We find ourselves asking the question, “Has the leadership baton been passed to the 4Q07 leaders of utilities, techs, consumer staples, and healthcare?” If so, the daily list of “new lows” might be a fertile universe for ideas now that we are entering the “teeth” of tax selling season.
While only time will tell, the recent decline “feels” different than the one we anticipated, and bought at the lows, of last summer. Moreover, when interest rates cuts are met by sinking stocks, and a Dow Theory “Sell Signal,” it always makes us nervous! Nevertheless, “they” are going to try and talk-up last week’s action as a successful “retest” of the August lows and may just be able to get things going on the upside, which is why we are trading some “long” indexes like the S&P 500 Geared Fund (GRE) with a close trading stop-loss point in keeping with the George Soros quote,“Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited."