Retired Aerospace Systems Engineer and Physicist (Ph.D, Physics MIT 1965.) HaShem Enthusiast, Gardener, Photographer. My main career focus was on sensor system engineering. This often involved computer based simulation and modeling to perform design studies, system performance analysis, data assessment, and risk assessment. As the saying goes, "when a "well known physicist says something cannot be done, it will be accomplished within a year." Early in my career, while at MIT's Lincoln Laboratory, which is physically located in the next town, Lexington (;-), I worked with ARPA's Jason Committee members. Exposure to such fine minds was quite beneficial. Members were Nobel Prize winning physicists. Next, I was fortunate to work at The Avco Everett Research Lab, in Everett (;-) AERL knew what town they were in! Our work was reviewed by Professor Hans Bethe of Cornell University, recipient of the Nobel Prize in Physics for analyzing the Carbon Cycle in the Sun. Other very important influences on my approach to analyzing problems were my High School teachers: Mr. Seltzer, Mr. Eisenberg, Mr. Martino, and Dr. Ranucci. An equally important influence was Professor Larry Spruch at The Physics Department of NYU's Washington Square College, where I was an undergraduate. He taught me how to estimate things. His thesis was that a physicist should be able to estimate anything (not limited to physics problems) to within plus or minus an order of magnitude. That's a pretty wide spread. Once you practice, you can work those limits down considerably. It's much easier today with the advent and growth of ARPA's Internet. I have a new discovery... When financial or rather banking or economic gurus ALL say that something in their area of expertise can not be estimated, it will take (a physicist/systems engineer) less than a month. (Is it because the bankers/ financial miscreants do not know how, or they don't want you to know what they know? It makes you wonder...) Of one thing I am convinced, they do not understand how to use their risk management tools. The bankers have no understanding as to when the results they are getting with their risk managment tools are meaningful, when they are misleading at best, and when they are totally wrong... The next thing I learned is that the purchasers of financial "products" do not spend significant time with, or even visit the manufacturing line, to see how the "product" is being put together and packaged. To understand the quality of the widget, you need to see the process. Strange they would not have done so. They relied on rating agencies, who also did not visit the issuing process of a mortgage they would actually buy - some for resale, and some to keep - because they were so profitable, in the short term, to service. This lead to such large bonuses that it warped their judgment. If you analyze the sensor data from a data gathering mission with a sensor mounted on an aircraft, the first person you talk to should be the pilot, then the operators, then the design hardware and software engineers... Is a pattern emerging? I recommend that the current crop of economics advisors to President Obama study Norm Augustine's laws. They need to learn how to analyze complex systems. They need to study systems engineering and develop alertness and common sense. This is the crop that has not demonstrated any of the necessary skills, and they want to keep their banker buddies on the job using pay raises and bonuses to induce them to remain. Why? You did ask, right? Beats me. I now understand how to turn around the current recession in a clear, relatively inexpensive way. It should take six months to a year. I will be happy to do it for free if I can dole out the funds, and keep what's left over of the roughly $1.5 trillion already allocated for the financial and economic equivalent of remedial reading. Those funds won't generate any sustainable jobs. The word "sustainable" is very important. No one will deny that. I have not seen anyone else say they know how to do it. Am I an ego maniac? I doubt it. Any reasonably bright four year old could figure it out. Such a person has not been trapped into the demonstrably incorrect assumption set, outmoded ideologies, and failure laden modes of thought of the members of the President's council of economic advisors...
Brad Thomas is a research analyst and he currently writes weekly for Forbes and Seeking Alpha where he maintains research on many publicly-listed REITs. In addition, Thomas is the Editor of the Forbes Real Estate Investor, a monthly subscription-based newsletter. He is a shareholder and publisher on TheMaven (MVEN).
Thomas has also been featured in Forbes Magazine, Kiplinger’s, US News & World Report, Money, NPR, Institutional Investor, GlobeStreet, CNN, Newsmax, and Fox. He is the #1 contributing analyst on Seeking Alpha in 2014, 2015, and 2016 (based on page views).
Thomas has co-authored a book, The Intelligent REIT Investor, and is the author of The Trump Factor: Unlocking The Secrets Behind The Trump Empire (available on Amazon).
