ChargePoint: The Problems Are Getting Bigger

Summary

• ChargePoint delivered a better-than-expected earnings release. Management also expects to post fewer losses by the end of FY24.
• The company's AC charging leadership is strong but faces significant challenges in the DC fast-charging market, especially with the recent Ford-Tesla partnership.
• ChargePoint remains a "show-me" story with rapidly evolving competitive dynamics and an unattractive valuation.
• Dip buyers who bought in May likely took profit last week. CHPT remains trapped in a medium-term downtrend.
• Ultimate Growth Investing members get exclusive access to our real-world portfolio. See all our investments here »

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Leading AC charging infrastructure ChargePoint Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:CHPT) recent earnings release could have given more optimism to buyers. The company delivered a better-than-expected Q1 scorecard while guiding toward a more robust profitability outlook by the end of the fiscal year (FY24).

As such, I noted that dip buyers likely anticipated a marked improvement in ChargePoint's performance as CHPT surged nearly 30% from its May lows toward last week's highs.

Accordingly, ChargePoint expects improvement on headwinds that held back its profitability growth. Previously, adverse supply chain dynamics and costs have led to a marked decline in its gross margin. However, the company reported an adjusted gross margin of 25% in its most recent quarter, well above last year's 17%.

In addition, management telegraphed its confidence that it expects margin accretion moving ahead, as it benefited from "reduced supply chain and logistics expenses, operational improvements, and better scale."

CFO Rex Jackson stressed that ChargePoint's current dynamics aren't at a steady state, with "room for further improvement." Management is confident that the company will continue to gain operating leverage as it scales its asset-light model while maintaining "disciplined OpEx management."

Notably, management accentuated its confidence in its OpEx management by communicating that it intends to slash its FQ1 adjusted EBITDA loss of $49M by "two-thirds by the fourth quarter."

Therefore, I assessed that CHPT's recent dip buyers could point to management's constructive commentary to vindicate their pre-earnings move, anticipating that ChargePoint's asset-light EV charging business model is working.

However, the recent charging infrastructure partnership between Ford (F) and Tesla (TSLA) could have affected investors' sentiments. Keen investors should note that ChargePoint's leadership is mainly predicated on the AC market, which reportedly has a 50% market share.

However, it doesn't have a dominating position in the DC or fast-charging market. As such, Ford's decision to partner with Tesla in fast charging is significant. Accordingly, the deal will allow "Ford owners access to Tesla's Supercharger network starting in early 2024." The announcement was touted as a surprise in the EV charging industry, as it corroborated the efficacy and superiority of Tesla's supercharger network.

As such, investors must assess how it could affect the competitive dynamics of ChargePoint's early DC charging ambitions. Ford CEO Jim Farley reminded EV makers why Ford decided to partner with Tesla, as he stressed that "other automakers, like General Motors (GM), will have to decide between offering fast charging or sticking to their standard and providing less charging."

It likely implies that the current non-Tesla standard in fast charging is not good enough to accelerate EV adoption. How about ChargePoint? Does the company believe that it can manage the uncertainties of this development?

Management assured investors at its earnings conference that "the impact of the Supercharger network is already factored into ChargePoint's numbers and business model."

As such, I assessed that ChargePoint doesn't expect a near-term impact, but I think it's too early to determine how other EV makers could react. If they follow Ford's lead subsequently, it could interfere with ChargePoint's traction in the DC market, even though management articulated that such partnerships have "no direct impact on ChargePoint's AC chargers."

Notwithstanding, the company emphasized that it's "exploring innovative ways to address potential needs, such as adding direct Tesla cables." Hence, I believe it implies that ChargePoint sees challenges with the partnership but believes it can still manage to resolve these issues moving ahead.

While management highlighted that it doesn't see a "long-term negative impact" on ChargePoint, investors must continue to pay close attention to the developments.

ChargePoint's leadership in the AC market has helped it to cement its influence. However, the company needs to build on its momentum in the DC market, as "the addressable market for DC charging is expected to be larger than AC charging due to higher hardware prices."

