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Novavax: Dead Cat Bounce

Apr. 26, 2023 2:57 PM ETNovavax, Inc. (NVAX)BNTX, MRNA, PFE48 Comments


  • Novavax, Inc. bounced on hype while the prospects from the business continued to dim with the demand for Covid vaccines.
  • The small biotech has major doubts about the financial picture of the company considering the massive operating expense structure built up to produce Covid vaccines.
  • Novavax stock remains a Sell due to like further dilution ahead and no logical path to profits.
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Germany Begins Novavax Covid Vaccinations

Carsten Koall

Following a going concern proclamation from the company, Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) had bounced over 50% of the lows to over $9. The biotech faces a problematic year as demand for Covid boosters dries up and the company has a

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This article was written by

Stone Fox Capital profile picture

Stone Fox Capital (aka Mark Holder) is a CPA with degrees in Accounting and Finance. He is also Series 65 licensed and has 30 years of investing experience, including 10 years as a portfolio manager.

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Comments (48)

Stone Fox Capital profile picture
Sell any rips due to new covid virus fears.

-Despite sharp year-to-date declines, shares of leading COVID-19 vaccine developers spiked on Tuesday amid fears that China is facing a new wave of coronavirus infections.

-Respiratory disease specialist Zhong Nanshan warned that the country would see as many as 65M weekly COVID cases by the end of June, driven by new Omicron variant XBB, Bloomberg reported citing local media outlet The Paper.

-He further notes that XBB, which has been driving a resurgence of cases since late April, will cause 40M weekly infections by the end of May before the case count peaks at 65M a month later.
@Stone Fox Capital your months late. India was invaded by XBB.1.16 long ago. without travel restrictions, it's headed hear. btw, there are, so far, 6 XBB strains. it's not yet known whether 1.16 will be like Delta or Omicron.
"First reported in India in January 2023, WHO has since found XBB.1.16 present in at least 33 countries."
-- www.bmj.com/...

the CDC tracking page: covid.cdc.gov/...
1.16 is, for the moment, rising much as the first Omicron.
Stone Fox Capital profile picture
What a joke! Nobody is looking at covid variants anymore, definitely not watching the CDC tracking page. Covid is no more than the flu anymore and it hardly ever was more.
Stone Fox Capital profile picture
Revenue outlook doesn't sound so set in stone, per the earnings call as follows:

-Outside of the US, we are pleased to report that we have secured approximately $800 million in potential APA orders for 2023. We are encouraged by our progress in this area, and excited about the potential we have to positively impact global health of their updated vaccine this year. Assuming we execute successfully on our plans for the US and ex-US, we expect total revenue in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion for the year, inclusive of product sales and grants.
rollwave2023 profile picture
@Stone Fox Capital it's up 35 percent in one day and you are coming up with reasons it shouldn't be ? wow.
Stone Fox Capital profile picture
Do you understand how the market works? Management makes promises and the stock trades on those promises. Sometimes those promises are more questions than stated and the stock ends up falling back to prior levels.
rollwave2023 profile picture
@Stone Fox Capital oh yes sure management makes promises and stocks go up 35 percent? wow, really? amazing what you read on this site.
rollwave2023 profile picture
bump, wow was this author off on this company
Stone Fox Capital profile picture
That cash burn was absurd. We'll see about the revenue target for the year.

-Q1 GAAP EPS of -$3.41 beats by $0.01.
-Revenue of $81M (-88.5% Y/Y) misses by $13.52M.
-Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash were $637 million as of March 31, 2023, compared to $1.3 billion as of December 31, 2022.
Stone Fox Capital profile picture
The WHO is a couple of years late. Trump was right to defund this scam.

-The World Health Organization (WHO) ended the global public health emergency designation for COVID-19.
-WHO Director-General Tedros Ghebreyesus on Friday said, "With great hope, I declare COVID-19 over as a global health emergency."
@Stone Fox Capital well... I guess another million or so geezers wouldn't be missed. that's just the USofA, of course.
Stone Fox Capital profile picture
So you still in the bunker b/c a 90-yr old with cancer might die 3 months earlier? The problem with all of the covid policies is that making pandemic restrictions actually put these people at more harm.
@Stone Fox Capital actually put these people at more harm.

go ahead, prove it. and FauxNews and NewsMax and the like surely don't count. the actual scientists who work the field have never said any such thing.
Stone Fox Capital profile picture
A good reason to push out the RSV program.

-The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Wednesday approved Arexvy from GSK (NYSE:GSK), making the British pharma giant’s product the first U.S.-cleared shot for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

-Arexvy is indicated for those aged 60 years and older to prevent lower respiratory tract disease caused by RSV. The approval comes after the agency accepted GSK’s biologics license application (BLA) for Arexvy under priority review last year with a regulatory action date of May 03, 2023.

-GSK’s RSV older adult vaccine contains an adjuvant licensed from Antigenics Inc, a wholly owned subsidiary of Agenus Inc. (AGEN).

Actually NVAX has outperformed PFE by over 30% in the last month.
Stone Fox Capital profile picture
Kinda the point of the article. No reason for $NVAX to bounce and outperform.
Stone Fox Capital profile picture
Even the big covid stocks aren't bouncing.

-Wall Street continued to avoid pandemic plays as shares of the two leading COVID-19 vaccine makers in the U.S., Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX), reached new 52-week lows on Wednesday, albeit at below-average volumes.
-Pfizer (PFE), the joint developer of the first FDA-cleared COVID-19 shot in the U.S. with BioNTech (BNTX), dropped for the third straight session as the stock reached the lowest level since July 2021. Meanwhile, BioNTech (BNTX) shares fell for the eighth consecutive session to hit a two-year low.
-Their recent underperformance coincides with disappointing quarterly reports from other pandemic favorites such as Danaher (DHR) and Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), which also indicate a drop in demand for COVID related products.
-eddie- profile picture
This stock is just junk
like a Zombie, NVAX may rise from the dead. XBB.1.16 is taking off like a rocket ship (not from SpaceX, alas) and it ain't even cold anymore/yet. 'they' don't know whether it will be less lethal like the original Omicron or deadly like Delta. but it sure do spread like wildfire. just read up the Indian press.
Anaconda Steel profile picture
This stock should receive an Emmy for being the stock pick in the future movie “Boiler Room II”, it’s a 30yr tragic turd bilking retail (and BARDA) for repeated cycles of funding without results. WHY does anyone follow it or care anymore….?
@Anaconda Steel Novavax waited, and expected, funding from BARDA, but they did not receive it. And I, as well as others, do care and follow it.
@Anaconda Steel apparently clinical data means nothing to you. Strange since his is biotech where actual data usually makes a difference
Stone Fox Capital profile picture
What clinical data? The covid shot doesn't perform as well as Moderna BioNTech.
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