Crop Progress: An Uncertain Future

Includes: CORN, SOYB, WEAT
by: T. Marc Schober

Corn conditions remained unchanged from last week. Although conditions are less than optimal, commodity prices have already taken into consideration the current conditions, and until we get more concrete harvest numbers, prices will remain stagnate.

As of August 20, 2012, corn conditions remain at 23% of the crop in good or excellent condition, a 34% decline from last year at the same time. Sixty percent of the corn was dented, and only 28% was dented at the same time last year. As of the fourth week of August, 89% of the corn crop was doughing, compared to the five-year average of only 66%. Seventeen percent of the corn crop was mature, compared to the five year average and last year's maturity of only 4%. Corn prices increased by 4.2% over the past week, ending at $8.15 per bushel, and year-over-year prices have increased by 14.6%.

As of the fourth week of August, soybean conditions were at 37% in very poor or poor condition, compared to 14% a year earlier. Soybeans in good or excellent condition were at 31%, a 28% decline from one year prior. Ninety-one percent of soybeans have set pods, a 12% increase from a year prior. Soybean prices increased by 5.0% over the past week, ending at $17.03 per bushel and year-over-year prices increased by 25.3%.

Seventy-nine percent of the spring wheat has been harvested as of August 20, 2012. Wheat prices ended the week at $8.79 per bushel, a 2.7% increase from last week. Year-over-year wheat prices have increased 20.4%.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.