'The Market Is Taking Things Very Well'

by: Roger Nusbaum

Roger Nusbaum submits: That is how Ron Insana opened the segment with Art Cashin.

This is very important. Bear markets start very calmly. They just rollover slowly. Bear markets do not start with crashes. I think the action Wednesday was a microcosm for what tops look like. I am not calling a top because that is not my strong suit.

The next time a bear market starts, whether that's today or sometime in the future, the declines will start out to be very manageable.

This chart is the first six months after the peak of the S+P 500 in 2000. The market gave investors plenty of time to slowly reduce exposure as the market flirted with its 200 DMA several times before going below it for good in October of that year.

The magnitude of the next bear will probably be different but I think the way it looks on the chart for the first few months will be very similar.

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