The Ivy Portfolio For July

Includes: VB, VEU, VTI, VWO
by: Scott's Investments

Near the end of January I added a free investment tool to Scott's Investments, a daily Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet. This tool uses Google Docs and Yahoo Finance to track the 10 month moving average signals for two of the portfolios listed in Mebane Faber's book The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets. Faber discusses 5, 10, and 20 security portfolios that have trading signals based on long-term moving averages.

The Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet tracks the 5 and 10 ETF Portfolios listed in Faber's book. When a security is trading below its 10 month simple moving average, the position is listed as "Cash". When the security is trading above its 10 month simple moving average the positions is listed as "Invested".

The spreadsheet's signals update once daily (typically in the evening) using dividend/split adjusted closing price from Yahoo Finance. The 10 month simple moving average is based on the most recent 10 months including the current month's most recent daily closing price.

The page also displays the percentage each ETF within the Ivy 10 and Ivy 5 Portfolio is above or below the current 10 month simple moving average is now provided. I also added additional price signals based on unadjusted dividend/split data from Yahoo.

If an ETF has paid a dividend or split within the past 10 months, then when comparing the adjusted/unadjusted data you will see differences in the percent an ETF is above/below the 10 month SMA. This could also potentially impact whether an ETF is above or below its 10 month SMA. Regardless of whether you prefer the adjusted or unadjusted data, it is important to remain consistent in your approach.

I do not track these portfolios as hypothetical portfolios like I do with other portfolios on the site. However, I will periodically post backtest results on the strategy. For the most recent test results click here.

Also, the signals update daily but this does not mean I endorse checking the signals each day. It simply gives the spreadsheet more versatility to have the signals update daily.

The current signals based on June's closing prices are below. While equity markets have had a turbulent few weeks and months, the US-linked equity ETFs, VB and VTI, remain above their long-term moving average. Real-estate linked ETFs remain the strongest sector in terms of their percent above their 10 month moving average. Global equity ETFs, VWO and VEU, remain below their respective long-term moving averages.

The first table is based on adjusted historical data and the second table is based on unadjusted price data: (Click to enlarge)

Disclosure: None