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Apple: Ripe For Disappointment After WWDC

Jun. 05, 2023 3:46 PM ETApple Inc. (AAPL)DIS, INTC, META, U99 Comments
Bill Maurer profile picture
Bill Maurer


  • Apple unveiled new Mac products and its mixed reality headset, Vision Pro, at WWDC, but shares pulled back from all-time highs.
  • The stock may be overextended, and the Vision Pro's high price and 2024 launch date disappointed investors.
  • Apple shares typically underperform during WWDC week, and the stock may face near-term technical pressure.
Red down arrow and houses. Falling real estate market. Low housing prices. Reduced mortgage rates. Crisis. Maintenance cost. recession. Housing bubbles burst. Bankrupt and foreclose. Affordable home

Andrii Yalanskyi

On Monday, technology giant Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) kicked off its annual Worldwide Developers Conference ("WWDC"). This year's event was likely the most anticipated gathering in several years, as everyone was waiting to see the company unveil its mixed reality headset. Apple delivered its first

This article was written by

Bill Maurer profile picture
I am a market enthusiast and part-time trader. I started writing for Seeking Alpha in 2011, and it has been a tremendous opportunity and learning experience. I have been interested in the markets since elementary school, and hope to pursue a career in the investment management industry. I have been active in the markets for several years, and am primarily focused on long/short equities. I hold a Bachelor of Science Degree from Lehigh University, where I double majored in Finance and Accounting, with a minor in History. My major track focused on Investments and Financial Analysis. While at Lehigh, I was the Head Portfolio Manager of the Investment Management Group, a student group that manages three portfolios, one long/short and two long only. I have had two internships, one a summer internship at a large bank, and another helping to manage the Lehigh University Endowment for nearly a year. Disclaimer: Bill reminds investors to always do their own due diligence on any investment, and to consult their own financial adviser or representative when necessary. Any material provided is intended as general information only, and should not be considered or relied upon as a formal investment recommendation.

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Comments (99)

"Meta Platforms (META) has a much more reasonably-priced device that has more traditional consumer appeal." comparing meta's poor performing piece of garbage w/apple's sophisticated hdst is like comparing a yugo w/a ferrari. apple will change the world again with spatial computing. all it takes to realize that is some vision.
@nate311 so far we are comparing a device that's been in use for years with a 3D-rendered demoware
VulpineMac profile picture
@dima_b : "so far we are comparing a device that's been in use for years with a 3D-rendered demoware"
--- Or not. That "3d-rendered demoware" was physically trialed by multiple live reporters.
@dima_b those who've worn both devices claim apple's technology is far superior...which it should be for the price. print is crystal clear vs meta's blurry, renderings are perfect vs meta's cartoonish...apple's glasses worked perfectly, meta's was buggy. apple has become the world's most valuable biz by executing near flawlessly and producing hardware users are 99% satisfied with. meta doesn't do hardware; their expertise is software. meta's glasses prove this continues to be the case. apple will go on to have their glasses become another multi-billion dollar profit producer for them and will create another new industry. we can't yet even begin to imagine uses that'll be discovered for apple's glasses in the coming yrs.
06 Jun. 2023
The problem is since Steve Jobs and the departure of Johnny Ive Apples product hardware has not changed at all. Had Steve Jobs been alive he would have radically changed the look of the whole market by Apple designing radically better designed and inspiring products.
@tw1963 yeah, like the watch everyone panned till it became the best-selling watch in the world. or the silly-looking things that stick out of your ears that became a phenomenon. jobs was an incredible visionary but apple didn't stop innovating after jobs. much of their innovation is INSIDE, where while not seen, better performance is felt, like apple's new chips.
12 Jun. 2023
@nate311 Not very inspiring, I have had Apple products since 1988. Both inside, outside - everything was inspiring and different from anyone else. The products are no longer inspiring at all but work well.
@tw1963 not sure what you mean by "inspiring"?
JackSparrow profile picture
Of course, Apple has carefully researched its target market. While small markets such as exercise and gaming may garner some sales, the major markets will be abundant in such areas as research, manufacturing, design, architecture, troubleshooting & repair, construction, medicine (surgery), training, aerospace, military, and more. Not the individual consumer per sé. Don’t fool yourself. This product will generate a solid revenue stream.
Fair winds mates!
@JackSparrow I don't think it's that simple. The main question is this: will this product meaningfully expand Apple's market share (is it possible to use just the headset by itself without attachment to other Apple products?). If not, what percentage of the current user base will choose to pay (because there is only so much you can keep milking existing customers for more money)
VulpineMac profile picture
@dima_b : "The main question is this: will this product meaningfully expand Apple's market share (is it possible to use just the headset by itself without attachment to other Apple products?)."
--- Apparently you didn't pay attention to the "One More Thing" in the keynote. The Vision Pro has the M2 processor, making it more powerful than any computer prior to the M-series chips and capable of complete independence from other Apple hardware... as well as near-complete integration with it as well.

