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Made Easy - Finance profile picture
Made Easy - Finance
Article Update 23 Jun. 2023
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ari5000 profile picture
"IREN can justify a $600mil market cap and a $1.2bn market cap if Bitcoin trades above $69,000 and $100,000 respectively. " If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.
New Issue Stocks profile picture
Your next update should include the HPC (High-performance computing) side of the business. From what I have researched, they can get a substantial income from renting out their facilities to AI companies for HPC. APLD claims they can get high rates of return on HPC from their prospective clients.
That would allow them to switch from Bitcoin to HPC when the price of Bitcoin is depressed, similar to what they are doing with electricity at the Texas site.
Made Easy - Finance profile picture
@New Issue Stocks Sure, we have a take on it. Stay tuned.
New Issue Stocks profile picture
@Made Easy - Finance I'm sure you do. Dell Computer has been working with them to test HPC systems for several years. They also have shown some creative AI technology with software in Texas. The creation of the software tells the system that electricity has more profit than mining and flicks the switch—essentially lowering mining power and selling power back to the grid.
ATTNSC profile picture
How does bitcoin halving in 2024 affect your projections?
Made Easy - Finance profile picture
@ATTNSC Hey, the projections are based on our Bitcoin halving expectations, we used $69k and $100k as the baseline to compute the price targets stated in the article.
ATTNSC profile picture
@Made Easy - Finance Thanks, very helpful.
Made Easy - Finance profile picture
@ATTNSC You're most welcome.
Personally, I think you are about 6 months slow on your recommendation. I loaded up on Iren in December when it was just above $1.05 and did the same with CLSK at $1.75 when you were still recommending Bitcoin over miners. I guess time will eventually prove out when was the best time to go into miners but I'm pretty happy with my returns from my last December purchases when everyone else seemed scared to buy.
Made Easy - Finance profile picture
@coach24 Yeah, we were. We took a break for a few months from writing. But our thesis on Bitcoin vs miners overall didn't change. We knew miners have more Beta to Bitcoin, but one has to take on more unsystematic risk and something like CORZ could happen to any miners. IREN looks like one of them: potential ban from Bitcoin mining, loan default, and others. We have a strategy on Bitcoin that can rival miners' returns while taking substantially less risk (less than half the risk).
bazooooka profile picture
Seems easier/safer to buy BTC if the upside in IREN is only 600M marketcap. 69K BTC is a well over a double from today's btc price and doesn't have downside risk of a btc miner.

""As for the upside, assuming IREN's short-term 9.1 EH/s expected capacity, IREN can justify a $600mil market cap and a $1.2bn market cap if Bitcoin trades above $69,000 and $100,000 respectively. ""
Made Easy - Finance profile picture
@bazooooka Yes, but if Bitcoin hits $100k, it's a 400% compared to Bitcoin's 230% return. We're expecting bitcoin to hit $100k.

This return is further amplified if options are used.
bazooooka profile picture
@Made Easy - Finance agreed that miners will overshoot if Bitcoin get in a strong bull market. But not sure the extra risk is worth the extra juice.
Made Easy - Finance profile picture
@bazooooka Yeah. Haha. Higher risk higher return. Our call options on bitcoin are already in the money. Should outperform even miner’s return.
This play seems more volatile. I've been following bitfarms, hive, clean spark, etc and they are more likely to move in tandem with current BTC pricing. I do think they have promise, so not sure how much I should allocate to IREN
@Fast Falcon I think because it is Australia based, the price movement tends to lag behind. Have to keep in mind Australia time zone is close to a half day difference. I find the lag opportunistic.
Made Easy - Finance profile picture
@Fast Falcon Hey.

It is, a lot has happened. IREN almost got banned from mining bitcoin due to government policy changes, then IREN defaulted their loans, then finally a guidance for 2024. We mainly invest in bitcoin and clsk. We didn't hold IREN. But if we were to and If IREN has double the upside of CLSK, we most probably would invest half the capital allocated to clsk to IREN to capture the same return but risking half the capital. Then we would keep half the capital as dry powder.
Made Easy - Finance profile picture
@Mr Nobodi You holding IREN? What are you thoughts on our view?
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