ComScore predicts 23-26% growth in online retail holiday sales

by: David Jackson

So after the recent 20% scare from Forrester, we're back to a predicted growth rate of 23-26% in retail online holiday shopping. ComScore says that online shopping "dramatically accelerated during the five days ending Friday, Dec. 17  compared to the corresponding days last year".

It suggests three reasons for this:

  1. Thanksgiving fell earlier this year, so the holiday shopping period was longer.
  2. Online retailers used email campaigns to remind shoppers of shipping deadlines.
  3. More online retailers are offering in-store pick-up, and that allows people to shop later.

My guess is that many online retailers have also got much better at inventory management, logistics and shipping compared to last year, and that's allowing people to order later.

Bottom line, comScore thinks that online retail shopping is currently tracking at 26% higher than last year. That's better than the 20% number Forrester put out recently, but is still below last year's 31% growth rate. We'll see how the stocks react when the final revenue numbers are available in mid-January.

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