Go Away Or Stay In May? That's The Question

by: George Simone

The bears in this game can find plenty of reason to get out of this market, stay away in May and probably a few months after that. After a strong first quarter Wall Street is beginning to jitter. Major Indexes have closed near their lows in recent down days, while gaining sessions have closed well below their highs. There is no conviction behind the rallies and that is causing the indexes to sag under their own weight. Also, the eurozone's debt crisis is back on Wall Street's front burner again.

Sure, some analysts claim that things over there will basically stay the same, not too good and not too bad, but good enough not to derail global economies. But staying the same is not an option. Sooner rather than later they will have to get off the austerity treadmill and focus on economic growth again. As the man said, countries like individuals can grow themselves out of a debt-trap, but never shrink themselves out of one. Also, chart watchers are pointing at the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY), claiming that this index is about to stage a repeat 2011 performance when the market peaked in April only to tank right into December. Apparently, this is why smart money has been selling U.S. equities ever since the highs reached earlier this month. So check out the S&P 500 chart and note that this index is indeed at an inflection point when the market could turn either way.

(click charts to enlarge)

While this index is moving sideways in a consolidation mode, it could form either a top or a take-off plateau. For as long as the red and green MA lines keep forming a bullish configuration, the plateau has the advantage. That the MACD Relative Momentum index along with the RSI Relative Strength indicator are both positioned close to their respective neutral lines, shows that the market is still undecided as to rally from here, or to decline. That the yellow AD line is sagging away out of sync, shows that investors' sentiment out there is the pits. So all in all, the bears are making a pretty cogent argument that the market is about to repeat last year's correction.

But market as well as economy wise things are not the same as they were a year ago. The market has been pretty good for the fourth quarter last year, and the first quarter this year. The life-blood of the market are the financial sectors, and they have had 10 quarters in a row now when earnings for this industry have been up year over year. As for the North American economy as a whole, by the middle of 2011 the general consensus was that the U.S. was slipping into a double-dip recession. Yet, each quarter since then turned out to be better than the previous one, while weakness in the labor market is being offset by record profits in a wide range of industries. So could it be that business has found a way to be more productive with less employees? Therefore as the fundamentals have it, yes, stay in May and take advantage of any downdrafts the market may have in store for the months ahead. As for the S&P 500 index, the Bull-Trend BGU and the Bear-Trend BGZ Troika, for as long as the Bull and the S&P show the same positive MA line configurations while the Bear is unable to rally to the top of the chart, any sell-off in the market is bound to be shallow and temporary.

The following ETFs from the favored list should do well at the appropriate market behavior. Non-leveraged long ETFs for when the market rallies: FXH XBI XRT FBT KRE IJS

leveraged Bull ETFs for when the market rallies: 2xURE 2xDDM 3xDRN 3xURTY 3xMWJ

Leveraged Bear ETFs for when the market nosedives: 2xQID-OLD 3x DUST 3xSQQQ 2xSKF 3x 3xERY

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.