New Deal Democrat
Contributor since: 2018
Latest Articles
Long Leading Indicators Of Easing Credit And Real Retail Sales Remain Positive For Now
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Interest Rates Shade Long-Term Forecast Further Into Neutral Territory
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Interest Rates Jump To New Expansion Highs
Barring The Fed Reversing Course, Housing Has Peaked For This Cycle
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Short-Term Forecast Joins Long-Term Forecast As Neutral, Tariffs Killing Rail
Long Leading Indicators In Q3 GDP Give Decidedly Mixed Signals
Paul Kasriel's 'Infallible' Recession Warning Indicator Hasn't Been Triggered - Yet
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Interest Rates And Tariffs Weaken The Economy In All Timeframes
Trend In Housing Permits And Starts Turns More Negative
September Industrial Production: Beware YoY Hurricane-Affected Distortions
Big Miss In Real Retail Sales In September May Mark An Important Downshift
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Is A Summer 2019 Slowdown Beginning To Show Up In The Short Leading Forecast?
Weekly High-Frequency Indicators: Will 7-Year Highs In Interest Rates Fatally Wound Housing?
The Simple Fed Funds + Payrolls Leading Model Forecasts A Significant Summer Slowdown Next Year
September Auto Sales: The Worst In A Long Time (For Awful, Misleading Reporting)
August Residential Construction Spending: Yet More Evidence Of A Turn In Housing
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Some New Strength, But Interest Rates Rise And Tighten
Comprehensive Housing Update For September: More Signs Of Sales Rolling Over
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Good News And Bad News On Interest Rates
The Most Important Single Housing Report In The Last 7 Years
Industrial Production: Energy Surges, While Manufacturing Only Middling
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: 3.7% Spike In M1 In One Week
5 Long Leading Indicators 'On The Cusp'
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Continued Volatility Among Long Leading Indicators
Producers Are Hot*, But Consumers Maybe Not
Weekly High-Frequency Indicators: Long-Term Forecast Turns Negative For The Second Time In 3 Weeks
What Does The Long Leading Indicator Of Corporate Profits, Just Reported For Q2 GDP, Portend
Housing Unaffordability Exacerbated As Prices Continue To Rise; Expect Further Pressure On Sales
Just The Current Yield Curve Tightness Makes A Midyear 2019 Slowdown Likely; What Happens Next Is Up To The Fed
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Strong M1 Helps Long Leading Indicators Return To Neutral
Housing Turns (Slightly) Negative
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: For The First Time Since 2009, Long-Term Forecast Turns Negative