Earnings Preview: Autodesk

| About: Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)

Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) is expected to report Q2 earnings Thursday Aug. 14 after the bell, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm ET.

Guidance

The consensus estimate is 52c for EPS and $606.40M for revenue, according to First Call. Guidance provided on June 25 by the company was for Q2 EPS of 50c to 52c on revenue of $600M to $610M.

Analyst Views

On the heels of the Q2 guidance, PacCrest published a cautious note asserting that his channel checks at that time found U.K. resellers seeing Q2 sales flat with a year ago, a change from his prior check which found expectations for 20% growth. The firm also noted that the weakness had spread from the U.S. and U.K. to include Germany, and possibly India and Brazil.

On August 8, Citigroup said its survey data suggests an in-line quarter, and that the stock could continue a relief rally toward the high $30s level into earnings. However, longer term, Citigroup said that downside risks remain as the environment is fragile, macro concerns have worsened, and a combo of weaker Europe and a currency reversal could create headwinds for CY09.

Baird expects Q2 to be in-line with guidance and said it is possible the stock could trade higher following the results. However, while a short-term relief rally is possible, Baird said the sustainability of any such move will require business trends to stabilize during 2H08 and 2009, something of which they are hopeful, but not assured, will occur.

The big focus could be initial FY10/CY09 guidance. Guidance provided in June calls for Q3 EPS of 53c to 55c and revenue of $615M to $630M. Guidance is for FY09 EPS of $2.20 to $2.30 and revenue of $2.48B to $2.53B. Autodesk also remains without a CFO.

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Tagged: , Technical & System Software, Earnings
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