Try understanding the product before making assumptions about it.
@VulpineMac it not just a question of just technological capabilities, so it still stands
Glenn Abrett profile picture
Fat old company. I use its products. Develop game apps. Their software deteriorates with every update. Their development environment is pathetic. Their products become more feature bloated and more counter-intuitive with every release. Quite frankly if Jobs were alive he wouldn't fire the people responsible for the current iPhone. He would have them shot. This new thing -- are they kidding? Solving problems no one has for $3700? And ugly? That was the one thing apple had left -- all their products were pretty -- a leftover from Jony Ives days. But this thing is an abortion. Grotesque.

The talent has left. The company, in terms of innovation and product development is a shell of its former self. They have survived on the incredible brilliance of the iPhone and the app store; but without the ability to innovate they are dead.

Even though my bank account and lifestyle are pretty much a product of my investment in apple stock in 2002, I now own none of it and have just now done the utterly blasphemous. I bought some intermediate term puts on the stock. Sorry Steve. This is what it has come to.
@Glenn Abrett Steve must be turning in his grave, knowing that you have bought some puts.
SEC Investigator2 profile picture
The MM's walked this up today on fake shares then shorted the stock. Total corrupt manipulation. Nobody was buying this stock today it was all planned manipulation by the typical MM's from GS and their corrupt friends.
For the past two+ decades, whenever AAPL hit the all time high, we see this type of articles, saying this and that and all mumbo jumbo. Way back then, people said AAPL can never be a $1T company. Well, here we are at $3T. I'm tired of people not thinking and investing in the long term, especially these so called professional analysts, generations after generations publishing non-senses. For AAPL, just buy and hold and that's it. See you at next AAPL's all time high. -- from a very loooong term decades long AAPL stockholder.
Sell the news activity at same time as product announcement
thotdoc profile picture
Author-You made a point of comparing Apple and Meta. So, You can't tell the difference between what Apple is doing and what Meta is doing apparently.

Apple just gut punched their competitors.

Since learning to program FORTRAN on IBM Mainframes, I've watched improving the user interface as the goal that drives real computer innovation.

Thanks to Xerox, Apple owns and has always owned the user interface.

The interface includes the walled garden as well as the interactions between human and computer.

Anyone...describe another future that doesn't include spatial computing...interacting with a hologram as screen by thoughts and movements.

Apple just told us what they were doing...spatial computing...many here did not recognize what they were saying. They also told us it took 5000 patents, that it took all the resources of the richest and arguably the most talented engineering staff in the user interface space. You must recognize that to do this they had to develop their own chips.

And...so many don't get it.
06 Jun. 2023
@thotdoc Your point is 100% on the mark. Apple just changed the way we will interact with computers and home electronics over the next few years. The patent portfolio is also quite impressive.
Sea Lucas profile picture
The Vision Pro reveal today was a territorial flag planted on our future. The potential is astounding. I’m not going to buy Apple at this premium, but today’s demo certainly made me wish I’d bought it last year.
thotdoc profile picture
@Sea Lucas I like the metaphor...saw it.

When you spend time reading on SA, you get an appreciation for how limited many people's vision is and why retail loses $$. That feeling...I should have bought...doesn't go away when you don't have the stock and you see what they are capable of. Best of luck in your investing.
LarryBeagle profile picture
@Sea Lucas Apple will sell every unit they produce and have long wait lists. If it were available tomorrow, I would buy it for the entertainment value alone. Remember when we spent that much for a plasma TV? Consider the potential for virtual travel, museums, National Parks? This would cover the cost of only one trip.
VulpineMac profile picture
The author made a lot of invalid assumptions in his thesis. Clearly he has no concept of the things Apple announced today.
Bill Maurer profile picture

Like? What did I assume that's so wrong?
VulpineMac profile picture
@Bill Maurer : "What did I assume that's so wrong?"
--- Well, since you ask...:
• "... and the Vision Pro's high price and 2024 launch date disappointed investors."
--- How can investors be disappointed in what they don't even understand what they're looking at? They saw an announcement for a product that's completely different from what they expected. They expected something that would look and perform like the Meta Quest devices--which themselves are little more than the tethered version of 3D goggles we had 23 years ago, using grossly underpowered processors and needing huge, heavy batteries that make the headsets uncomfortable to wear at best and downright painful for some. The Quest devices use Qualcomm mobility processors that aren't even comparable to 20-year-old Pentium processors while the Apple Vision Pro is using a full-powered M2 desktop-grade processor that is far more powerful and efficient. Actual investors are NOT disappointed; TRADERS simply don't understand what they're seeing.