However, ChargePoint is still expected to post negative free cash flow or FCF till the end of FY25 (year ending January 2025). As such, it might be limited in its ability to scale quickly enough to capitalize on the momentum of the DC market. Coupled with its higher-margin AC products and leadership, assessing whether an improved fleet network could mitigate the recent slowdown in residential and commercial demand is vital.

CHPT price chart (weekly) (TradingView)

CHPT remains in a medium-term downtrend, and momentum remains with sellers.

Last week's surge likely saw dip buyers from CHPT's May lows taking profits/cutting exposure based on its price action.

CHPT's "D+" valuation grade by Seeking Alpha Quant indicates that its valuation isn't attractive.

While the company has committed to an improved profitability trajectory, I assessed that it had been reflected in CHPT's recent surge, as the market is forward-looking.

As such, I urge investors to keep their distance from loss-making ChargePoint. Tesla's partnership with Ford could also have massive ramifications for EV charging players' ambitions in the DC market.

While the secular growth drivers in EV adoption remain a tailwind, it hasn't given buyers enough confidence to load up on CHPT aggressively and hold long enough before sellers overwhelm them.

ChargePoint's thesis remains a "show-me" story, with rapidly evolving competitive dynamics that could weaken its ability to justify its unattractive valuation.

Rating: Hold (Reiterated).

Important note: Investors are reminded to do their own due diligence and not rely on the information provided as financial advice. The rating is also not intended to time a specific entry/exit at the point of writing, unless otherwise specified.

We Want To Hear From You

Have additional commentary to improve our thesis? Spotted a critical gap in our thesis? Saw something important that we didn't? Agree or disagree? Comment below and let us know why, and help everyone in the community to learn better!

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of F, TSLA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Comments

[CJlove4all]

What % of the minerals required to manufacture ChargePoint products requires
the Heavy metal Separating processes monopolized by China??

90-95%??100%?

All Batteries and chargers require;
Minerals strip mined
Sent to China
Heavy Metal separated (only 2 major plants outside China--ZERO in US)
Refined
Molded
Packaged
Re-Shipped

Renewables are all dependent on China's mineral supply chain controls.

Suicided for the US to pursue renewables until Dems allow the US to strip-mine our land and seas, build massive Separating plants, set up poisonous refining plants, molding, and manufacture at home----

Hey, Marthas Vinyard/San Fran/NY/Washington/Oregon/Boston??? What do ya say, spikey?

[FairVal]

I don't understand what bearish people here are talking about. This company is growing its revenues %50+ every year. It will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

[The Real Cavalier]

@FairVal Lack of profits and cash burn equals substantial dilution to existing shareholders. Three years from now a single share will have probably less than half of its earnings claim as of today.

[CJlove4all]

Another Solendra in front view----

[HugoTheImpaler]

@CJlove4all NO comparison

[The Real Cavalier]

Hard to see how this stock works out in the long run.

[SkylineView]

@The Real Cavalier who cares about long term? …Actually, I do, but already made my cost several times over, trading around this long-term hold. Sold two lots I bought in the lowish 8’s for mid-high 9’s on 5/30 and 6/7. Bought one lot back at low 8 on 6/12 and sold for 15% gain on 6/13 (I usually sell at 20% gain but couldn’t pass up 15% for one day hold.)

CHPT is probably my most profitable position, and I’m not a trader. Just keep rebalancing to account for volatility. I have a sizable position in CHPT, so have skin in the game. I believe in the long term signal, but happy as a clam with the killing I’m making on the noise, without really even trying.

[Johnny Debt]

Great run before the ER, now getting back to reality.

People say that it's all about future and that the money will come but something doesn't add up here. They are burning serious amount of money and most likely they'll need to raise capital at some point down the road.

Expecting the SP heading lower. Might easily hit $5-6 by the year end. CHPT could be a survivor but not in a hurry to buy.

