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Pfizer: The New Oral Weight Loss Therapy Could Be A Game Changer

May 30, 2023 12:11 AM ETPfizer Inc. (PFE)45 Comments
Felix Fung profile picture
Felix Fung


  • Pfizer has declined over 36% in the past two years, as investors worry about the company's growth post-COVID.
  • The company's new oral weight loss therapy recently showed positive phase 2 data and could be a game changer as it targets the massive diabetes and obesity market.
  • The current valuation is discounted on a historical basis and should present meaningful upside potential if the new therapy continues to make encouraging progress.
Chancellor George Osborne Visits Pharmaceutical Company Pfizer

Dan Kitwood

Investment Thesis

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) has dropped over 36% since reaching its all-time high in late 2021, as investors start to question the company's future growth prospect after the unprecedented boom of its COVID vaccine. I believe the company's oral-based weight loss therapy

This article was written by

Felix Fung profile picture
Individual investor with four-year experience. I focus on long-term investing opportunities around companies with high-quality fundamentals or compelling turnaround potential. Currently studying business and economics at the University of New South Wales. Appreciate any feedback and comments.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Comments (45)

I wouldn't consider the 4% weight loss a game changer given that the Lilly drug provides 5 or 6 times greater effect, albeit by injection. They have a large pipeline and I'm hoping that a few of them come to fruition as I agree this is an undervalued stock.
For those evaluating potential risks, what would be the risk "IF" the continued data/permanent damage dangers of the covid vaxes continue to slowly open the eyes of those so fearful and easily subdued into compliance that they allowed the injected vax.....and then fear long term consequences?

Would Pfe just skate, like Fauci?
Fed will pause before August ask what price PFE then?Pipeline hugely uneervalued!
PFE under 40$ is a joke. Hugely undervalued pipeline and company!
Can somebody suggest how Prevnar 13/Prevnar 20 should be modelled? Thank you!
@Viv_ban At this time a lot depends on pricing competition from Merck.
@Jimghad hmm…that’s right. Though I think the pricing of Merck and Pfizer would be in similar ball park, so it shouldn’t be a differentiating factor in the medium/long term.
@Viv_ban Their are Countries, like Canada where Government pays for Pneumovax of Merck and patients have to pay out of pocket for Prevnar. (this is for the old family of products )
The newer ones with 20 Valency may be priced higher.
- we can have access to their annual dollar sales.
- we can have access to their price.
- this can give us unit sales from 2021 and 2022.
- we can safely expect the unit sales to be in the same range for 2023 and 2024.
- this is how I would forecast the sales.
It sounds like we are going to have to wait until EOY to see any gains here, it might just be that this is a 35-40 dollar stock for the near and possibly long term. We are in a 1.5 year downtrend for share price, but should get a bump up like we did last quarter of 2022.
Baxloreto profile picture
Point to remember and consider, If you do not qualify as a diabetic Medicare will not pay for Lilly’s Mounjaro for weight control.
why does US allow dependence on China for 90% of our meds/ingredients?
@CJlove4all Low cost of manufacturing.
@Jimghad China regime is totalitarian communist---(granted, so are US Dems)---The COST of dependence for anything essential with ur economic enemy is suicide---or political/corp corruption---

Long past time to bring back ALL essential medical pharma manufacturing to the US-----

China can continue to use enslaved prison workers/Ughers to continue to make Nike shoes and clothing, but bring home Pharma---
@CJlove4all you don’t even know what communism is. China is a dictatorship.
Eli Lilly's drug, Mounjaro, is a better drug than Pfizer's for weight loss.
@Dominic7 First mover advantage for NVO needs to be factored in.
@saff Imbruvica was the first to the market. calquence is a safer choice , now eating their lunch.
Ibrance was first to market, Now LLY's Verzenio is eating their lunch.
A more effective product will always win out in the long run.
I'm deciding to hold for now.....Good news for PFE doesn't seem to move the price positively...
Until it does…
PFE's pipeline has a lot moving forward. That and a Fed that may well be One and Done!
Sounds like a big deal, how long will it take to come to market?
what would the market size for weight lost drugs?
@Searching Values Take a look at the share price of LLY and especially NVO over the past decade as their wonder drugs began selling. That is the potential upside to PFE if things work out - in theory it could come to be valued at a premium.
Having paid fines of more than 8 billions USD in the Last 12? years... no more risk with the bad practices and non transparant contracts with EU for the Covid saga ?..A good large discount is not merited ? In term of ESG you could fine a better animal !
astute pathways profile picture
You can own PFEL which moves doubles its move up or down on PFE
Baxloreto profile picture
Rybelsus has been out for a couple of years. It’s also taken orally and competes against Ozempic. Pfizer must come out with a better mouse trap. We’ll see…?
@Baxloretno_gmail.com Rybelsus doesn't compete against Ozempic - it's the oral form (Ozempic is an injectable). They're both made by Novo Nordisk.
adaret profile picture
Recent gains on the obesity news withered away. However it’s probably a good place to continue slowly accumulating shares.
Hemophilia Pase III success makes PFE even more attractive!
Any ideas why NVO and LLY trade as much higher PE ratios than PFE?
@ding dong The Obesity market is huge.
Globally there are 600 million obese patients.
I do not think it was the obesity market. It was the diabetes market for NVO which is a chronic condition so bond like cashflow predictability. But what is the story for LLY?
@ding dong The sales projections for Wegovy, Ozempic and Rybelsus for NVO and LLY's Mounjaro suggest they could be among the best selling drugs ever, no hyperbole. Their gaining a premium because of their pipelines - somewhat more like biotech stocks.
ronald61239 profile picture
Is this the drug (speculation) that is thought to help in memory loss ???
@ronald61239 They are - but the linkage is still very theoretical.
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