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Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization.
"Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love, ending the four hundred year reign of an ancient dynasty.
Have a literary agent who's patiently waiting... At present there are just under 800 pages completed, with about 250 more to go.
Quite the mix of payless jobs!
I was born in India in October 1957 during the waning years of British colonialism. I returned home to native Scotland as a infant and grew up in the small country town of Kirriemuir, famous as the birth place of J. M. Barrie, the creator of Peter Pan, and of Bon Scott, lead singer with rock band AC DC.
In 1979 I graduated from The University of Aberdeen with a BSc degree in geology and went on to defend a PhD in 1984 that examined Crustal Evolution in Western Norway based on radiogenic isotope data. In 1983, my wife and I moved to Norway where we both worked at The University of Oslo. In this period I worked on developing methods that employed natural radiogenic isotope ratio variations in rocks and fluids to help characterise the layering and connectivity of oil and gas reservoirs and have since published a number of papers on this topic.
In 1993 we returned home to Aberdeen with a one year old infant and I would establish an isotope geochemistry analysis and consulting business that would eventually employ 12 people and operate 3 mass spectrometers. Business boomed during the early years with a spate of large new field developments that would fuel the second peak in UK oil production in 1999. But a glut of oil on the market would see the oil price fall below $10 / barrel in 1998 that would lead to one of the periodic busts in the industry which my company survived but would never fully recover from.
On September 11th 2001 I decided to throw in the towel and sold the analytical part of the business but continued doing consultancy work for the oil industry until 2005. In 2003 I fortuitously invested some money in a range of small oil stocks and had become intrigued to understand why their value and the price of oil seemed to be set on an ever upwards trajectory. I had for a long while been fascinated by the concept of peak oil and read a few books including Richard Heinberg’s The Party’s Over, Matt Simmons’ Twilight in The Dessert and Daniel Yergin’s The Prize. And then one day in 2006 I stumbled upon The Oil Drum blog without realising at the time that this enterprise would consume the greater part of my time for the following 7 years.
At that time The Oil Drum provided unique insight to the pandoras box of the energy world that society was struggling to understand. Escalating oil and energy prices meant spreading energy poverty through the poorer parts of OECD society and throughout the developing world. Politicians and policy makers were caught off balance and did not know how to respond. Not much has changed.
I have two sons, both recently graduated from university, a wife who works for the oil industry and two dogs who take me for a long walk every afternoon. I am under a certain amount of pressure to contribute to family income and so undertake occasional consulting jobs for the energy industries. But my real passion is to try and understand the various components of how The Earth energy system works and to educate politicians, policy makers and the public on Energy Matters so that better choices can be made. I hope the articles I write for Energy Matters may one day build into a book and that I may somehow make a living from data analysis, writing and public speaking.
In 2009 I was appointed as Honorary Research Fellow at The University of Aberdeen where I teach occasional courses.
Momentum Trader/Technical Trader/Risk-Range Trader. Use math equations and technicals to determine buys and sells. Move fast when an opportunity arises, cut losers fast to protect from losses, keep risk low, play the odds when in your favor, don't feel obligated to buy as that will ruin your mindset. Plenty of opportunities out there, don't let yourself feel rushed. Business Owner/Entrepreneur first, Trader second, author third. This business limits my ability to trade, so not as as many articles and updates as some of you were used to in previous years. Personal Website being rebooted & launched someday in the future, which will include the live trading chat feature again.
At Integer Investments we focus on US and European equities with a value/GARP strategy. Most articles are written by our portfolio manager Cristiano Bellavitis, Ph.D. Articles written by our analysts will be signed at the top. To view the profile of our analysts please visit our website.
Cristiano is also an Assistant Professor at the Auckland Business School (New Zealand). He earned a Ph.D. from Cass Business School, City University of London. He applies academic rigour to our investment strategy.
If you want us to follow certain stocks or if you are interested to learn more about Integer Investments feel free to get in touch.
“The way to win is to work, work, work, work and hope to have a few insights.”
– Charlie Munger
“People err who think my art comes easily to me. I assure you, dear friend, nobody has devoted so much time and thought to compositions as I. There is not a famous master whose music I have not industriously studied through many times.”
- Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong."
- John Maynard Keynes
My time frame for looking at an investment would generally be between two to five years.
25 years in energy M&A/Corporate Finance business career. Senior officer for public E&P companies, including MLP, charged with overseeing (at different times) accounting, tax, legal, investment banking/analyst relations, investor relations, as well as business unit with land, engineering, geological and support functions. Used legal background to interface with and direct outside investment bankers, law firms and accounting firms in M&A transactions and offerings. Personal investments and trading 15 years.
I'm director of Marketplace contributor success and support in a few other areas on the site. I'm always happy to hear from readers and contributors, whether to help with questions, hear your feedback, or learn how you're using the site. I've been working at SA since September 2012, and previously focused on our SA PRO product.
I've been investing for 6 years. I used to write articles for Seeking Alpha before becoming an editor (while I'm proud of the work I did, it probably would not have been up to our PRO standards, which is a good thing). I am probably one of SA's most frequent users, and have learned an immense amount from contributors, readers, and SA employees.
Beyond the market, I like reading, travel, writing, playing/writing/listening to music, and learning languages. Probably most relevant to ask me about SA, but you're welcome to get in touch on anything else as well.
Benjamin is one of TipRank's top bloggers. He is the founder of ModernGraham.com, a value investing website devoted to the study and modernization of the teachings of Benjamin Graham.
Day trader whose strategy is based on arbitrages in preferred stocks and closed end funds.My group consists of 10 traders.We trade every single preferred stock or closed end fund that provides an arbitrage opportunity. Our research includes stocks that most of the people have not even heard. We have developed our own statistical tools that make most of our arbitrages statistically proven. As a trader I don't just analyse , I trade my analysis and pay the price when I am wrong.That is the main reason I respect opinions only when backed by taking the risk of being wrong.Words or opinions mean nothing in this business and the only person who is right about a certain situation is the one who makes money out of it.
I am a seasoned entrepreneurial adventurer and am doomed to learn something new every day. I have been advising laypeople about investments since I was in high school. I'm suspicious about the self-proclaimed "experts" in the industry, making investment decisions for myself and advising others through due diligence analysis, logical decision processes and top down allocation methodology. I spent 40 years designing and providing the administration for pension and medical plans for jointly negotiated- labor and management trust funds as the CEO of the trusts with investment management, due diligence, policy development and oversight responsibilities. I give back some by helping folks structure their assets to enable them to sleep better at night and develop plans for the future.
Institutional investment manager authoring on a variety of topics that pique my interest, and could further discourse in this online community. I hold an MBA from the University of Chicago, and have earned the CFA designation.
My articles may contain statements and projections that are forward-looking in nature, and therefore inherently subject to numerous risks, uncertainties and assumptions. While my articles focus on generating long-term risk-adjusted returns, investment decisions necessarily involve the risk of loss of principal. Individual investor circumstances vary significantly, and information gleaned from my articles should be applied to your own unique investment situation, objectives, risk tolerance, and investment horizon.
Brad Thomas is a research analyst and he currently writes weekly for Forbes and Seeking Alpha where he maintains research on many publicly-listed REITs. In addition, Thomas is the Editor of the Forbes Real Estate Investor, a monthly subscription-based newsletter. He is a shareholder and publisher on TheMaven (MVEN).
Thomas has also been featured in Forbes Magazine, Kiplinger’s, US News & World Report, Money, NPR, Institutional Investor, GlobeStreet, CNN, Newsmax, and Fox. He is the #1 contributing analyst on Seeking Alpha in 2014, 2015, and 2016 (based on page views).
Thomas has co-authored a book, The Intelligent REIT Investor, and is the author of The Trump Factor: Unlocking The Secrets Behind The Trump Empire (available on Amazon).
Thomas received a Bachelor of Science degree in Business/Economics from Presbyterian College and he is also on the Advisory Board of the Donald J. Trump Presidential campaign.
I am a value conscious investor looking for bargains.
