It's Raining Good News On Nokia

Oct. 12, 2012 1:57 PM ETNokia Oyj (NOK)T165 Comments
Kyle Spencer profile picture
Kyle Spencer

I'm not a conspiracy theorist.

Its not that people don't try and hatch conspiracies every chance they get. They do. It's just that people, as a rule, aren't very good at keeping conspiracies a secret. When it comes to conspiracies, I believe in the Square Rule. The Square Rule is simple: Take the square of the number of people in on a secret and add a % sign.

If only 1 person knows, the answer is 1 ^ 1 = 1 = a 1% that your secret will be found out.

If 3 people know, the odds are 3^3, or a 9% chance of discovery.

If 5 people know, the odds are 1 in 4.

If 8 people know, there's a 64% chance, and so on.

When it comes to analyst's coverage of Nokia (NYSE:NOK), however, I'm beginning to wonder if Mulder and Scully weren't onto something. Maybe there is a menacing Cigarette Smoking Man in a bespoke black suit somewhere growling "tank the stock" into a satellite phone while stubbing a Marlboro out with his shoe.

Mea Culpa

Mistakes happen. I've made them myself.

For example, in my previous article, I stated that Nokia's Lumia line would be sold at 13,892 stores within the U.S. As one of my readers noted, the real figure is actually much higher, due to aggressive AT&T expansion over the last 18 months.

The correct total is 18,002. Mea culpa.

Nevertheless, it's one thing to make an error if the correction re-enforces your thesis; it's quite another if the error defines your thesis. If I'm guilty of understating Nokia's carrier coup, then Bloomberg is surely guilty of overstating the telecom companies woes. Bloomberg quoted Nokia's burn rate is $300 million a month, a mistake that was replicated all over the internet. (The actual figure is $

This article was written by

Kyle Spencer profile picture
Over 15 years as an IT Consultant for a wide range of clients including Dell, Ingram Micro, BankAm South and FedEx Data Center. Specializes in technology, contrarian plays and global macro. My articles have appeared on, IHIQS, Seeking Alpha, Yahoo! Finance, MarketWatch, EIN Newsdesk, Google Finance, Motley Fool, MSN Money, and AOL Daily Finance.

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