Earnings Preview: Harley-Davidson

| About: Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)
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Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) is expected to report Q2 earnings before the market open on Wednesday, August 1 with a conference call scheduled for 9:00 am ET.


Analysts are looking for EPS of $1.05 on revenue of $1.63B. The consensus range is 99c-$1.12 for EPS, and revenue of $1.6B-$1.69B, according to First Call. In April, Harley-Davidson reported Q1 motorcycle shipments of 64,263 and forecast Q2 motorcycle shipments of 79,00-83,000. The company raised its 2012 motorcycle shipment guidance to 245,000-250,000 from 240,000-245,000 and said the new guidance reflects consumer demand and the company's limited ability to produce additional motorcycles in 2012. Harley-Davidson said on its Q1 earnings conference call that currency would be a headwind in 2012 and said it didn't expect tight inventory would cost it sales.

Analyst Views

UBS believes Harley's U.S. retails sales growth at the dealer level slowed in June, decelerating from the mid-single digit rated in April and May. The firm expects Q2 gross margins to be below Q1 and for FY12 to be at the low end of guidance. Citigroup also said checks with dealers indicate the company's U.S. retail sales moderated in June, gaining low single digits versus up 7%-9% in May. The firm said comparisons got tougher throughout the quarter. Wells Fargo's checks suggest that the company's Q2 retail sales were strong. Analysts and investors will listen for Q3 and updated 2012 shipment guidance, as well as any updates on share repurchase activity.