1) Price is what you pay, value is what you get
2) Success in investing is limiting losses when you're wrong, and maximizing gains when you're right
3) Start with business model. Margins reflect value add a company's products bring to the market place. Does the Gross Margin and the Product match? High GMs accompany differentiated products with limited competition that do not compete on price. Low GMs accompany undifferentiated products that compete on price, CAPEX spend, cyclicality.
4) How is the business financed? Be wary of companies with a lot of debt. Great businesses do not require huge debt to generate high returns on equity. There is no achievement in generating high ROEs by levering up like banks, leasing businesses (car rental, equipment rental, aircraft rental). ROA should be telling here.
4) A company's value changes because the NPV of future profits changes. NPV of future profits is a function of changes in revenues, gross margins, OPEX, leverage, taxation. A company's value appreciates when the NPV of profits goes up due to revenue growth, GM expansion, OPEX reduction, leverage (refinancing) / tax (change of domicile) reduction.
5) Markets look forward. Bottoms coincide with maximum pessimism while tops coincide with maximum euphoria.
6) A stock is not undervalued because it is cheap and it is not overvalued because it is expensive (based on traditional valuation metrics). Similarly, a stock is not undervalued because it has gone down a lot or overvalued because it has gone up a lot.
7) Look at market cap when valuing companies. Don't be overly influenced by management projections, analyst reports, share buybacks, cash on B/S, price movements, other people in the stock.
8) Companies with significant debt can go bankrupt. Cash burn typically determines if they go bankrupt before the cycle (for their industry or the economy) turns.
9) Undervalued stocks can get cheaper, overvalued stocks can get more expensive.
10) Keep emotion out of investing. You will be wrong. Unpredictable things will happen. Stay vigilant to anger, anxiety, exuberance. Stay vigilant to thesis creep.
11) Leverage will kill you sooner or later. Companies have large operating and financial leverage.
12) Have a thesis. If the thesis plays out, stay with it. If it doesn't exit. Always have a thesis.
13) Understand the business you are invested in. It's valuation and what can go wrong. Know the business inside out.
13) Don't trade.
14) Diversify. There are many good ideas in the market. Don't put your eggs in one basket.
15) Failing businesses rarely turnaround.
My association with the Marketplace subscription service, Friedrich Global Research, is a collaboration with Mycroft Friedrich, another contributor on Seeking Alpha. Together we have nearly 80 years of investing and analysis experience. I am a former CPA (1990 -2017) and became a CFA charter holder in 2000. I consider myself an expert in Quantitative and Qualitative analysis and have extensive experience in Technical Analysis. I also have a deep interest in stock market history and hold degrees in Economics (BSBA) and Management Information Systems (MBA). I have been actively involved with investment analysis and investment management since 1985 but have been a student of investing since the 1960s. I owned my first individual stock position while still in high school. I am a student of Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett. I have achieved a uniquely diverse experience from multiple careers that has allowed me to develop a broad perspective enabling me to look at the big picture of macroeconomics all the way down to the detail of a retail unit or factory floor. In my youth I was in retail, then served in reconnaissance during my tours in Vietnam. I have been a blue collar, union worker in a factory and a manager in services, hospitality and transportation as well as a manager of professional staffs. I have more than 20 years of experience each in both public and private sectors. I have personal points of reference that many analysts will never have. I bring more to the table than just the theories and models I have studied or built. To understand more about my investing philosophy please visit my website.
Geoff Gannon is the co-founder of Focused Compounding. Focused Compounding is an exclusive members only site for buy and hold investors. Geoff regularly writes about specific stocks with long-term compounding potential at that site. Please visit: https://focusedcompounding.com/
I am a young up and coming professional. I work in regulatory compliance specifically pertaining to Banks and Financial Institutions. I am looking to build my knowledge of investing by actively trading and reading much of the useful information on SA. Hoping to use active investing to fund world travels one day.
Jennifer's areas of expertise include energy trends —their economic and geopolitical implications—and resource sustainability issues. Other interests include shale oil and natural gas, climate change, green and efficient infrastructure, China, India, and the energy-water nexus.
