An operating interruption on September 30 at Syncrude, the world’s largest oil sands mine and upgrader, 37% owned by buy-recommended Canadian Oil Sands Trust (OTCQX:COSWF), prompts us to shave C$0.10 a unit from the trust’s potential distribution to be declared on October 31.
At management’s discretion, the timing of distributions may be tempered further from our projection for better assurance of a steady pattern regardless of changes in oil price, taxes and operating experience. Our projection of a 9.5% distribution yield for the next twelve months is amply covered by what we know now, but conditions can change at any time as we see from the latest press release.
Despite current uncertainties, we remain enthusiastic about the long-term outlook buoyed by a strong trend in international oil price and a weak trend in the U.S. dollar. Operating and tax uncertainties have the counter effect of strengthening the industry outlook for oil price.
Originally published on October 2, 2007.