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Carrefour: Surprisingly Exciting

Jul. 04, 2023 8:03 AM ETCarrefour SA (CRERF), CRRFYADRNY, AHODF, ATAAY7 Comments
Daan Rijnberk profile picture
Daan Rijnberk


  • Carrefour is a hugely underappreciated industry giant with a strong growth outlook.
  • The company's focus on private labels, discount store formats, digital presence and omnichannel strategies are expected to drive meaningful financial growth.
  • Carrefour's geographical exposure, particularly in South America, positions it favorably for growth, with the company's strong balance sheet allowing for significant shareholder returns.
  • With a target price of €23, a remarkably strong outlook, and a shareholder yield of over 9% in 2023, it is hard not be get enthusiastic about this investment opportunity.

The main entrance to a Carrefour mall in Italy

Cristian Storto Fotografia

Investment thesis

I initiate my coverage of Carrefour SA (OTCPK:CRRFY) with a buy rating following my in-depth analysis of the company and management's solid 2026 strategic plan, which should drive solid financial growth over the next several

This article was written by

Daan Rijnberk profile picture
Daan Rijnberk is an independent investor and author who focuses on finding businesses with a strong moat, healthy financials, and a promising growth outlook to deliver investors stable and above-average long-term profits. This includes a combination of both value and growth opportunities across industries to help readers build well-diversified portfolios. The articles aim not to make quick gains but to achieve long-term sustainable growth by identifying the most promising opportunities in the markets at a fair price. The leading strategy is to buy and hold for as long as the investment thesis is intact. Therefore, an update on most of the covered equities will be provided every 3-6 (In some cases 12) months to keep the rating and thesis up-to-date. Built upon professional experience and personal interests, Daan has specific expertise in semiconductors and fintech. Articles and analyses are published exclusively on Seeking Alpha.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of CRRFY either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (7)

I have a question. Given the innate appeal of French brands in Asia, one would think that Carrefour would have been a success with its Asia operations over the past 10 years. But "exiting the market" means they failed in their foreign expansion strategy and responsibility lies with the management which oversaw that gameplan. So my base case assumption would be that the same management team targeting Brazil and Argentina is more than likely to fail there as well. So did the management team change or remain in place?

I read the article as I liked your TXN article and I liked shopping in Carrefour. But given that the stock price is going nowhere and the dividend is not that great, just because there is a new November 2022 plan and a 2026 plan (if run and executed by the same team) does not inspire confidence. The old Soviet Union had an entire run of 5 year plans and where did that get them?
Daan Rijnberk profile picture
@tetonfan Thanks for your question. And interesting to compared Carrefour to the Soviet Union;)

I can see where you are coming from. The Asia exit was largely the result of the company wanting to focus its attention on its largest market (Europe) and its highest growth opportunity (Latin America). The exit from the Asian market wasn't necessarily driven by bad results (although they weren't overly impressive) but was the wish of management to focus these resources on winning in the faster-growing LatAm market.

The current management team has shown over recent years that it is able to execute its plan by exiting Asia and successfully expanding in LatAm. The team probably deserves a bit more credit.

As for management team changes, the largest part of the team has been there since before 2018 but there have been some changes over recent years. Nothing really meaningful in my eyes.

Yes, shares haven't been a wonderful investment over the last decade but the current plan is generally quite solid and well underway. I do see meaningful growth for the company in the next several years as visible in my estimates. The company is in a better position than it has been in a long time.

Hope this helps. Cheers!
Carrefour could / should benefit from the bankrupcy of Casino and maybe buy some of their stores soon and become even a stronger player in France
Daan Rijnberk profile picture
@Davinz They definitely should! A stronger position in France is crucial.
Aldi and Lidl say =thank you= to Carrefour opening the French market so easy.
vooch profile picture
If they keep buying 6% of shares annually; at what point will I be the last shareholder standing ? (since I'm never sellling)
Daan Rijnberk profile picture
@vooch I am not selling either so you want be last;)
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