Hard to understand analysts' love for this.

[SkylineView]

Better article than most on EV charging, but still a failure to understand difference between AC and DC charging. To understand, you must thinking charging duration—AC is better for long-term parking, and DC better for short-term (think range anxiety and long distance). For CHPT, AC is likely much more profitable for two reasons 1) AC takes about 1/10th the power supply of DC—think 10 charger subscriptions instead of one. 2) there are many more long term parking spots that need AC chargers than pit-stops that need DC—most cars are parked 95% of the time.

I agree that DC is to be watched. I don’t think anyone really understands how this model will play out. Certainly, the IRA has a bunch of money for transportation corridor electrification, which means interstates, long-haul travel, and charging pit stops. Question is, what to pair with ~30 minute charge duration—fast food, Starbucks, rest stop, etc? You must understand that Musk is pairing DC charging with car sales. On their own, those super charger stations are almost certainly losing money.

So why open TSLAs super chargers to Ford? As I have read, it’s all about nozzle standards. TSLAs standard is probably superior, but is TSLA unique and therefore not qualified for public grant money. By opening to F, Tesla gets a major OEM on board to lend breadth and validity to their nozzle standard. F gets expanded charging, especially DC, which is expensive to roll out, so win-win for both TSLA and F if nozzle standard gains traction. (For older folks, think Betamax and VHS.)

Why doesn’t CHPT care? Because nozzle adapters are possible (TSLA can charge on current CHPT chargers), and as CEO mentioned on call, charger cord is modular, and should TSLA version become standard, just swap out cord and nozzle on CHPT chargers. Besides, I’m not sure how much profit is in DC, but as CEO often says, they want to be in all silos. IMO, AC is where the money is, if you imagine maybe 50% of all long-term parking spots will eventually need AC charging. Plus, there is the potential for energy arbitrage once V2G becomes common.

[SkylineView]

@SkylineView

stocks.apple.com/...

…sorry if there’s a pay wall.

[dmce]

@SkylineView - "On their own, those super charger stations are almost certainly losing money."

I don't think so. Tesla has substantially raised the price/kWh over the past year. And Tesla can install a DCFC station for much less than any competitor because of volume, vertical integration and leveraging tech it has already developed for its cars.

electrek.co/...

[SkylineView]

@dmce …and what about the cost of the land (lease or buy}? Does TSLA enjoy a cost advantage there? I think not, as CHPT does not pay for land. And those fancy solar awnings in the photo, what do those cost? CHPT does not pay for those either. And as many/most grants call for prevailing wage on installation, I doubt TSLA has any advantage there (CHPT doesn’t pay for installation.) . And maintenance? Who pays that? CHPT does not pay maintenance. And insurance, etc, etc…

Just because TSLA asks for a smaller amount on a grant proposal for charging equipment does not mean their cost is less. It might imply that their cost per charger is less (they indeed have no markup selling to themselves), but the cost of a charger is just the tip of the iceberg. All the serious expense is below the waterline.

CHPT does not bear the cost of anything but making and selling the charger, and they do get a profitable markup since they are not selling to their own installation.

I suspect that the only thing your reference proves is that TSLA is bad at writing grant proposals. It certainly doesn’t prove that TSLA is turning a profit on their super charger sites, which have an enormous amount of costs embedded, which CHPT’s asset-light model does not bear.

[Jimag]

In my view, the Ford-Tesla relationship regarding DC fast charging is akin to the Mercedes, et al., relationship with Electrify America and not really comparable to ChargePoint's network of AC charging stations. As you know, ChargePoint doesn't own its charging stations like Tesla. ChargePoint's story is quite different. As I understand it, the Tesla and Electrify America networks are focused on over-the-road charging. For example, I traveled between D.C. and Florida in January/February and from D.C. to the Jersey Shore last week. I needed to fast charge on those trips. I used Electrify America. I have a ChargePoint charging station installed at my underground parking spaces at my condo in No. Va. I pay ChargePoint a membership fee of $20 per month for my personal charging station. As I understand ChargePoint's business model, their primary profit will be frp, network membership fees. Your commentary seems to ignore the difference between the Tesla-Electrify America and the ChargePoint models.

