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Philip Morris: A Decade's Review And Concerns

Tradevestor profile picture


  • Philip Morris International has underperformed Altria Group, Inc. on both income and growth.
  • Altria Group's troubles are well-documented, which likely keep things real or even depressed.
  • I expect this outperformance to continue over the next decade.

Philip Morris Report on Premature Deaths

Spencer Platt

Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM) has long been part of my portfolio but my memory is failing me now as to whether I got into it before or after I bought shares in Altria Group, Inc. (

This article was written by

Tradevestor profile picture
Dividends (DGI and DRIP) and Growth at reasonable price (GARP) for Long-term. Serious money.Fun trading for short-term. Play money.Ideas and thoughts presented in the articles are not professional recommendations.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of PM, MO either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (28)

PM EPS growth rate since 2011 is 3% CAGR while Altria 7% CAGR. No wander why MO outperformed PM despite big undervaluation now.

7% is more than 3% as we all know.

But we can invest only in future not past and future now looks better for PM.
Tradevestor profile picture
@uznechci It did back in 2011 as was, that's my point. I still own both but my larger point is lower expectations likely lead to better results (for proven companies).
Gulf Coast Gill profile picture
Yes, but during that time PM has completely reinvented the tobacco business, turning it into a nicotine delivery business. That was not cheap, many billions were spent, but I think we will see major rewards for those investments in the future.
@Gulf Coast Gill agree..PM has spent billions developing their non-combustible business, building the factories, introducing it to the world....huge success.

MO spent billions to buy a chunk of JUUL to do the same thing...huge failure.
I have owned both MO and PM since before the split.Would never think of selling.
Tradevestor profile picture
@jazz9650 I am not either.
@jazz9650 Even when shares traded for P/E 24 in 2016 suggesting 60% overvaluation and many many years of dead money as a result?

Very bad decision as you could double share count for free.
BAHAMAS1 profile picture
Long PM
Tradevestor profile picture
@BAHAMAS1 Me too but was surprised to see the level of MO outperformance.
Mo is the tobacco stock that I decided not to own. There is too much drama.
Tradevestor profile picture
@Sam_12 But they still meet and beat their expectations.
Dicktater143 profile picture
Pm haters incoming , LONG MO and BTI .
Tradevestor profile picture
@Dicktater143 Wait did you call me a PM hater?
@Tradevestor Think he was referring to the incoming posts. PM has a bright future but I am surprised the stock is under 100. Long PM
Tradevestor profile picture
@GeorgiaBoy4 I am thinking it may go below $90
I have owned both. I sold MO after 30 years and kept PM. USA regulators are strangling MO, and will continue to do so. Its an easy pick if you are up on the industry and regulation. NY state for example wants to ban ALL tobacco products. Other blue states will follow. MO has stumbled and burned through a mountain of cash with JUUL and other ventures. PM a safer regulatory pick by far.
josephaoppenheim profile picture
@Taterman About 15% of MO is it’s 10% ownership of BUD.
Peter Jaworowski profile picture
@Taterman The current Governor in NY is pushing marijuana very strongly, which for all I care is fine with me. But the question I have is what person in their right mind thinks someone smoking a combustible joint is better for someones health than someone vaping or enjoying a ZYN or on! nicotine pouch?

Also isn't it hypocritical to try to ban menthol cigarettes when marijuana continues to evolve and come in all sorts of varieties and flavors?

It just doesn't make any sense to push one so strongly but be restrictive on the other one. The policies should be similar for both.
@josephaoppenheim how much does bud contribute to MO ? almost nothing. and thats before bud shot itself in the foot with the marketing fiasco. bud is the new JUUL
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