Her work has been published in various academic, policy and business publications such as Far Eastern Economic Review, Economist Intelligence Unit’s Executive Briefing, Journal of Structured Finance, Lloyd's List, D CEO, Energy Trends Insider, Financial Sense, and many others. She has been interviewed for numerous radio broadcasts and news stories, and presented her work at various conferences. From Dec 2010 to April 2013, she was the CEO/President of a global affairs organization focused on cutting edge trends. She organized and moderated panels on global gas, energy security, energy infrastructure finance, and urban development.
She has a master's degree from London School of Economics, and bachelor's in finance/marketing. She is principal of Concept Elemental, a strategic communications consultancy focusing on knowledge work, and includes over fifteen years of financial services industry work. She works with a top University, "translating" cutting edge research as well.
I am a full-time trader and investor for my own proprietary accounts only. I have no direct or indirect interest in attracting clients of any kind. My primary investing interests reside in the equity markets of the US, Norway, Canada, Australia, and Singapore, with overweight positions in natural resources and energy-related companies.
After earning an MBA from the Harvard Business School, I held assignments in marketing, and later in line management, at several of the world's largest financial institutions. After the 2008 economic crisis, I also tried to help reform the U.S. lending industry by advancing the cause of covered bonds as an alternative to mortgage-backed securities. Those efforts included co-founding a specialized online news publication.
As you read my postings in Seeking Alpha, please bear in mind:
1) I describe what I am seeing from my own vantage point. My expression of views is not intended as "advice" to anyone. Not SA readers. Not friends. Not family members. I have never told anyone to buy, sell or hold anything in particular.
2) Any thought or opinion I share is solely with the intent to help a reader arrive at his or her own conclusions. My only motivation is to "give back" stock research ideas, in appreciation for what I have learned from so many SA commenters and authors.
3) I always make clear in comments when I have a long position in a stock. If I sell a stock I have commented on because I have developed new doubts about it, I try to make a new comment to that effect somewhere on SA. I am also direct about positions which I hold underwater. I do not take short positions on individual stocks.
Andrew Left's Citron Research (http://www.citronresearch.com/) (formally known as Stocklemon.com) seeks to expose companies whose management is in some way misleading investors. Left digs into SEC filings, financials, management histories and other data to uncover such situations, and he is usually short the stocks he writes about. Mr. Left has been publishing for 7 years and has created a track record that is unrivaled in short selling. Mr. Left has been cited in Barron's, Wall St Journal, CNBC and other major publications repeatedly for his work. Mr. Left was also an invited speaker at the reknown Master Investor Conference.
Visit: Citron Research (http://www.citronresearch.com/)
Richard Zeits is an Oil & Gas industry analyst and consultant. His background includes fourteen years as Energy industry-focused investment banker, portfolio manager and senior investment analyst with bulge bracket firms in New York. Zeits Energy Analytics use elaborate proprietary analytics and data bases to provide in-depth industry research, market intelligence, and forecasting.
Dr. Kris has two degrees from MIT because one just wasn't enough. Her life goal was to figure out the universe and having done that (at least to her satisfaction), she decided to tackle something even more difficult—the stock market.
Applying the scientific method along with an insatiably curious mind, she began trading stocks, futures, and options in order to find the holy grail to market success. She's discovered to her immense satisfaction that not only is there one way to succeed but many. Combining her love of cooking with the stock market, she's devised recipes for investment success designed to please the palate of most investors. Dr. Kris currently manages a private equity long/short portfolio and writes of her current research projects that appear on her website, StockMarketCookBook.com.
Her most exciting project is applying market timing models to Modern Portfolio Theory to not only give greater returns but at substantially lower levels of risk. (See PortfolioPreserver.com for further information.)
I am Howard Klein, Publisher and Publisher of THE HOUSE EDGE casino investment site on SA. Tip Ranks ranks me as 68 out of all gaming/leisure analysts, and my success rate is 77% with a 20% average return.
For 30 years I held senior vp and exec VP positions in major casino hotel operations among them Caesars, Ballys, Trump Taj Mahal and have done extensive consulting assignments for many others in the US, including the native American property Mohegan Sun, in Connecticut. I have also done special projects for Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. I was the founder and publisher of Gaming Business Magazine, first ever publication covering the gaming industry and have written extensively about the industry.