Thomas received a Bachelor of Science degree in Business/Economics from Presbyterian College and he is also on the Advisory Board of the Donald J. Trump Presidential campaign.
As a recent UC Davis graduate, I have a strong interest to work in the investment industry. I use Seeking Alpha to publish my analysis and offer my perspective to other investors.
My investing philosophy is for the long term. Short term noise don't bother me.
I enjoy learning from my fellow writers as well! If you live in San Francisco or in the Bay Area, feel free to send me a message to coordinate meetups to discuss stock investing, finance, etc.
You can connect with me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/RonaldLiu3
Finding deep value through high-yielding dividend investments. In our analysis, we use fundamental valuation techniques that are combined with technical charting methods to establish both bullish and bearish stances on key assets in the market. We look for undervalued stocks and missed opportunities as a means to identify inefficiencies in the system. And then we capitalize on them.
Email: Portfolio@Dividend-Investments.com for our DIY portiolio strategy subscription services.
Investor/trader focused on discovering under the radar stocks and alpha generating ideas for my readers. Additionally, I try to give a differentiated take on names readers might already be familiar with. My specialty is looking specifically for opportunities to achieve high % gains within a year's timeframe (ROTY- Runners of the Year). Last but not least, I highlight risk management and entry/exit strategies quite a bit, as I believe they represent areas that are often neglected but materially important for readers to understand and apply.
TipRanks Top 150 Ranking 2nd Half 2016- 1st Half 2017, Currently #43 (as of 9/16)
**I've noticed that since starting the ROTY series my stock picks haven't been appropriately included due to the format- additionally we often take profits in under a year. Just something to take into consideration
My biggest successes have been in the biotech arena (over $300k personal portfolio profits), while my biggest losses have been due to overconfidence and a failure to adequately heed the bear thesis on my picks.
As always, all posts are my personal opinion. None of my material should be considered as investment advice, as readers must make their own decisions based on their own financial situations or are encouraged to utilize an investment professional (CFP, etc). Trading and investing in stocks can be very risky, and investors can lose up to 100% of principal in the event of adverse circumstances. By reading my material readers are agreeing to the above and assuming all responsibility for their own investment decisions.
FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions)
1: Why don't you have positions in each of the ROTY model account ideas?
Long story short, I've cashed out the majority of my portfolio, including gains from previous years, to buy a condo here in Peru, the kind I've always wanted but never thought I'd be able to afford. I'm very thankful for where trading and investing has taken me up to this point. I also used the funds with my wife to start her retail clothing chain, one which has a unique premise and wide moat. After we finish furnishing the place as well as get her business into a dominant self-sustaining position, I plan to turn future cashflow toward ROTY investing. The scalable ROTY model account is a transparent manner for me to show readers in real-time how I would be going about my trades in hopes that they find it useful, regardless of their account size.
2: What should I do if a binary catalyst or key event is coming for a stock that I own?
Again, I don't give advice, but what I would do personally depends on the situation. In general we try to purchase stocks months or even over a year out before such an event happens, so that we can "play the runup". If for example a stock rises 50% prior to the event, an investor can take full profits (sell the position) before the event if he or she has low risk tolerance (ie. doesn't want to lose money). If the investor has higher risk tolerance (I'm in this category generally), he or she can take partial profits (ie. sell 25% to 75% of shares) and hold the rest. If the trial data is positive or treatment is approved by the FDA or earnings are outstanding, then the investor will enjoy that big gain and bank the money. However, if the event has a disappointing result, at least you've already locked in gains and lose less. Just my two cents and how I typically operate.
3. What is your motivation in writing?
Put simply, ¨teach a man to fish.¨ When I bought my first handful of stocks I had no one to give me some guidance, thus having to learn through trial and error, quite a few highs and lots of emotional lows. My goal is to shorten the learning curve for readers, helping them learn from my mistakes and experience. Also, I simply enjoy the writing process a lot, reporting on exciting stocks with catalysts and discussing due diligence, strategy and risk management.
