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Soft Landing Gets Bumpy


  • U.S. equity markets slumped for a third-straight week while benchmark interest rates returned to the cusp of multi-decade highs after inflation data showed a modest reacceleration in price pressures.
  • The disappointing setback follows several quarters of goods-driven disinflation, which was needed to offset some hints of the "wave-price-spiral" effects on the services side- concerns amplified by a UAW strike.
  • Finishing lower for the fifth week in the past seven, the S&P 500 declined 0.5%. Despite the uptick in benchmark rates, real estate equities and other yield-sensitive segments were leaders.
  • Four REITs raised their dividends this week, while two REITs trimmed their payouts. Commercial real estate brokers faced pressure after CBRE provided a downbeat earnings outlook driven by historically depressed CRE transaction activity.
  • One of a small handful of REITs that has remained active on the M&A, Public Storage was little-changed after it completed its previously announced acquisition of Simply Self Storage from Blackstone's nontraded real estate fund - "BREIT" - for $2.2 billion.

The skyline of New York City, United States


Real Estate Weekly Outlook

U.S. equity markets slumped for a third-straight week while benchmark interest rates returned to the cusp of multi-decade highs after inflation data showed a modest reacceleration in price pressures driven by resurgent oil prices. The disappointing

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Alex Pettee is President and Director of Research and ETFs at Hoya Capital. Hoya manages institutional and individual portfolios of publicly traded real estate securities.

Alex leads the investing group Hoya Capital Income Builder. The service features a team of analysts focusing on real income-producing asset classes that offer the opportunity for reliable income, diversification, and inflation hedging. Learn More.

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Comments (11)

EliasMouawad profile picture
Nice update. I can't believe CCI is still plunging.
RoseNose profile picture
Bumpy Says it all. Nothing has actually landed as yet!
Thank you for sharing the quality facts and charts. Holding On for the ride.
Best, Rose:))
mistydoc profile picture
Another treasure trove of information. Going to look at your 2 week trial. Thank you.
Good information Thank You!
Alex_13 profile picture
Great blog, always an enjoyable read! Not so surprising how "soft landing" became the dominant pundit mentality almost over night. That's after we were told all year in '22 by these same folks the market will be headed down and everything else will only be getting worse throughout '23. The more I see the soft landing thesis pushed the deeper I figure the recession will be, and they'll be totally wrong about when it will start.
rollwave2023 profile picture
@Alex_13 now we are into 2024 next few months bears will be talking about 2025- stay invested fellas if not near retirement
OneSmoothOperator profile picture
Thanks for the update 🙏
albertciampi profile picture
CRE is well past the peak in this cycle. I was wondering how long you think this correction will last?
Hoya Capital profile picture
@albertciampi It's likely that REITs will rebound before the CRE correction fully bottoms - as was the case in reverse in 2022. So still pain to come for CRE - some of which will be opportunities for the larger public REITs.
Thanks as always for the daily/weekly summaries!
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