My two books are presently sold as Kindle ebooks on the Amazon site: MASTERING THE ART OF CASINO MANAGEMENT and THE GREAT AMERICAN CASINO BAZAAR. I have appeared on industry seminar panels and on national radio and television discussing various aspects of industry growth. I am a graduate of NYU's Stern School of Business and did work toward a Master's degree in economics at the Columbia School of General Studies.
MY INVESTMENT STRATEGY: Due to the necessities of my casino consulting business which encompasses many top gaming companies, I have placed my own gaming portfolio into a blind trust over ten years ago. At that time I instructed my money manager(who is a former industry colleague herself as well as a corporate lawyer and money manager) to follow my gaming investment strategy along these lines. 1. I am a value investor first. Knowing the industry in depth I am able to plumb opportunities and problems others cannot see. Mostly I like to identify price ranges over given periods where I believe the market is asleep and I can buy in at the lowest possible risk. 2. I am a strong believer in management quality. Knowing so many top people in the industry allows me to evaluate which ones I believe have the "right stuff" to move a stock and which are populated by corporate drones. 3. I have instructed my manager never to trade on sugar high spikes in earnings or news per se but use the "string theory" I have developed which in brief, follows a skein of news and earnings releases over set periods of time for each stock and then move in or out. 4. I have instructed her to keep the portfolio diverse with holdings in four basic areas: Casino stocks in Las Vegas, Macau and the regionals, gaming tech stocks with real moats not just cute apps.
Overall I have done immensely well and share my views with SA readers and more specifically with strong recommendations and gaming stock strategy analysis based on my network of industry contacts for subscribers to my SA Premium Site: THE HOUSE EDGE.
I have a private small company with a few different revenue streams. I survive off of one particular stream and invest the other smaller streams into the market.
I consider myself a longterm value investor and am not risk averse. I have three seperate portfolios each holding one third of my capital.
My goal was to create a multiframed method of analysis that might allow the average retail investor to pick investments that have a high probability of doubling or tripling. I am willing to cut against the grain and take contrarian deep value bets based on price value inefficiencies. I would like to compound at 30% average yearly gains in an all of my accounts. I have had 2 years of compounding my money at over 300% in these accounts so I would be ahead of my current benchmarks. As of end of 2013.
However, I do not expect to be able to repeat my results over the long term by trading. In fact I expect to sometimes underperform the market as many of my ideas might take time to come to fruition. I will often use arbitrage opportunities or short term swings for smaller gains. I am working on fine tuning my methodology but I believe it is unique and should produce the minimum average of 30%. I am currently ahead in this race and can withstand a correction as my portfolio grows quickly. I am also willing to get defensive if need be to protect capital or even go 50%cash. I run this as a very concentrated portfolio.
One third of my capital goes in a DRIP that I average in monthly to seven companies. I change these companies yearly based on valuation and position size. I grow positions here over time and never want to hold more than 30 companies in this account.
One third goes into long term companies that I see huge growth potential.
One third is in speculative bio-tech, tech and just about anything else where I can understand the financial statement sheets on and has great possible momentum and catalysts.
I often find myself going against the current trends in the market as I see opportunity in others fear. That said I seem to invest in around 15 stocks at a time and try to focus investments into the company at the best value. I hope to earn a healthy return over the next ten years to twenty years.
I am also interested in working in the industry as a career change and am always open to advice. Anyone out there want a 36 year old intern with advanced degrees in other areas?
My main skills are finding deep value opportunities and lucrative swing trade opportunities. I seem to have found a lot of bottom entries even in today's markets. I am willing to learn, enjoy games/game theory, love to read and solve problems.
I am working on starting a limited partnership for 2015 or 2016 so that I can share my gifts with family and friends.
"What looks like a horrible disaster now could be an awesome opportunity." "Buy Cheap when the big funds and others are giving it away"
All the Best,
20 yrs in the USMC. MA international business and MBA. 4 years process engineer at GE aircraft M&I division. Now own a management company with 12 employees running dental offices. Managing doctors is like herding cats. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pk7yqlTMvp8) Second language Japanese.Photo is Upper Gully West Virginia white water rafting past pillow rock Class 5. OOHRAH