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Ford: All Eyes On Ford+

May 22, 2023 8:10 AM ETFord Motor Company (F)78 Comments
Tradevestor profile picture


  • Ford Motor Company's Ford+ event is likely to focus on the company's EV targets.
  • Can a giant organization built on hierarchy and traditional style turn nimble almost overnight?
  • I believe in Ford's transformation process but part of any good process is to have realistic goals too.

Ford brand logo

Vera Tikhonova

Producing Electric Vehicles safely, profitably, and at scale isn't easy. Throw in an aggressive timeline into the mix and things get more complicated. Just ask Elon Musk. Now, to that mix, add a company that is not too well known for being nimble or fluid

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Tradevestor profile picture
Dividends (DGI and DRIP) and Growth at reasonable price (GARP) for Long-term. Serious money.Fun trading for short-term. Play money.Ideas and thoughts presented in the articles are not professional recommendations.

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Comments (78)

The problem with Ford is their overhead costs. Also not sure there is much of a demand for EV I would not have a need for one.
Created in 2021, “Very Gay Raptor” was born in response to a negative comment on social media, with Ford rendering its most badass nameplate in sparkling gold adorned with rainbow graphics. The positive response online was so overwhelming the manufacturer decided to make it real, and has been using it as a tool to help drive out discrimination ever since.
I'm just about tired of people who haven't spent a day in the business I've spent a lifetime in telling me how much they understand it so much better than me.
Ford is scaling to build something as important as The Rouge was when it was built.
Ford is going to be better than fine, count on it.
Elmo is about to get schooled by more than one company that knows how to build, market, distribute and sell cars. Tesla enjoyed an empty market that is only getting more crowded every day. Crowded by companies that don't make promises for years before halfway keeping them.
dmce profile picture
@Gevans47 Ford - Lots of happy talk about EVs from Jim Farley and Mary Barra for a couple of years now. Both claiming their companies will catch Tesla in EV sales by 2025. Let's see how everyone is doing 2 years into the race by looking at Q1 EV sales:

Ford - 12,000
GM - 21,000
Tesla - 423,000

Ford and GM keep spotting Tesla a bigger lead as Tesla out executes them in scaling BEV manufacturing. Tesla is showing no signs of slowing down while Ford and GM haven't offered any proof that they are speeding up, relying instead on sound bites and Powerpoints. Don't be gullible.
dmce profile picture
@Tradevestor - Excellent analysis!
Tradevestor profile picture
@dmce Thanks!
matttrakker profile picture
+++ cause in the future everything sucks
Long F and most of you should de buying this gem. Solid dividend returns and a lot of upside potential
In the future with 28b in cash on the balance sheet and the ability to outshine Tesla on EV
ronald61239 profile picture
Mr. Farley on CNBC today said. Flat out, Ford Pro. will double its earning this year. He stands by previous estimates provided for the year.
He dose not expect much from the battery business. It is my belief that some day when the battery business becomes a commodity business, Ford will spin or sell it off.
@ronald61239 Ron he stood by his forecasts for Q 4 as well….
@ronald61239 stock down. apparently his capital day not going well

Yeah, nothing really new was revealed. I would not say it is disappointing, but it is not as exciting as one may have thought it would be. No reveal or even hint of what the next gen EV F150 will look like.

Basically it just comes across as Ford presenting all at once a combination of everything Ford has already said in various earning calls and presentations over the past couple years.

Problem is, Ford is at a place where there is not much more they can say. The only real way they are going to drive the stock higher is to execute on what they say. That obviously is going to take time.
I'm watching the Capital Day presentation now. I had some hope they would show at least a glimpse of the next gen EV F150. But Doug Field said that is not happening today.

He did however, give a glimpse of what the EV Expedition will look like. Ford is describing it like a "personal bullet train".
RickJensen profile picture
@Stewart Foreman
If people had any idea of what's going to be coming out of BOC.
This is devoid of an analysis of Musk's $25,000 EV. His team's engineering and methodology to obtain the cost reductions needed to get to that price-point. I don't see any if their competitors utilizing or copying any of their templates. If we head into a prolonged recession and it is introduced, how does GM & Ford respond? How do people not flock to it, even if it is their kids 1st car, or their around town car. Their competitors don't have rare-earthless hairpin motor, Mega-Castings, 48v architecture, a structural battery & a total revamp of the traditional automotive assembly line. At that point all analysis is moot. It's like in introduction of stealth aircraft, you can't compete with an asymmetrical threat when you don't have an equally game changing counter-punch.
RickJensen profile picture
"Musk's $25,000 EV"
Yes, he's promised that for years. Meanwhile, F will come out with a 25K EV PU. I bet before Musk gets his 25K car (that he keeps cancelling).
dmce profile picture
@RickJensen - More uninformed Tesla BS. At Investor Day Tesla presented a very credible plan to get to a manufacturing COGS that is half that of Model 3. That's what enables a profitable $25K EV.

What has Ford revealed that supports your contention that they will deliver a $25K EV pickup?
RickJensen profile picture
You really need to do more reading and less posting.

