Q2 Canadian REIT Earnings: More Downsides Than Upsides

by: FP Trading Desk

The season for Real Estate Investment Trusts to report second-quarter earnings has come to an end, and RBC Capital Markets analyst Neil Downey says that more than 50% of the companies he covers had earnings in-line with expectations, while 25% posted higher results and 25% posted lower.

“Mathematically, the magnitude of the the shortfalls exceeded the upside surprises,” he said in a research note.  The result was slightly lower than expected average growth rates for the industry. “Interestingly, there was very little in the way of themes,” he said, related to specific property sectors, market capitalization, or geography which drove a disproportionate share of upside or downside surprises.

However, the analyst still has “outperform” ratings on a number of REITS, listed below with his comments on the second quarter of each:

Allied Properties REIT: good performance marred by acquisition-related dilution.

Boardwalk REIT (OTCPK:BOWFF): healthy but moderating sales-price Net Operating Income (NOI) growth.

Brookfield Asset Management (NYSE:BAM): solid results powered by hydro and core commercial property

Brookfield Properties (NYSE:BPO): decent leasing velocity, healthy spreads offset by lower-than-expected land and housing profits.

Calloway REIT (OTCPK:CWYUF): dilution from May 2008 convertible debt debenture hurt second quarter.  

Chartwell Seniors Housing REIT (OTC:CWSRF) : short on NOI and net fee income

Canadian REIT (OTC:CRXIF) : Sales-price NOI growth driven by rate gains, as sales-price occupancy moderately lower.

First Capital Realty (OTCPK:FCRGF) : modest internal growth driven by occupancy uptick and increased rents.

H&R Reit: in-line results slightly understated, reflecting unrealized foreign exchange loss and stronger Canadian dollar.

InnVest REIT: had a great quarter. "Did anyone notice?"

Morguard REIT (OTC:MGRUF): stable occupancy and rate gains.

Northern Property REIT (OTC:NPRUF): top line growth reflects improved “Execusuite” performance and higher occupancy in Yellowknife and Newfoundland.

Primaris Retail REIT (OTC:PMZFF): exceptional liquidity boosted by Stone Road Mall financing.