Gold Bulls Predictably Sucked In

by: Bill Cara

A couple days ago, I commented that after the dramatic decline in commodity prices and rally in the $USD, there would be a brief reversal that would suck in the gold bulls, and that has happened. But, the precious metals are still linked to the $USD at this point, and oil prices are falling. The fact there was a “surprising” lower weekly inventory number in the US Wednesday is a non-starter for me. The fact is that US drivers drove -4.7% fewer miles in June. They abandoned their vehicles whenever they had the opportunity. A single estimate of the inventory has no impact on my thinking. Crude Oil prices will continue to fall, taking gold and silver with it.

The technical damage is severe, and not going to reverse in a single day on a single estimate (of gasoline inventory in the US). The commodity markets are global in scope and the global economy is shrinking. If you disagree then you are not looking at England, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Australia, Japan, and so on.

The Gold Bulls don’t want to think about that. Traders do.