Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Monday July 23.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) Is No Longer A Momentum Stock. Other stocks mentioned: Yum Brands (NYSE:YUM), Whole Foods (NASDAQ:WFM), Panera Bread (NASDAQ:PNRA), Darden Foods (NYSE:DRI), Sara Lee (SLE), Hillshire Brands (NYSE:HSH)
Chipotle (CMG) was considered the quintessential momentum growth stock until last Thursday, when the stock fell 87 points, or 22% after an "apocalyptic quarter." The company had an aggressive growth rate at 20%, with an average of 12% gain in same store sales every quarter, the highest same store sales growth of any restaurant chain. While the multiple of 44 seemed rich, given its 30% growth rate, many money managers were willing to buy it up to a multiple of 60. The quarter demonstrated that CMG has lost its momentum and is more vulnerable to the economy than expected. Same store sales were only at 8%, and the company discussed the problem of raw costs. Yum Brands (YUM) reported a strong quarter with 13% same store sales at Taco Bell. Cramer declared the trade down in the Mexican food space has begun.
What is the right multiple for the new Chipotle? It certainly doesn't deserve a higher multiple than 34, that of Whole Foods (WFM), and yet, it is growing faster than Panera Bread (PNRA), which has a multiple of 25, but has a growth rate of only 11%, nearly half the rate of CMG. Cramer thinks the right multiple for CMG is 34, but he would not consider buying it until it is undervalued, or trading at a multiple of 30, or $270.
Cramer took some calls:
Darden Foods (DRI) is making a smart acquisition, yields 4% and is fine to buy in the high $40s.
Sara Lee's (SLE) spin-off, Hillshire Brands (HSH) is getting hit hard by the drought, since it is a huge purchaser of grain to feed livestock. Those who hold the stock should not sell it, though; "This too shall pass," said Cramer.
CEO Interview: Sandy Cutler, Eaton (NYSE:ETN). Other stock mentioned: Cooper Industries (CBE)
Eaton (ETN) is a diversified industrial that had been punished with the rest of the sector. After a mixed quarter with a 6 cents earnings beat, but a cut in full-year guidance, the stock rose 3.89% on a rough day for the market. The reason for the upsurge was that the expectations had gotten so low for Eaton, the stock had nowhere to go but up. Eaton has now seen a 9% gain since Cramer got behind it last month and yields 3.75%. The company's profits were up 15%, which is a new record, and gross margins were strong. While CEO Sandy Cutler doesn't expect significant growth from Brazil, China or Europe for the remainder of 2012, the strength behind ETN's gross margins was the development of new, effective products that solved problems for customers in the U.S. Cutler has seen some signs of growth from the non-residential construction space. He spoke confidently about the acquisition of Cooper Industries (CBE), a mainly domestic company; the merger should be completed by the end of the year. Cramer thinks that Eaton has bottomed.
PetSmart (NASDAQ:PETM), Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST), Verizon (NYSE:VZ), Baker Hughes (BHI), Halliburton (NYSE:HAL), Honeywell (NYSE:HON), RPM International (NYSE:RPM), EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO)
With the Dow down 101 points, it is time to look for strong defensive, domestic stocks with solid yields. Cramer noted that European news prevented PetSmart (PETM) from rising after a robust quarter, and Ross Stores (ROST) was down $3, even though its exposure is mainly in the U.S. Coke (KO) did not rise significantly, even after its strong quarter, and things can only get better at Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) with its new CEO and restructuring plans. Verizon (VZ) reported a fine quarter; although television was soft, wireless is seeing growth, and the stock yields 4.5%. Baker Hughes (BHI) and Halliburton (HAL) have been hit hard on low natural gas prices, but as rigs are moving to the oil shales, there could be some upside opportunity. While CEO Dave Cody of Honeywell (HON) says he sees the possibility of zero growth for Europe for the next five years, the company is taking control of its destiny and finding ways to produce strong revenues. With Honeywell down on European woes, it might be time to buy the stock. Eaton might be a buy right now, especially as it yields 3.75%.
Cramer took some calls:
RPM (RPM) has boosted its dividend to 3% and is "a great American stock that you can own," said Cramer.
EOG Resources (EOG) and Chevron (CVX) may not be finished going down. Cramer would wait for a few days to buy these and other oil stocks, and would look for a good yield. Oil service stocks, rather than regular oil stocks, have been punished more severely, and might be worth buying now.
CEO interview: Bryan Jordan, First Horizon (NYSE:FHN)
First Horizon (FHN) dropped 5% after it didn't meet earnings estimates, although it was already one of the cheapest regional banks, and had some positive news; the net interest margin increased and there was a marked improvement in FHN's credit quality. Loan growth rose by 10% and deposits increased by 13%. While there is a continued overhang in dealing with mortgage repurchase issues, the company is making progress in this area. Cramer thinks FHN is "way too cheap."
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