4. How are Editor's Picks chosen on the Author Page? What is your rating system?
Articles that I mark as editors picks are either recent entries that readers looking for actionable ideas might want to start by looking at OR older calls that I am especially proud of. Before, I chose them more haphazardly, but recently readers have requested a more coherent format.
Going forward, at the end of stock-specific articles I will be including a rating from the following scale (STRONG SELL, SELL, HOLD, BUY, CONVICTION BUY). Afterwards I discuss specific strategies readers can utilize, such as buy the dip, pilot position and then add after dilution, when to take partial profits, etc.
5. Many of your stock picks are in the biotech arena- do you have a medical background?
No, but I have been trading healthcare and tech stocks for almost 10 years, which allows me to efficiently separate the BS from quality fundamental and technical setups for readers and myself.
6. What do you mean when you state readers need to do "Due Diligence" prior to buying a stock? What is community-driven DD?
When I say readers need to do their DD, I am referring to at least the basics. This includes reading quarterly reports, transcripts, corporate presentations (listening too, not just looking at slides), SEC filings, etc. When evaluating management readers can read their projections from the past few quarters or years and see if they actually did what they say they would do. A big part of the DD process is looking for red flags, such as overly promotional management, heavy insider sales, misleading press releases, lack of differentiation versus competitors, issues with IP, unfavorable risk/reward, etc. Bruce Berkowitz once said "Kill the business", meaning try to find everything that could go wrong, estimate how likely that is and what the downside could be.
As for community-driven DD, it means in the comments sections and forums readers contribute any nuggets of information they've found, whether they are bull or bear, recent news that affects the thesis, expert opinion if they have access and other insights they have. One thing I'm thankful for on Seeking Alpha is that readers at times bring information to my attention I wasn't aware of, or simply bring a stock to my attention that for whatever reason fell off my radar. Typically, I've found everyone has something to contribute and there are no "dumb questions"- everybody starts somewhere and the comments should be an ego-free zone where both experienced and novice investors alike can say their piece.
What is your "teach a man to fish" approach?
Put simply, I do my best to teach readers all aspects of my ROTY strategy. The rest is up to them to apply, knowing I am here for any questions or concerns they may have. In each article I strive to include only relevant material on my trading or investing thesis related to a stock- recent events, material catalysts, financials, red flags, institutional holders of note, competition, etc. My primary goal is getting relevant, actionable material out to readers in a timely fashion so they have time to do their own DD and react accordingly- I will not delve into background information, unnecessary explanations and other such information that readers can easily find on their own.
Is there a reason you respond to some comments and not others?
First of all, apologies to anyone whose private message or comment might have slipped past me. I currently work several positions at the moment, and so unfortunately I may read a comment but then forget to follow up. Rest assured I do read them and respond as I am able.
Additionally, I do have a list of "blocked users" to whom I don't respond. My primary goal in comments section is to create an "ego-free" environment where readers can feel free to ask questions knowing someone in the community will help. We all aid each other in due diligence, research and investing strategy. For those who either bring a poor attitude or are unprofessional, it's simply easier to avoid responding in hopes that they move on. For my readers, I ask that when such individuals "invade" the comments section to avoid antagonizing them- it's not worth our time. Focus on assisting those we can, those who want to be helped.
Hedgeye Risk Management is an independent investment research and online financial media firm. Focused exclusively on generating and delivering thoughtful investment ideas in a proven buy-side process, the firm combines quantitative, bottom-up and macro analysis with an emphasis on timing.
The Hedgeye team features some of the world's most regarded research analysts - united around a vision of independent, un-compromised real-time investment research as a service. We measure ourselves on our core values: Transparency, Accountability, and Trust.
The Principal Researcher at Laurentian Research, Ph.D. in Earth Sciences, has over 30 years of experience in research and petroleum industry, and more than 20 years of security investment experience. In conducting security research, Laurentian Research is supported by its extensive network in the oil and other industries.
Laurentian Research conducts data-driven, in-depth security research to locate deep value, contrarian, GARP opportunities with strongly lopsided risk-reward profile. Its research focuses on upstream oil companies; however, it is also interested in certain segments of the transportation sector which can be used as a hedge against risks associated with gyrating crude oil prices. It also parlays its analytical methodology to other industries, e.g., natural resources, consumer products and financial services, in search of mis-priced secular growth opportunities.
