Country Estimates: Revisions Ratio

Includes: ECH, EWC, EWW, IF, ISL, RSX
by: Richard Shaw

One important driver of stock prices is changing expectations.  One measure of changing expectations is the ratio of upward and downward earnings estimate revisions by analysts — the “Revisions Ratio”.

Thomson One Analytics provides aggregate individual country level P/E, Earnings Growth and Revisions Ratios for the prior year, current year and two forward years.

A July 28 review of the 31 countries in their list that also have country specific funds, that are available to US investors, shows overwhelmingly negative Revisions Ratios, meaning increasingly pessimistic expectations.

Few countries engender net positive expectation changes.

For 2008, only three countries have neutral to positive Revisions Ratios:

  • Canada (NYSEARCA:EWC)
  • Chile (NYSEARCA:ECH)
  • Russia (NYSEARCA:RSX).

For 2009, only four countries have neutral to positive Revisions Ratios:

  • Canada (EWC)
  • Israel (NYSEMKT:ISL)
  • Mexico (NYSEARCA:EWW)
  • Russia (RSX).

For 2010, five countries have neutral to positive Revisions Ratios:

  • Chile (ECH)
  • Indonesia (NYSEMKT:IF)
  • Israel (ISL)
  • Mexico (EWW)
  • Russia (RSX)

Make of it what you will, but those are the countries where analysts in the net see earnings improving relative to what was expected before.

Note that changing Revisions Ratios speaks only to the direction of earnings growth expectations, and does not address the question of valuation.

Note also that Revisions Ratios change over time and sometimes rapidly.

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