Auto-Sales Preview: Major Automakers Seen Posting Solid Gains

Includes: F, GM, TM
by: Selerity Research

By Todd McDonald

The leading automakers are scheduled to report monthly sales on Tuesday, September 4.

Summary: The leading automakers are scheduled to report August 2012 auto sales on Tuesday, September 4. Consensus estimates see August sales increasing steadily, despite a weak economic backdrop in the U.S. and Europe. believes that sales will surprise to the upside, stemming from a drawdown in 2012 model inventories, resulting in the third-best month of this year. According to Kelley Blue Book, a growing belief that the housing market has bottomed, coupled with incentive packages should make for a strong report for the month of August.

  • According to, new light vehicle sales are expected to be up 17.2% Y/Y and 8.9% M/M to 1,255,392 units.
  • forecasts that 1,287,603 new cars will be sold in August.
  • Kelley Blue Book reports that vehicle sales are seen coming in at 1,273,000 units in August 2012.

Ford Motor (F) Expected Release Time: 9:30 a.m. EST

Overview: Ford (F) is scheduled to report August sales at approximately 9:30 a.m. EST. Ford is seen posting substantially less growth relative to the industry, according to (9.5% vs. 17.2%). However, the company reported on August, 31 that its Ford Focus is on track to become the best-selling car in the world for 2012, beating out Toyota's Corolla model.

Estimates 9.8%(Source:

Kelley Blue Book: 9.6% (Source:

Technical Review:

Ford shares are trading 5.5% above its 52-week low of $8.82, but stalled just under the $10 level. If August sales come in stronger than expected, look for shares to run into resistance at $9.75, followed by $10. If Ford disappoints, look for support at $9, although the stock could threaten to make new lows for the year. (Charts courtesy of

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General Motors (GM) Expected Release Time: 10:00 a.m. EST

Overview: General Motors is due to report its August sales at approximately 10:00 a.m. EST. Shares have climbed significantly in recent weeks, potentially due to an August 16th statement that GM would be reorganizing its global operations. expects GM to have the most growth M/M (+0.6%) out of the major automakers.

Estimates 6.4% (Source:

Kelley Blue Book: 3.4% (Source:

Technical Review: General Motors shares have acted strong in the month of August, potentially signaling a strong sales report. The stock has climbed 12.76% off its lows set on July 25, forming a bullish short-term cup and handle pattern. If the August report surprises to the upside, look for resistance at $22, followed by the 200-day SMA at $22.54. Conversely, look for support at the 50-day SMA, followed by $20.

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Toyota Motor (TM) Expected Release Time: 10:00 a.m.-2 p.m. EST

Overview: Toyota Motor (TM) will post its monthly sales report between 10:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m. In its earnings release on August 2, 2012, Toyota stated that "vehicle sales increased significantly due to strong recovery of demand, which had suffered last year from the lack of supply caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake." Toyota has outsold GM in three out of the seven months of 2012, due in part to strong Camry and Prius sales (YTD are up 40% and 93% respectively.)

Estimates (Source: 41.8% (Source:

Kelley Blue Book: 36.7% (Source:

Technical Review: Toyota Motors shares have traded substantially higher this summer, up 11.4% off its July 25 low. After hitting resistance at $83.00, shares have retreated to near-term support at $80. If Toyota's sales report disappoints look for support at the 50-day SMA near $79, followed $77, potentially filling its gap up after earnings. If the report surprises to the upside, look for resistance at $83.

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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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