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What To Expect From Exxon Mobil In 2023

Nathan Aisenstadt profile picture
Nathan Aisenstadt


  • Exxon Mobil Corporation's Q1 2023 financial results show a deterioration from the previous quarter, with revenue down 12% and share price slightly dropping.
  • The decline in oil prices and increased competition in the energy sector may lead to slower growth in dividend payouts or the need to borrow to pay them.
  • The article initiates coverage of Exxon Mobil with a "hold" rating for the next 12 months, expecting the share price to drop to $96 per share in the next two months.

Молодая симпатичная женщина получает специальный уход за кожей в домашних условиях. Красивая девушка наносит сыворотку для глаз. Разглажи�

stefanamer/iStock via Getty Images

Since the publication of my bearish article “Is It Worth Investing In Oil And Gas Companies In 2023,” WTI crude and Brent futures have fallen by more than 15%. Moreover, the price of the Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund

This article was written by

Nathan Aisenstadt profile picture
I am an independent research analyst focused on finding undervalued assets with above-average growth rates and developments that can dramatically improve the company's financial position. When investing, I use medium-term and long-term trading strategies that take into account psychological and behavioral variables and are able to mitigate the risks associated with macroeconomic and geopolitical instability.The main sectors of analysis are industrials, consumer staples, technology, and healthcare.When analyzing assets in the healthcare sector, in addition to examining their financial position, I delve into the safety and efficacy data of the company's product candidates from preclinical and clinical studies, allowing me to evaluate their commercial prospects. While the education received at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem contributes to a comprehensive and detailed analysis of biotechnological and physicochemical processes used in the production of goods in the agricultural, oil and gas, and chemical industries. As a result, it allows me to find the most promising assets in a rapidly changing market and publish meaningful articles on Seeking Alpha.My e-mail for any questions and suggestions: aisenathan@gmail.com

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

This article may not take into account all the risks and catalysts for the stocks described in it. Any part of this analytical article is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute an individual investment recommendation, investment idea, advice, offer to buy or sell securities, or other financial instruments. The completeness and accuracy of the information in the analytical article are not guaranteed. If any fundamental criteria or events change in the future, I do not assume any obligation to update this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (32)

Nathan Aisenstadt profile picture

Thank you for reading our article and following us. We appreciate it. As promised, we began to publish an analysis of the companies from the list. We will post articles about AT&T and Altria Group in the next two days.

Thank you all again.
CrackExpert profile picture
Get that HONEY and make me MONEY!
PT Larry profile picture
Thanks for the article.
I agree lower oil prices will impact the share price. But to suggest the company may need to borrow to pay its dividend is a bit over the top. Of course if the oil prices collapse again that will be the result. But the company’s balance sheet is so much stronger now and they have great investment opportunities. So maybe your article should be if oil prices collapse then Exxon will need to borrow to pay its dividend. But that would be the case for 90 percent of the energy industry.
Sourdough98 profile picture
Futures are in backwardization with price support going out 10 years near the $60 dollar range. That is good enough support to continue shareholder friendly capital allocation going forward. XOM is arguably the best in the business. Whether they raise dividends through buy backs or cash payments, I would trust management to make the right decision going forward.
Not near corrected enough to be interesting. But a good company.
XOM is a long-term investment. Oil and gas are cyclical and it is pointless to forecast future economics based on the past. We do know, however, that demand and supply of oil and gas is expected to increase going forward and XOM is well positioned with a strong balance sheet. They are the efficient provider with a breakeven of < $30 WTI. (I certainly am very happy with shares purchase in 2020 currently paying a 10% dividend yield.)
Muted. Green True Believer.
bet727 profile picture
No analyst worth his salt does quarter to quarter comparisons. No mention of XOM lower break even cost heading lower. Worthless article.
@bet727 Oh, come now. I did think it was way too much "the sky is falling", but there were good points. Bottom line - expect XOM to be flat or a little down for the rest of the year. In the meantime, enjoy that 3+% yield.
secorewb profile picture
Good rear view mirror macro analysis.
Do you believe volume increases in the next few years are factored in? Or do you only go out one year?
Do you think it's worth buying a Tesla then?
@gold_alex Is Tesla doing well? Their net income is declining.
A guy a lot brighter than me told me years ago "if you make a forecast, be sure to put a wide enough range on it to account for all the uncertainties.
Your range is somewhat narrow: Price will be in the range of $96 to $96.
Given developments in the Ukraine war and the U.S., China and world-wide economies - and the outcome of the coming OPEC meeting - among other uncertainties - are you comfortable with that range?
@JTFLANAGA Why do you think the OPEC meeting is important?
CyclePilot profile picture
@ALEX_19 likely more output cuts coming. Saudis want $80 oil.
TheOldHand profile picture
@ALEX_19 Huh? Surely you know?
Thanks for article. I expect oil stocks to fall another 10%, which aligns nicely with your analysis. At that point I begin nibbling. Although they could fall further, that would a decent entry point in non-extraordinary times.
Nathan Aisenstadt profile picture
@Seeburto Greetings.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts. I appreciate it.
Thanks for the great article. I think that few people are already investing in oil and gas companies in 2023.
Nathan Aisenstadt profile picture
@ALEX_19 Greetings.

Thanks for the comment.
@ALEX_19 Buffett sure likes OXY!
bet727 profile picture
@ALEX_19 Ignorance!
ndardick profile picture
Good article, as always. And.....I hope you are sitting down....I have nothing to add!!
Nathan Aisenstadt profile picture
@ndardick Greetings.

It's great to hear pleasant words from you. And as usual, I agree with you.
An analyst should not let their belief in a political objective, like Climate Takedown, interfere with their analysis.
Nathan Aisenstadt profile picture
@scout2012 Greetings.

Thanks for your thoughts.
Wont take much to see the price of oil reverse. XOM target price 115 by year's end.
Nathan Aisenstadt profile picture
@Rick Rocket Greetings.

Thank you for your comment and your price target for Exxon Mobil.
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