Why Iron Mountain Is Overvalued And Its Dividend Is Risky

| About: Iron Mountain (IRM)
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In this article, we will evaluate the investment merits of Iron Mountain (NYSE:IRM), as well as its dividend, under a new and innovative dividend methodology. Dividend growth investing is lots of fun, especially when investors have a systematic dividend analysis process to separate dividends that are safe from those that are not.

Unfortunately, most dividend analysis that we've seen is backward-looking, and as the recent financial crisis has taught us, forward-looking analysis is all that matters. To help the financial advisor and individual investor from falling into the traps of yesteryear, we've created a forward-looking assessment of dividend safety in our innovative, predictive dividend-cut indicator: the Valuentum Dividend Cushion™. We use our future forecasts for free cash flow and expected dividends and consider the company's net cash (or debt) position to make sure that each company is able to pay out such dividend obligations to you -- long into the future.

Investment Considerations

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Return on Invested Capital

Iron Mountain's Dividend

Iron Mountain's dividend yield is above average, offering a 3.3% annual payout at recent price levels. We prefer yields above 3%, and don't include firms with yields below 2% in our dividend growth portfolio.

We think the safety of Iron Mountain's dividend is very poor (please see our definitions at the bottom of this article). We measure the safety of the dividend in a unique but very straightforward fashion. As many know, earnings can fluctuate in any given year, so using the payout ratio in any given year has some limitations. Plus, companies can often encounter unforeseen charges (read hiccups in operations), which makes earnings an even less-than-predictable measure of the safety of the dividend in any given year. We know that companies won't cut the dividend just because earnings have declined or they had a restructuring charge that put them in the red for the quarter (year). As such, we think that assessing the cash flows of a business allows us to determine whether it has the capacity to continue paying these cash outlays well into the future.

That has led us to develop the forward-looking Valuentum Dividend Cushion™. The measure is a ratio that sums the existing cash a company has on hand plus its expected future free cash flows over the next five years and divides that sum by future expected dividends over the same time period. Basically, if the score is above 1, the company has the capacity to pay out its expected future dividends. As income investors, however, we'd like to see a score much larger than 1 for a couple reasons: 1) the higher the ratio, the more "cushion" the company has against unexpected earnings shortfalls, and 2) the higher the ratio, the greater capacity a dividend-payer has in boosting the dividend in the future.

For Iron Mountain, this score is -0.7, revealing that on its current path the firm may not have the capacity to pay out its expected future dividends, though flexibility remains. The beauty of the Dividend Cushion is that it can be compared apples-to-apples across companies. For example, Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) scores a 1.4 on this measure. Also, for firms that have a score below 1 or that have a negative score, the risk of a dividend cut in the future is certainly elevated. In fact, the Valuentum Dividend Cushion caught all dividend cuts in our non-financial coverage universe, except for one, which subsequently raised its dividend above pre-cut levels (meaning it shouldn't have cut it in the first place). The Dividend Cushion also caught the recent cuts by J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP), whose score was 0.9, and SuperValu (NYSE:SVU), whose score was -10. We use our dividend cushion as a key decision component in choosing companies for addition to the portfolio of our Dividend Growth Newsletter (please see our links on the left sidebar for more information).

Now on to the potential growth of Iron Mountain's dividend. As we mentioned above, we think the larger the "cushion" the larger capacity it has to raise the dividend. However, such dividend growth analysis is not complete until after considering management's willingness to increase the dividend. As such, we evaluate the company's historical dividend track record. If there have been no dividend cuts in 10 years, the company has a nice growth rate, and a nice dividend cushion, its future potential dividend growth would be excellent, which is not the case for Iron Mountain. We rate the firm's future potential dividend growth as very poor. The company's cash flow generation and capital structure are not conducive to significant dividend increases years into the future.

And because capital preservation is also an important consideration, we assess the risk associated with the potential for capital loss (offering investors a complete picture). In Iron Mountain's case, we think the stock is trading above our estimate of its intrinsic value, we think the likelihood of losing at least a portion of one's original investment , so the risk of capital loss is high. If we thought the shares were undervalued, the risk of capital loss would be low.

All things considered, there's just not too much for us to get excited about with Iron Mountain.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.