Nokia Results Should Boost Microsoft Stock

| About: Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
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Nokia (NOK) reported results that were much better than expected yesterday. So what should you do?

Maybe buy some Microsoft (MSFT).

Nokia's numbers were buoyed by sales of its Lumia 900, a phone running Windows 7 software. The Finnish company doubled its Lumia sales, to 4 million, against 2 million in the first quarter.

That's pretty good. But we're talking about a market that totaled 419 million units in the first quarter, and about that same number in the second quarter. Even Nokia's 4 million units thus equals a market share of just 1%.

So it's vital that Microsoft do even better.

Many analysts thought it was too late for a Windows phone to gain any share of the market at all. It isn't. And if Windows 7 did this well, Windows 8 should do better. The new software, due for release in the 4th quarter, will have an enormous number of features, many of which are tied to other Microsoft products like its Xbox, Azure cloud and Skype.

Then consider that Nokia is not the only OEM committed to making Windows 8 phones. HTC, Huawei and Samsung have all agreed to support it. That last is important - Samsung is now the largest phone maker out there. (Sorry, Apple.) Microsoft is also thinking of making its own Windows 8 phones.

The real money in any phone, however, is the ecosystem. Microsoft has the chance to sell a lot more than software here, controlling re-sellers as closely as Apple has. That should lift all sorts of numbers for the company.

Maybe there will be enough here for Nokia to survive. But given Microsoft's aggressiveness here, and given the fact that Samsung is also going to be a Windows 8 OEM, that's still a longshot bet.

The short odds are on Microsoft itself.

Disclosure: I am long MSFT.