Thermo Fisher: Tariffs Hit, Valuation Compensates

(7min)

Summary

  • The macro environment has clearly deteriorated, with tariffs and U.S. policy weighing on short-term earnings.
  • Management revised EPS down ~$1, but revenue guidance held as pricing and FX helped offset volume pressure.
  • Tariff-related headwinds are expected to be fully mitigated by 2026 through supply chain adjustments.
  • Asymmetry favors upside if growth reaccelerates and mitigation efforts play out as planned.

Thermo Fisher Scientific in Whitby, ON, Canada

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I first covered Thermo Fisher Scientific (NYSE:TMO) (NEOE:TMO:CA) in a very different macro environment — before the renewed wave of U.S.-China trade tensions. Back then, the story was about post-COVID normalization and a slow but steady reacceleration in

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I'm a full-time analyst and portfolio manager of a technology fund with 5 years of experience. I graduated in Mechanical Engineering from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) and École Centrale de Lyon (France). I'm currently licensed by the Brazilian Securities Commission (CVM) as both a portfolio manager and an investment consultant. I also completed CFA Level II in 2024. I previously worked in the oil and gas sector before making a career change. I began studying global equities to invest my own money, with one of my earliest studies focusing on NVDA in 2017. Once I started diving into the semiconductor sector, I couldn't get enough of it. As a mechanical engineer, I'm an enthusiast of disruptive technologies, particularly in hardware-related fields. On this platform, I'll mainly be sharing investment ideas in semiconductors, robotics, and energy. I believe in investing in companies within oligopolistic sectors with high barriers to entry. I also tend to avoid smaller companies, as my experience has shown that the perceived risks in such companies are often underestimated. I really like writing and have published some books on other subjects. I hope my articles on Seeking Alpha can provide small investors with great investment ideas. My investment approach emphasizes growth at a reasonable price, primarily with a mid- to long-term investment horizon. If you have any questions or comments on my thesis, please reach out via direct message or leave a comment on the article. Keep investing!

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