Nvidia: Revising Estimates Lower

ValueAnalyst
9.56K Followers
(8min)

Summary

  • Revised my intrinsic value estimate for Nvidia to $1.9T, 40% lower than its current market cap, and reiterate a SELL rating.
  • Nvidia's Q1 FY 2026 revenue and gross margin outlook were below my forecasts, prompting a downward revision in my estimates.
  • Increased operating expenses forecast for FY 2026 and FY 2027, reflecting potentially lower operating leverage and higher costs.
  • Nvidia's gross margin outlook remains uncertain, raising skepticism about future margin recovery and reinforcing my cautious outlook.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Speaks At The Bipartisan Policy Center

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News

I recently discussed Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) in my earnings preview article in which I built a simple DCF model, valued Nvidia at $2T or 37% lower than its current market cap of $3.2T, and assigned a

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9.56K Followers
You'll never see me write a long bio listing all of my credentials and degrees or refer to myself in the third person. I love discussing ideas and I appreciate it when people can play devil's advocate without resorting to personal attacks. In short, I employ a long-only, long-horizon, focused value style, guided by thorough bottom-up research and backed by years of accounting and finance experience. When people ask me "what do you do?" I assume they mean for fun.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of NVDA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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