[JR Research]

@Jimag Thanks for adding color. Tesla competes in the DC segment, as I highlighted earlier. That's also where the larger TAM is and is a nascent growth area for ChargePoint. ChargePoint is a leader in AC but not DC. But it needs to overcome Tesla in DC. If Tesla keeps adding more partners into its Supercharging network, Tesla's moat will strengthen further, making harder for ChargePoint to compete.

Also, ChargePoint has long regarded Tesla as a competitor in its filings, which is why the company highlighted Tesla as one of its key risk factors:

"In addition, there are other means for charging EVs, which could affect the level of demand for onsite charging capabilities at businesses. For example, Tesla Inc. continues to build out its supercharger network across the United States for its vehicles and has opened its supercharger network up to non-Tesla EVs, which could reduce overall demand for EV charging at other sites, including ChargePoint’s. Also, third-party contractors can provide basic electric charging capabilities to potential customers seeking to have on premise EV charging capability or individual customers seeking home charging."

[schwabdaq]

@JR Research In you comment you mention :
<>

But you forgot to add this important fact. From Car & Driver magazine.

UPDATE 03/02/2023: Owners of EVs from other brands than Tesla who choose to utilize the Tesla Supercharger network can do so, but they have to pay a higher price per charge than Tesla owners are charged. Alternatively, they can sign up for a membership through the Tesla app. It costs $12.99 per month but it gives them access to the lowest price per kWh, the same that Tesla owners get without having to pay the monthly membership fee.

[SkylineView]

@JR Research re: "the addressable market for DC charging is expected to be larger than AC charging due to higher hardware prices."

Can you attribute this quote? Surprising as CHPT often says it's an SaaS company and AC offers more subscription opportunity. Perhaps they mean short term, as hardware sales precede software sales? Need context.

[Mallamace]

I am both an investor and user of Charge Point. Honest opinion after purchasing an EV. These ChargePoint stations are completely unreliable. I can only charge 50% of the time, either the network goes down, or power goes out. I still get charged, no customer support for resolving. I am ready to un-invest... Oh did I mention I am getting charging at 0.16/kWh? My company subsidizes most of it, so even at this price it's not worth it. I have over 30 shares, ready to dump.

[mcu7300]

@Mallamace Chargepoint does not set the prices at the stations. After install, the station is controlled by the person or company that bought the station.

[schwabdaq]

A few of interesting things said on the CC. One was that the majority of cars that use the ChargePoint chargers were used by Tesla's.... I thought that point was interesting. ... So maybe there just aren't enough Superstations or Tesla owners and future Ford owners don't want to pay the premium for fast charges unless they are on a long trip. ...
Second, I'm confused from what J Olsen said about CHPT not repairing chargers. CHPT on the call said they are now extra efficient in repairing downed chargers. Either they know remotely that the charger is down from the network or customers call to complain. Either way they claim they are now focused to get them back online within a day or two. Not what J Olsen claimed. ....
Third, CHPT claims 243K ports of which 21K are DC chargers in their network. Ford in their release claims they will have access to 12K Tesla Superchargers... Another point is that CHPT has working agreements with EVGO and others to allow "their CHPT subscribers" who are on the CHPT app to "locate and use" non-CHPT chargers at the same price as CHPT charges their networked subscribers..... Tesla charges a big premium for non-Tesla drivers with an adapter to use Tesla DC ports on top of the higher DC charge rate....
Finally I have a question: If I were to drive from NY to Miami does anyone know how many Tesla Superstations there are along I-95 vs non-Tesla DC charge stations?
Just looking on the map there seems to be way more non-Tesla stations but I don't know of those how many are fast DC chargers.

Thanks.

