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NIO: 3 Catalysts For A Major Rebound

May 08, 2023 7:47 AM ETNIO Inc. (NIO)29 Comments
The Asian Investor profile picture
The Asian Investor


  • NIO saw a drop-off in deliveries on a month over month basis in April.
  • However, NIO's sedan delivery share continued to increase. New product launches could add to delivery growth.
  • NIO continues to represent solid value due to an extraordinarily low P/S ratio. Break-even achievement could also be a catalyst.

NIO logo and the Nio"s user center, NIO House

Andy Feng

NIO (NYSE:NIO) saw a decent year over year increase in deliveries for the month of April, but the company's delivery monthly volume dropped again below 10 thousand units, which is a concern only in the short-term. On the positive

This article was written by

The Asian Investor profile picture
I look for high-risk, high-reward situations. Five largest portfolio holdings: Bitcoin, SoFi, Alibaba, PayPal, Western Alliance. Early buyer of cryptocurrencies. I live in Thailand :)

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NIO, LI, XPEV either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Comments (29)

doubleE profile picture
The new ES6 has to be a home run. If not, abandon all hope for this stock.
doubleE profile picture
How can NIO break even when it is about to launch two new brands ?
New brands imply new showrooms, new service centers and new development costs even if the underlying platforms are the same. Management guided to $140 million per quarter of cost related to new brands. They have no shot of breaking even in 2024 or 2025.

The ET5 has obviously failed as a volume driver. If the ES6 fails as well, NIO is done. The niche models like EC7 are irrelevant. Tesla took off with the success of Model 3 and Y.
NIO needs to replicate that with ET5 and ES6. Period.

This author produces fluffy, cheerleading articles with zero critical content.
AnimeSnoopy profile picture
Coming soon, the next article the asian investor, SVB: 3 Catalysts For A Major Rebound
Too risky at the moment in my opinion.
China said its security services had raided the offices of Capvision, an international consultancy, in Shanghai, Beijing, Suzhou and Shenzhen. Chinese authorities have recently increased scrutiny of advisory firms, arresting employees of Mintz Group, an American due-diligence firm, and removing materials from Bain, an American consultancy. In April China updated its counter-espionage law, broadening its powers to examine documents and data on national-security grounds.
Foreign investors (foreign to China) cannot buy shares in NIO, the company.

They can buy slips of paper that purport to be shares of NIO, the Chinese company - but they are not, in fact, shares of NIO, the Chinese company.

No further analysis is needed.
This is a NIO promoter. From $60 to now had never sold NIO always claim good value with same reason 30% annual sales growth. Proof to be wrong every time. SA should ban this content provider.
Hypergrowth Stocks Newsletter profile picture
@cd7707 The lower a stock price goes, the more bullish you should be! I originally bought NIO at $2 and sold at $18 on its way up to $60. Everyone agrees that art $60 it was overvalued, just like a hundred other growth stocks in 2021/22. But today, growth stocks are at the lowest valuation based on a FWD 3 year P/S ratios I have ever seen on my 40+ years of investing. Don't be negative on a stock just because the price is down. If anything, you should want stocks to go down in price so that you can buy them cheaper. NIO is an easy tenbagger over the next decade.
@Hypergrowth Stocks Newsletter

"Don't be negative on a stock just because the price is down."

Agreed. But one should be negative on a stock if it doesn't actually represent ownership in the company it purports to represent ownership in.
Hypergrowth Stocks Newsletter profile picture
@bondsmoker "One should be negative on a stock if it doesn't actually represent ownership in the company it purports to represent ownership in." I don't even know what that means.
CatCameBack profile picture
@The Asian Investor You need to show the math for number of cars sold, average price per car sold, gross margin per car, and operating expenses, in order to get them to breakeven. The math currently doesn't work out, and it is not even close. Please list those four numbers to make your case for breakeven.
The Asian Investor profile picture
@CatCameBack If you look at NIO's EPS trend (and the EPS trends of other EV companies like LI), break-even is very much in reach.
CatCameBack profile picture
@The Asian Investor Their EPS has been getting more negative. And here is there operating income for that last 7 years in millions of dollars:
-375,-761, -1395, -1591, -706, -708, -2267
M Cuturic profile picture
NIO seems like it could pop higher over the 2nd half of this year, however, EV affordability and a tepid Chinese economy worry me.
@M Cuturic
The affordability issue is coming down like all newer technologies. It is already more affordable when you factor in maintenance, operation and tax incentives. If external factors like emissions are factored in it isnt even close. The battery swap or batter as a service has massive advantages in my opinion
The Asian Investor profile picture
@M Cuturic As battery costs decrease, EV makers should be able to lower their prices drastically. This will affect margins negatively, but also help adoption, revenue growth and market share.
@mikemillman battery swap is OK when EV needs hours on recharge, which is not the case anymore, the max I charge with my Y is 30mn, and it is 10mn more than needed, but because I'm new to EV I always charge more than I need.

The was TESLA goes with their battery as a platform makes much more sense to me than a recharge station.
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