• "One of the reasons why the headset was so important for Apple was that expectations were calling for an acceleration in revenue growth later this year. Analysts were projecting Apple's top line would grow by more than 7.5% in the all-important December quarter (Apple's fiscal Q1)."
--- You seem to be assuming that those "expectations" are impossible. Why? Just because the Vision Pro won't be available until next year? What about the new Macs? What about the new iPhone? And what about the fact that Apple is no longer "Supply Constrained"? I'd say that was an invalid assumption.

• "In the 17 years here where Apple has been down this one particular week, the average decline is nearly 4%."
--- Even acknowledging the truth of this statement, what of the balance of those years? With the exception of four years out of the last 17, the year ended up HIGHER than the WWDC week and the average increase roughly 24% per year, even AFTER those declines. Were it not for those splits, Apple's stock would be almost $9,000/share. That is not a sign of weakness in the company and a big sign of a market that does not understand the company, even as it takes advantage of that company's growth. If I recall correctly, Apple was taken off the Fortune 100 because it was having an outsized effect on that market that was actually HURTING the other corporations within it.

Apple cannot be estimated by outsider analysts simply because they don't understand why Apple is so successful. There are those who blame Cook for his lack of innovation while flat ignoring the growth in operations and customer base since he took over... from a couple hundred million devices to well over 1.5 BILLION devices and still growing. How? Because Apple's products are more reliable, more capable and easier to use than the competition... and always has been. Sure, Apple's VISIBLE innovation has slowed somewhat, but that's because most of their innovation lies under the hood... invisible until needed. They simply do what others try to do... better.
Bill Maurer profile picture

1. Techno-babble was not the point. Investors wanted a cheaper device and they wanted it this year. Remember, it has been reportedly delayed multiple times already.

2. I discussed in this article Apple not being supply constrained. But you also have one less sales week as a headwind. Also, as I've previously discussed, Apple could have the weakest iPhone launch in years this year due to the chip splitting introduced last year.

As for Tim Cook, skeptics would say that he just took over a growing business from Jobs.
Looking at the Keynote now, I am actually very impressed by the VR/AR-set. I might even try it out! Never thought....
Hudson Investments profile picture
@fredrik2109 I note that typically the stock declines after the WWDC
Michael777 profile picture
Lol I would have read the piece but why bother. Another Apple hater.
Bill Maurer profile picture

You're kidding, right?
MoeGiguere profile picture
@Michael777 No he's not a hater by a long shot. Have a lot of apple and he's been good. An apology is in order here.
Datsyuk13 profile picture
Looks like it’s made from expensive parts but less expensive and way more functional than any of my wife’s multiple LV, YSL and Chanel purses.
Gary J is Rich on AMZN profile picture

But not my HDTV.
Cristi_an profile picture
The Vision Pro is wow!! What are you talking about?
I did hope the VR set would target professional users, and so it happened. The cheaper version may come later when individual consumers find some use of the technology. Apple is doing it right again.
Sounds like this headset does everything, was it designed by Homer Simpson……
Gary J is Rich on AMZN profile picture

Munster on CNBC trying to walk back his under 3k comment lol
As I see the keynote, I see that all other news are significant too. Good developments all over. VR set is the icing of the cake.
Hudson Investments profile picture
I know Apple did ten years of homework and took into account the shortcomings from Meta, Microsoft and all the others. I like the fact that it won’t make you dizzy and others can see your eyes. Seeing through the lens is important. I see it and a neutral now but likely knowing Apple fanboys, people will line up to buy the Vision Pro.
@Hudson Investments :

Just for clarity, they are not lenses but micro-OLED displays on the inside. On the outside, people are seeing an image of your eyes from internal cameras projecting on an external screen. https://youtu.be/OFvXuyITwBI
Hudson Investments profile picture
@~BigZ~ Yes they have 4K screens in each eye. There are places for corrective lenses to compensate for individual RX’s .
Bill West profile picture
Mark my words--------
When the true deep ar/vr thinkers and visionary folks look at the now revealed Apple Headset and its capabilities the stock is going to go much much higher. All the "talking heads" and business channel blowhards will regret the day they took their all too familiar "too expensive, doesn't do anything, nobody will buy it BS"
Right now we're seeing the same old BS they used on the iPhone, the Watch, and the iPad so party on Garth but be forewarned your current vision will end in tears.!
In the beginning of 2024 when this goes on sale it will sell out in 5 minutes guaranteed.....!!!
Que the haters and shortees in 3....2.....1.....
Hudson Investments profile picture
@Bill West I agree because they said it will take the place of a tv, headset,computer, gaming device and work tool.
@Bill West I truly agree.

I was very curious about it and was a bit worried but now I am fully convinced that they have created the next big thing.

Yes it is crazy expensive. Yes it is like no practical use whatsoever.w

Well same things were said
About iPhone the watch and so on.

But those are the same items that made appl hit all time highs on the day the Vision Pro was unveiled.

Btw I am so happy they slapped all the rumors regarding the name.

They chose to name it with a word that will never be out of style as it is part of our DNA. The vision.

It’s just another sell on news. Not a big deal!!
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