Entering text into the input field will update the search result below

Recommended For You

Comments (33)

grbbiker profile picture
I just reread this article, having bought 200 CRC shares and sold calls when this article came out. Originally I sold short term call for good money, but the shares started going up too fast so I traded the calls out to the fall so I would not lose the shares. We'll see about the carbon capture, but teaming up with Brookfield seemed a very smart move to me if it goes forward, using their cash and marketing muscle and name to sell the concept. If It starts to prosper on the carbon capture, I'll buy more shares, but putting in way under 1% initially seemed an OK risk. GLTA ;-)
bazooooka profile picture
interesting comments on crypto but I dont think IREN pencils out at 18k a coin reward and for sure wont next year unless BTC starts a strong ascent soon
I also concur with many comments. Find your place and go to the head of the line. Well done.
microfocus274 profile picture
I thoroughly enjoyed this discussion. I would be curious to understand however the logic behind the MSTR short and Iris energy long (potential long). I think the market is pricing in the BTC halving which will occur I think next April or May, which puts pressure on miners and simultaneously increases BTC's intrinsic value.

You can figure out BTC's intrinsic value by assessing the average cost spread across miners today to Mine 1 BTC. I think it's somewhere in the range of $10-$15K, which sets a floor price on BTC. If BTC dips below this price it is no longer profitable and so Miners leave the network temporarily which makes it more profitable for the most cost effective miners, who then continue mining at greater capacity raising the difficulty of mining and subsequently raising the cost associated which raises the floor price. This is the same as any commodity. It is measurable, it is observable, it has continuously played out this way since BTC existence. See the China mining migration, associated dip in hashrate, floor price was cut and mining became more profitable for the remaining miners who then caused the price to eventually adjust back up. The difference between BTC and Gold and BTC and oil is that BTC has a supply cap and issuance schedule which is known and fixed. So, there's no brining more supply online when demand increases except for selling BTC. If you use BTC today, it's pretty clear that it is simply a fair system for transferring value between parties, and it works, it's fast and it is robust. So that is what it has going for it. It looks like MSTR has used debt issuance intelligently, I'm not backing Saylor fully, and I agree this is a hail marry for his company, but I wouldn't dare short MSTR. Just looking at the call options on MSTR going out like 2 years, it seems a lot of people are expecting MSTR stock to double or triple due to the halving. This is understood at this point as a catalyst. Simultaneously, unless Iris is deploying capital very intelligently, the halving may be a headwind for them. I understand the attraciveness of the Iris balance sheet vs. MSTR balance sheet, but assuming MSTR has many fixed interest obligations, they have recurring license revenue to pay this off, and assuming the halving is a catalyst, it could be said there is an equal likelihood they pay off their debt and make some huge gains going into 2025. This is all contingent on this halving cycle playing out similar to last halving cycle, but what I'd look at is the number of BTC addresses over 0.1BTC or 1 BTC over time, and the hashrate on something like bitbo.io - I think this is a better indicator of what's going on in this space.

Just some thoughts. I'd love to hear the other side of this dynamic.
Kirk Spano profile picture
@uzer0101 in general, I buy BTC, have had GBTC for the discount since article I wrote late last year, and SQ which holds BTC but has great other non-related biz. I’ve traded miners MARA & RIOT.

Not to speak for CashFlow Hunter, but he’s doing it as a pair trade from a bearish bias against MSTR with essentially neutrality on BTC. So, he’s covering BTC from both angles, short a shit stock (MSTR) and long a well run biz (IRIS).
@Kirk Spano Yes, it is interesting to short a BTC proxy, but also one that is involved in creating an atmosphere for more businesses and people to utilize BTC. Going long on miners, if you are ok with not holding the real thing, and you want paper assets, is a good idea since given the relative bottom we are at, they will pump higher at the halving and into 2025. The position will do well but the shorting of MSTR will bring back the gains without much of a hedge, in reality. Both will do well, so I would just go all in and buy the asset itself (BTC) and the miners ...
CRC sounds interesting. But I thought the state was moving to ban oil and gas production and go all green by 2035?
CashFlow Hunter profile picture
@Cliffhanger55 Maybe they will maybe they won't. It's California so anything is possible. We'll know very shortly whether the carbon capture works out or not.
Kirk Spano profile picture
@Cliffhanger55 Cali is very pro carbon capture & biofuel from ag waste.
Tall Seller profile picture

I wouldn’t touch anything to do with Bitcoin and miners. Governments are going to crush its use cases soon. And that will tank the price not Bitcoin….which could cause many miners to go bankrupt.
Thank you, guys. This is one of the most informative and useful contributions to SA that I have read. Or any other forum, in fact.
Disagree on assessment of MMM earplug suit. They built it to the governments specs. It's the governments fault that they didn't specify something better. Also they found the majority of those claims have no hearing damage. Message seems to parrot the bs opposing lawyers are trying to claim. Personally I find the whole thing a disgrace.
Kirk Spano profile picture
@Skezo FWIW, I’ve warned on MMM dividend danger. I wouldn’t risk owning it, though I rarely short. Last time I really shorted heavy was SPY Q4 2018. Though I just opened a SPY put position. Tiny, but if market rallies on debt ceiling solution, I’ll expand bearish bets.
Simply an amazing informative discussion. Well done guys
Kirk Spano profile picture
@dlarson1000 thank you very much, lot of experience in that talk
Very interesting and informative. I love these interviews and the ability to hop around to the parts that interest me via the text posted. They give you a sense of how the interviewee thinks and their focus and way of analyzing companies. One thing would be helpful: a brief link to the bio. We never learn the name of the guy behind Catalyst Hedge.
Kirk Spano profile picture
@RealRural for job reasons he’s anonymous. SA knows who he is and they check people out. I too now know who he is. Very legit. I just subscribed to his service to get ideas that might be opposing to mine. Worth a few hundo to know if someone bets against me and know why, in case I oopsied something.
Disagree with this article? Submit your own. To report a factual error in this article, . Your feedback matters to us!

Past Podcasts

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.