Got your attention! Scott Ritter, the former UN weapons inspector, a champion for the anti-neo-conservatives, states in an article for Al Jazeera that the US government has been making moves toward Iran eerily similar to the ones seen before the full-scale invasion of Iraq.
Troop build ups in neighboring Azerbaijan, which were first cited by Stratfor on April 16, and the actions of a CIA backed Iranian opposition group are his evidence for his theory.
Some claim that Ritter is a crank and it should be pointed out that he has a book coming out this October. However, in the notion of fair play, in the past people used to call the champions of "peak oil" theory cranks. Here is an interview with the Fox News Channel from September 13, 2002 concerning Iraq. In light of what we now know maybe Ritter is not that much of a crank.
Ritter believes that the CIA has been supporting a group known as the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) in bombing runs within the borders of Iran. Plus, he believes drones have been flying within Iran doing reconnaissance. Ritter states that a violation of airspace is an act of war.
The Azeri military bases have been discussed in a number of places and its hard to get real numbers.
In May, Iran produced an average of 3.9 million barrels a day. The second largest producer in OPEC and 4.6% of the worlds production.