U.S. Fiscal Cliff Fears Top VIX And More Fear Poll Again

by: Bill Luby

For the second week in a row, investors cited the U.S. fiscal cliff as the top risk to the stock market, followed closely by fears about the European sovereign debt crisis. Concerns about weak earnings, a distant third last week, gained significant ground as Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and others continued to report disappointing earnings and revenues while guiding future expectations lower.

As was the case last week, geography appears to have a significant influence on results, with a clear Americentric bias coming from U.S.-based respondents. In the U.S., for instance, concerns about the fiscal cliff outpolled the European sovereign debt crisis by 9.5%, but outside of the U.S., the European sovereign debt crisis topped concerns about the fiscal cliff by 8.2%. Similarly, 15.2% of U.S. respondents cited U.S. election uncertainty as the biggest risk to stocks, while just 5.5% of non-U.S. respondents judged U.S. elections to be the top risk factor.

This week, I added inflation and deflation to the list of pre-populated answers. Both responses fell far down the list of concerns, but almost twice as many respondents expressed concern about inflation than deflation. While the graphic below shows the week-to-week changes in the top four issues driving stock market fears, it will probably be several more weeks before this graphic offers meaningful insights.

Once again, there were quite a few write-in votes, but there was no discernible theme among write-in responses.

With U.S. stock markets closed today due to hurricane Sandy, the VIX currently stands at 17.81, some 7.2% higher than it was a week ago when I published the results of the inaugural VIX and More Fear Poll.

Disclosure: Long VIX and short AAPL at time of writing.