CNOOC, PetroChina: Chinese Oil is Flying

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Includes: CEO, PTR
by: TraderMark

There are a couple of ways to play the China oil angle:

1. China Petroleum & Chemical (NYSE:SNP) - this is a mix of a chemical company and refiner

2. PetroChina (NYSE:PTR) - gas/oil/refining

3. CNOOC (NYSE:CEO) - gas/oil

Due to government controls on price of gas, some of the operations of SNP/PTR are hurt, so the easiest "clean" play on a rise in crude and associated benefits is CNOOC.

PetroChina (PTR) has plans to list on the Shanghai exchange ("A" bubble shares) so its very positive once that happens the Hong Kong (and by inference the US ADR shares) will see a spike. While nonsensical - it's still a strong possibility, since Chinese investors apparently value everything on the Shanghai exchange at a 50-70% premium to what the rest of the world values an asset. If such a move happened PetroChina (PTR) would be approaching a value that would place it either as the most highly valued company in the world, or in the top few - fairly or unfairly. This is what a reverse exchange listing (going from Hong Kong to Shanghai) can do for a company it appears.

However, I want to focus on CNOOC (CEO) myself as it's the cleanest play with the least government control on its product - with the Fed announcement around 2 PM, CNOOC has shot up from $139 to $155+, an almost 12% straight shot up. Compare this to PetroChina +4% and China Petroleum & Chemical +5%.

I am not going to chase this stock, but with oil potentially going even higher due to the fact its priced in dollars, along with the demographics of China itself - you have to be interested in a company like this. One must also wonder when people start clamoring for crude not to be priced in dollars anymore - with no change in the long term trend of US becoming more and more of a debtor nation and needing to finance everything with outside dollars - there is no long term sign (other than short term bounces) that the US dollar should strengthen anytime in the next years/decade? Let's see when the drumbeat begins in earnest to price crude in Euros.

I would also not be surprised if CNOOC follows the path of PetroChina and decides to list itself on the Shanghia exchange in the future. If the bubble in Shanghai has not burst by then, that should be yet another boost. (albeit artificial)

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