Disclosure: The author is not a registered financial advisor and does not purport to provide investment advice regarding decisions to buy, sell or hold any security. Before making any decision to buy, sell or hold any security mentioned in this article, investors should consult with their financial adviser. The author has relied upon publicly available information gathered from sources, which are believed to be reliable. However, while the author believes these sources to be reliable, the author provides no guarantee either expressly or implied. The author may choose to transact in securities of one or more companies mentioned within this service within the next 72 hours.
Independent analyst for technology M&A, corporate investments and IPOs at Seeking Alpha.
Founder and CEO at venture capital database: VentureDeal.com
Contact me at: djones [at] venturedeal [dot] com
Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange Money Metals Exchange provides the latest precious metals news for savvy, self-reliant investors who want to invest in gold, silver & other precious metals.
My analysis revolves around technology and strategy in the self-driving car and electric car markets. Currently, I devote all my focus to these two markets in order to gain a depth of knowledge and theoretical understanding that would be impossible if I spread my time more thinly. My formal background is in philosophy — the broadly applicable art of deep, systematic, and creative thinking about fundamental theoretical problems — and I've been teaching myself about technology for a decade. I do the best I can.
Just graduated from Caltech, where I studied Computer Science. I'll be starting as a financial analyst in NYC. My passion is in economics, and I love writing about currencies and commodities, mostly gold, the DXY, and silver.
Mr. Berger is the creator and developer of the YDP screening tool, a chart system and its analysis for screening and monitoring dividend income equity investments. The recipient of Seeking Alpha's Outstanding Performance Award, he also has been Seeking Alpha's #3 ranked Author for Income Investing Strategy & #4 for Utilities.
20 years of sitting in the board room gives me unique insights into Oil & Gas investments and corporate deal making in general. Additionally, he offers a Premium Research subscription service for boosting income while reducing market risk using covered option writing on a dividend income equity portfolio.
Residing in Brazil gives me a local's inside view on the pulse of its economy, politics, investment climate and breaking news. A view of my front yard is available here.
A former Chief Operating Officer, Director, Vice President and General Manger of Oil and Gas for Southern Pacific's Oil and Gas Operations, Business owner, geologist, and cribbage player, I've been an investor for over 48 years (started young at 13) and learned my lessons the way that makes them stick, by hard knocks and both big and little mistakes. Hopefully I can share some of those lessons with others.
I am an American expatriate that decided to retire at age 57 in 2009 and now live in Brazil. As an early retiree I invest for income and manage portfolio risk by screening for strong and reliable historic data along with favorable fundamental and technical current trends.
I spend 6 months/year living at home in Brazil and 6 months/year traveling the world. I have structured my financial positions so that I live virtually tax free with much of my income exempt from US tax since I live ex patriot and a lot of my US derived income over the annual ex-patriate exemptions is held in my tax free ROTH and tax deferred IRA/SIMPLE plans. This enables my tax savings to pay for my 6 months of annual traveling :) .
My investing is for income and appreciation with a balance of low to moderate short term risk and low long term risk. To accomplish this I use quality dividend payors with a long track record of steady or increasing dividends along with slowly appreciating equity prices. I target a 6 to 9 % yield and almost exclusively require a minimum history of 5 years of steady/increasing dividends and no decreases in dividend ever or at least past 10 years. I diversify through sector, country and currency unit the stocks are traded in, and security type (equity, royalty trust, REIT, mlp, etf, and ADRs).
I use covered call writing to enhance my portfolio yield with no added risk. In fact, it lowers the risk substantially. Once I identify a stock I want to own and an entry price for it, I write cash covered puts at or below that entry price (with a minimum of 1%/month time premium. Thus i obtain at least a 12% annualized yield before compounding just from the option premium.
Likewise, I use the sale of cash covered puts to generate income and and generally get an entry point at 5 to 10% below my acceptable entry level price if/when the put stock does get presented. Thus my strategy provides a 12% pre compound yield on cash and entry into stock purchases at a 5 to 10% discount from "retail".
