stock started crushing from its all-time high burning 86% of its market capitalization.

At the peak of

This article was written by

BlackNote Investments provides in-depth analyses of stocks and entire industries. The Discounted Cash Flow approach is utilized to determine the intrinsic value of stocks and understand the company's potential for growth and profitability in the long run. To offer a comprehensive overview of the stocks analyzed BlackNote Investments conducts research on the industries and sectors in which the companies operate coming up with critical values publicly available in detailed reports. If you are a long-term investor who wants to invest in great stocks at a reasonable price, turn on the notification button to not miss any new update

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Comments (41)

Nio will survive & thrive. Be patient 🚀
The writer completely ignores the international expansion plan and sub-brands NIO plans to introduce for his model. NIO will not remain in China market only. It is already one of the most international company with its organization and has a huge plan for international expansion that started in Europe last year.
When it comes to the terminal value, what makes you believe that the revenue growth will be below the risk free rate? People on SA cannot build a proper DCF, just rely on some shitty templates.
BlackNote Investment profile picture
@GB77 the growth rates at the terminal value IS equal to the risk-free rate assuming it is the best proxy for the overall economic growth rate (reflecting expected inflation and growth in GDP)
Mr. Gumbo profile picture
Id start getting interested below $5
Chris Lau profile picture
@Mr. Gumbo Agree. Buy soon. Probably by late spring to early summer.

Kudos to this author and anyone else writing 'sell' here: seekingalpha.com/...
Chris Lau profile picture
Reiterate sell at $20 and at $10. Buy at a lower price, higher margin of safety.

Evergrande, which is bankrupt, made losses disappear. Its EV unit will come after $NIO, Tesla market share in China.

23 Apr. 2023
It's time to buy, when everyone is saying it will go lower, dont buy, then is time to buy.
$3.34 value sounds about right. Book value after Q1 should be around $1.75 and Q2 around $1.50.
Bag holding my 1000 shares of NIO at a $18 cost basis. Not selling or adding more to it, just hoping for a turn around in the years to come.
@NittanyLion86 it will... Battery swap is the future if it's not hydrogen. Best way to regulate infrastructure.
Convoluted profile picture

Hoping for a different result in the 1979 Sugar Bowl is not a good strategy. However, with an underwater stock, you can sell calls to mitigate the situation.

Incidentally, I do recall that ‘86 was a decent year.
@Convoluted Yes, NY Giants won the Super bowl and NY Mets won the baseball world series.. best year
I wouldn’t say NIO is extremely over valued. It’s very close to fair valuation at current price. If NIO could compete with cheaper EV makers I think that would be better for them. The BYD Seagull is selling for $11,000 in China. And they have cheaper EV’s selling for $5000 as well. Not sure if NIO is putting enough effort into their so-called sub brand ALPS.
@Natturner1966 NIO is a play on battery swap. EV comparison is just a joke. This is a ten year play.

Battery swap is a toss up. Better batteries coming soon. People will be able to drive longer on each charge.
@sarichter Battery swap? They've lost that one before they started.
LMAO. What a joke of a write up !
@TheeSoluution could you enlighten us on which parts you disagree with and why?
The gyrations of Nio makes it difficult when to buy. Tesla tanking doesn’t help the EV market. But buying into a Chinese company with todays political climate itself makes it risky. Down over 50% in past 12 months.
@Be A Man
Are you a day trader or an investor? So sell BYD, Li, F, and all other EV who are in China. The CCP is a bunch of ass clowns living in the 1900s.
@ItsAllBS I am more of an investor but I do trade fairly often as conditions warrant. I follow this and other stocks but primarily invest in BDCs snd done Cefs snd ETFs. I am very leery of any purchase of Chinese stocks,
23 Apr. 2023
@Be A Man don't worry about political climate, this white house works for CCP. Nothing will happen there.
All these recent articles about NIO only make me think to buy now, when they say sell its time to buy, when they say its time to buy then its time to sell. So now its time to buy.
“Extremely overvalued” 😂😂😂
zorbs99 profile picture
169 followers? lol. Another fake article by a short clown hedge fund that said buy UBER $35 now $30, Sell ILMN $216 now $227 and Buy INFY $17 now $14 and Buy ABNB $130 and now $115.
BlackNote Investment profile picture
@zorbs99 speaking facts here (171 now)
@BlackNote Investment
No, speaking assumptions. 50/50 you are wrong. NIO will survive . Is the SP disappointing? Of course. Could it gyrate a bit lower in the "short" run (hint hint) , of course. But wait! All stocks even mighty Tesla have seen this "technical" movement.
NIO has some headwinds, BUT..so do other EV manufacturers. The greenies want too much too soon.
Stay long. It won't be pretty, but it will rise from the ashes.
So, keep shorting. ;)
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