WASDE: Corn And Soybean Yields Increase

Includes: CORN, SOYB, WEAT
by: T. Marc Schober

The USDA's November WASDE held few surprises, but the increase in corn production was not expected. Increased rainfall helped propel soybean production and supplies. Corn, soybeans, and wheat prices are expected to decrease, according to this report.


The average corn yield in the U.S. was adjusted to 122.3 bushels per acre, only a 0.3 bushel increase from last month. U.S. 2012/13 corn production was forecast up 19 million bushels due to increased yields.

Due to the U.S. drought, there was an estimated 25 million bushel increase in U.S. imports for 2012/13 due to expected shipments to southeastern feed markets, which usually relies on the eastern Corn Belt. U.S. ending stocks were estimated at 647 million bushels, a 28 million bushel increase from last month. Corn season-average farm price has been lowered on both ends of the range to $6.95-$8.25 per bushel.

Global coarse grain supplies in 2012/13 were estimated to increase 1.8 million tons, mostly due to larger carryover stocks from Mexico and EU-27, and increased U.S. production.


2012/13 U.S. soybean production has again been projected up, 111 million bushels, to 2.971 billion bushels due to increases in yield. Average soybean yield was projected at 39.3 bushels per acre, 1.5 bushels above last month's projection due to increased seasonal rainfall.

Exports for 2012/13 were increased by 80 million bushels to 1.345 billion bushels due to increased supplies and strong pace of sales. U.S. 2012/13 ending stocks were increased by 10 million bushels to 140 million bushels. The 2012/13 average soybean price was lowered by $0.35 on both ends of the range to $13.90 to $15.90 per bushel.


2012/13 U.S. wheat ending stocks were increased by 50 million bushels to 704 million. Slower shipment pace and stronger than expected competition lowered 2012/13 wheat exports again, by 50 million bushels. The season average wheat price for 2012/13 was projected lower to $7.75 to $8.45 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies were estimated 1.9 million tons lower. Global wheat production was also decreased by 1.6 million tons due mainly to decreased production in Australia.


With harvest nearly complete, we switch attention to political issues in the coming months that affect agriculture, including the Fiscal Cliff, Farm Bill, and Crop Insurance.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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