From a dealer....
"Now Ford is going to add an electric powertrain to the Maverick with the moniker Lightning. This news may come as a surprise to some, but with the outrageous sales that Ford has been having on their electric vehicles, there’s no doubt they want to add electric powertrains to more of their popular vehicles."
azep14 profile picture
Think ford needs to crank out a pickup on its next gen frame that people like me will want. The lightning is a good start but I’d still rather get one of their ice trucks. I’m still on the sidelines. I need a truck with longer range and one that can handle AZ summer heat on a drive to SD and one that can cruise the snow in the mountains without the range taking a dump.
@azep14 your statement is getting more and more familiar and reinforces my belief this grand revolution will not be quite as fast as some suspected
cssys profile picture
ford has a 100 year start over tesla in trucks. farmers will not want a tesla truck..
@cssys Up until about a week ago I would never consider trading in my F150 for a Tesla. But after seeing the woke Ford Ranger advertisement, I actually went to Teslas site to price out a configuration
RickJensen profile picture
@Paul Woodford
Please, go to Tesla.
F has proven it can play in this space, no doubt about that. The Mustang Mach e is apparently a great vehicle. I’m sure F will crank out a lot of electric vans, and some trucks too. But I’m just highly skeptical they can dominate. F is highly unprofitable in this category now, while Tesla is already cranking out billions in profit. GM seems to have far more clarity than F with their purpose, but even with that GM will struggle to keep up with Tesla. There’s apparently a 1.5 Million unit backlog for the Tesla cybertruck. Even if half of those reservations are vapor, on top of Tesla’s model 3 and Y foothold, the CT backlog presents a massive problem for F and GM. I just don’t see how F can gain the scale needed to reach its own profitability goals.
matttrakker profile picture
@Paul Woodford step 1 it’s already profitable with ICE. The end.
@matttrakker The Rouge, and coming soon, Blue Oval City.
Ford's 1st quarter was down because of a production problem, not lack of demand.
Ford is quietly preparing to scale the EV business, securing commodity supplies and on sourcing batteries to ensure supply.
Ford is waking up.
What I find most amusing is mentioning Elmo's 20 million unit claims with a straight face.
Even if he could build 20 million cars, and he can't, no car since the Model T has had that kind d of market share.
@Paul Woodford this backlog is predicated on a 50 dollar refundable deposit? I’m way less optimistic. Musk doesn’t sound that optimistic. And it still is not being built and won’t be in appreciable numbers for some time. I’m not Tesla bashing. The truck will be expensive and it is unconventional at best and butt ugly at worse. I feel if they can produce and sell 200k in 2025 it will be a big win for Musk and Tesla.
Good article. I agree with many of your points, but I will highlight the two most important ones.

The single biggest impediment to the fairy tale goals Ford is setting for its EV business is market saturation. While there is a pretty high level of demand for EVs the market is getting ready to produce more EVs then the market can naturally absorb. When that happens all the bad behavior begins in order to “move the metal” and margins get hammered. Granted this is not an issue exclusive to Ford, but it makes their margin goals nothing but a dream.

The second biggest impediment is management team that so far is incapable of competent execution. In the two years since he took the helm Farley has made zero progress on costs, quality and culture.

Investing in Ford at this stage of the cycle is a very bad bet…..
Risk Advisor profile picture
Here is Mr. Farley's background:

Prior to joining Ford in 2007, Farley was group vice president and general manager of Lexus, and the group vice president responsible for all Toyota Division market planning, advertising, merchandising, sales promotion, incentives, and internet activities. Farley previously worked in Toyota’s strategic planning, product, and marketing in the United States and Europe, and led the successful launch of Toyota’s new Scion brand.

Ever wonder why he seems to know nothing about, 1) running a plant, 2) engineering, 3) supplier relations, 4) UAW issues, 5) engineering, 6) finance, 7) cost controls, 8) software, 9) manufacturing?

I always thought it was dealers who sell all the vehicles.

A fine used car salesman with an MBA?
@Risk Advisor great point. The guys has been in sales and marketing most of his career. It made sense, because he is a great salesman. The problem is he cant execute. His days are clearly numbered.
ronald61239 profile picture
@J2568 ---"J" What Mr. Farley is selling now, is, he is taking Ford in a new direction. The profit margin's Ford will have by 2026.
It seems Wall Street is going to wait & see.
Tesla launched and became profitable while facing zero competition. Ford is trying to do the same in a tough environment, facing stiff competition while being saddled with dealership and legacy-related issues.
Tradevestor profile picture
@Bogale Precisely. Despite their better (compared to when Tesla began) supply chain + ops, it is a bigger challenge.
ronald61239 profile picture
@Bogale ---If I understand what Mr. Farley is saying, Their will be little competition in selling EV Trucks & Vans. Ford is not going head to head with Tesla.
@ronald61239 Fair point.
RickJensen profile picture
F has already shown how quickly it can pivot.
F has the Lightning, Tesla, still no PU.
F has extremely popular EVs. gm has had to discount the Bolt up to 27% (after a prior discount) to get them to sell. Now the Bolt is cancelled, so gm just needed to get rid of them.

When you actually compare things, F is way ahead of Tesla and gm especially. F will do in a few years what it took close to two decades for Tesla to do.

Hackett, Farley, delivered. CT, Bolt, not so much. And it's just getting started.
Tradevestor profile picture
@RickJensen I am not totally betting against it but warning that the expectations need to be tempered a bit.
RickJensen profile picture
I'm sure Farley will deliver. He's not a promise first kind of guy.
(gm, Tesla cough, cough)
There's much going on at F that most investors don't have a clue about. I'm fine with that, it makes it easier to add when I want to.
At some point, everyone will start to realize that and I should be topped off with the stock by then.

That 40-50% of FCF is going to fund a lot of fun.
@Tradevestor Lithium prices and its derivative processes are in the process of coming way, way down. F is simply too cheap to sell here. I have preferred a barbell approach and owning some F and TSLA as opposed to a pair trade.
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