Because I only select stocks that I am willing to hold long term for their reliable dividend yields of > 6%, I am not concerned much with market volatility or short/midterm risk. Indeed, market volatility is my friend since it increases the premiums paid on the options I sell. I also selectively sell covered calls on positions I hold long so as to add to my yield that way while not taking on any additional risk.
This strategy has kept me happily living off my portfolio income and traveling 1/2 the year while my portfolio has been slowly increasing in value even after my harvesting income for living expenses. Of course my income will incrementally increase when social security kicks in for me in a few more years and I may then slightly mofidy my goals and strategies.
Readers can get an e-mail once a day from Seeking Alpha that lists all newly published articles of ALL the authors they follow in a single e-mail. To get these updates:
- a - Click "Alerts" along the top menu tab (just left of the green PRO tab)
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Perhaps more than any other time in the last six decades, the fate of markets is inextricably intertwined with the ebb and flow of geopolitics. From the ECB's attempts to use the central bank's balance sheet to influence political outcomes across the eurozone to Saudi Arabia's efforts to transform the kingdom's influence over crude prices into an instrument of foreign policy, it's become increasingly clear that one simply cannot fully comprehend market movements without a thorough understanding of concurrent political outcomes. Drawing on extensive experience in both politics and finance, Heisenberg will help demystify a world in which investors can no longer hope to conceptualize markets as existing in anything that even approximates a vacuum. "I am the one who knocks."
Just an ordinary guy who has decided to manage his own IRA portfolio after wresting it away from a Bankster. Instead of .05% I now have 70% gain this year. I should have done this years ago. Long gold and gold miners. Its more than just insurance.
Option Millionaires was started in February 2008 to provide traders with information about option trading. Led by three career option traders, whose pseudonyms are JimmyBob, UraniumPintoBeans, and Vantillian, they started one of the most popular option trading communities on the web.
Now, Option Millionaires provides a blog, a live chat forum in which we allow our subscribers to mirror our trades, educational classes, and intraday market commentary to its subscribers. Thanks for stopping by and happy trading!
Gaurao is an MBA from Wales university and an engineering graduate from Mumbai university. He is involved in international trade and has been passionately tracking global equity markets for more than 7 years. He has been focusing mainly on spotting long term value investments in biotechnology, pharmaceutical, health insurance, hospital, and medical device sectors.
We offer a unique Long/Short Equity Solution for qualified investors. It combines a quantitative macro process with fundamental individual equity research, in effect multitasking your capital.
Stephen Simpson, CFA, is a freelance financial writer and investor.
I have worked for both sell-side and buy-side firms (equities and fixed income), with the largest percentage of my working time spent in med-tech. At this point I am now effectively in a "working retirement".
I write because I find that the process helps me take better notes, be more disciplined about modeling, and come up with a more coherent investment view for my portfolio management needs. If I'm writing about a stock, it's generally because I'm interested in it as an investment prospect or I think there's an interesting story to tell.
I don't share my models, so please don't ask.
More of my writings can be found at my blog Kratisto Investing (kratistoinvesting.blogspot.com), or Twitter (@Kratisto_Invest).
Follow me on Twitter: @NewConstructs
David is CEO of New Constructs (www.newconstructs.com), an independent research firm that leverages proprietary technology to find key insights from the Financial Footnotes of 10Ks and 10Qs. Having analyzed over 70,000 annual reports and their Financial Footnotes, New Constructs helps protect clients from the red flags/unknowns in SEC filings.
David is a distinguished investment strategist and corporate finance expert. He is a member of FASB's Investors Advisory Committee, and he is author of the Chapter “Modern Tools for Valuation” in The Valuation Handbook (Wiley Finance 2010).
David's insights into the markets and his stock picks have been popular with a wide variety of media outlets.
I have twenty-five years of experience in financial analysis, risk management and business development, all in the commodity sectors. I was a founder and head of trading for a niche commodity company which was sold in 2015. I am contrarian and highly analytical. I have an MBA and a BS in Mechanical Engineering. I have taught nine courses at the MBA and undergraduate levels. I recently launched a subscription service on Seeking Alpha, which can be see here: https://seekingalpha.com/account/research/custom_subscribe?slug=viking-analytics.