[Puck]

@schwabdaq I started counting north from Miami, and of the first 70 L3 charger locations that I found, 28 of them were Tesla. So roughly parity between Tesla and non Tesla chargers.

https://www.plugshare.com/

Set your plug preferences to Tesla & CCS, and if you want set a minimum charge rate (50-75 kw should show only high speed L3 chargers).

[SkylineView]

@Puck That's about to change with IRA electrification of transportation corridors. Lots of money for DCFC along interstates. Not sure if TSLA is qualified; some literature suggests not.

[schwabdaq]

@SkylineView Tesla did not qualify for federal funding to set up interstate DC charging because their chargers only accepted Tesla. That is why they are opening up their system to other EV owners. Not because they all of a sudden felt charitable but because they needed to in order to get access to the government funding program.

[Natturner1966]

Way to early to really know what’s going to happen with these charging companies. I own shares in both $CHPT and $EVGO and knew going in that I would probably be holding for a long time. I bought a ChargePoint charger for my home last year for my Polestar, no problems with it. As far as I know, not too many people in my neighborhood has installed a charging station yet. So, the sales potential is there. As far as public fast charging goes, I thought ChargePoint was only focused on commercial charging. Who knows maybe one of the big auto companies will want to partner with ChargePoint. Looking at the stock price, I think investors who want to own it should only buy in the $7.50 (or below) to $9 range. To the authors point, I’m not very bullish on this company or charging companies in general anymore although I continue to hold my shares (very low amount) for a speculative play.

[JR Research]

@Natturner1966 Thanks for adding color. I think the market needs to be convinced of their long-term potential before a turnaround or if the valuation falls to dirt cheap levels, I guess.

[motto5448]

A penny stock in waiting over the next 5 years.

[JR Research]

@motto5448 wouldn't be surprised.

[Gundament]

What the analysts don't understand is that ChargePoint is intentionally not making profit because they are reinvesting in their growth, just like Amazon did, just like Tesla did. Etc... It's the same story. And we are still at a significant insufficiency of chargers. There will be demand for ChargePoint for years to come.

[Jacob Olson]

@Gundament Yes, but as an EV driver my self. I can tell you that chargepoint is very frustrating to use and is ruining their brand with consumers. Their "asset-light" model means in practice that their chargers go down and never come back online. I live in a major metro in the midwest and 90% of CHPT's fast chargers went offline permanently when 3g cellular was shut off. Customers presumably decide that maintenance is not worth ot as their is no tax credit for charger maintenance. CHPT is a former spac and Linse Capital is constantly filing 144s to sell shares. Plus CHPT is diluting with their ATM program.

[TheeSoluution]

@Gundament ..Bingo,they are setting the table for Massive Growth, the $$ will come and then some,the SP will take care of itself and my bet is today's SP will be a very distant memory...that's just my take on things

[SkylineView]

@Jacob Olson charger maintenance is the responsibility of the owner (generally property owner) and they currently have little incentive to repair. As I have been commenting for some time, property owners have different reasons for installing chargers than EV drivers have in seeking them out. Mostly, they are to future-proof new parking facilities, and appear as an amenity. Owners are not very concerned with whether they work or not until they get a tenant complaint. In one case I am familiar with, Avis was a tenant and complained they could not charge their handful of new rental EVs. CHPT was called and upgraded the older 3G modules on warranty, although the owner had to press that point. Bottom line: owner needs to take initiative to repair & maintain, and only a tenant, not transient EV owners, will induce them to do so.

[ndardick]

Yup. Agree. Won't touch for fear of shock, electric or financial.

[JR Research]

@ndardick HAHAHAHA! All three together.

[Wileycoy]

@ndardick Nobody knows for sure just which charging companies will survive and thrive in the coming electric car era. CHPT has a good of chance as any of them if they can financially stay in the game.

[ndardick]

@Wileycoy The operative word in your sentence is "if". Note what recently happened to the price of EVGO when it had to raise more cash to stay alive:

seekingalpha.com/...