Euro Recovers Ground But Downside Risks Persist

Includes: FXE
by: FXstreet

After three consecutive sessions of declines, the euro found support and recovered from a weekly low versus the dollar. However, the shared currency remains vulnerable to further losses as uncertainties over whether and when Spain will apply for a bailout and Greece will receive its next tranche of aid persist.

The market sentiment remains slightly negative as U.S. earning session gets underway. Worries about company results drove investors to safer assets. European stocks were lower, but U.S. indexes opened nearly unchanged, and a quiet earnings calendar today will provide no catalyst in this respect.

Going forward, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book of regional economic conditions will be the highlight of the day, due for release at 18:00GMT. Today's meeting of Spain's Mariano Rajoy and France's François Hollande in Paris is a bit of a non-event for the FX market.

Euro holds above technical supports, still vulnerable

The euro has steadily retreated since hitting a high of 1.3072 last Friday, having reached a 1-week low of 1.2834 on Wednesday. However, EUR/USD has managed to bounce from lows and was virtually unchanged on the day at the 1.2880 zone.

The single currency is now sitting just above key support at the 200-day moving average of 1.2825 and the bottom of its recent range at 1.2803. While a break below 1.2800 would leave it vulnerable to more falls, the upside seems quite limited at the moment. "A lack of progress on any of the key issues the market is watching (Spanish aid request, banking union, decision on Greece) leaves the tone negative", said the TD Securities team.

From a wider view, the Commerzbank analyst team notes that the USD seems a better choice for traders. "In this limbo between a U.S. economy for which 'QE3 plus' has become less likely thanks to the surprisingly solid labour market report last week and a eurozone which is still not agreeing on the conditions for peripheral countries which want to enjoy unlimited ECB interventions the greenback seems the better choice for many", they explain. "Once again the half-life of European rescue efforts is taking effect, which makes way to disenchantment after a few weeks".

However, EUR/USD jumps should not be dismiss, especially if Spain requests a bailout and triggers the implementation of the ECB's bond-buying program (OMT), whose uncertainty has kept many investors on the sidelines these days.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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