Stephen Roach, master economist for Morgan Stanley, posted a piece yesterday believing that Asia is very susceptible to a China slowdown and an oil shock. Here are some juicy takeaways:
Roach feels that the baton of demand has to be handed off to a new region by Asia for global growth to continue at the pace it has. We also feel that this needs to occur and while Europe would be the most likely candidate we think culturally its incapable of running with the baton.
As most economists do, Roach throws out a number of economic statistics
in an effort to "triangulate" his theories. Roach believes that an
Asian slowdown might already be underway citing non Chinese trends.
Plus, in classic dismal science speak he ends his piece with the idea that the popping of the Asia "bubble" might cause a sharp decline in oil prices which in turn could help a global rebound.
And the circle continues.
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