New Deal Democrat
Contributor since: 2018
Articles
Weekly Indicators: Positive Countertrend Moves In Rates, Gas Prices, And Stocks Continue
The Long Leading Forecast To Mid Year 2023: Recession Watch Remains In Effect Throughout
Weekly Indicators: Small Countertrend Moves Leave Nowcast Neutral After Negative GDP Print
Weekly Indicators: Gas Prices Continue To Decline, Yield Curve Continues To Tighten
Weekly Indicators: Broader Yield Inversions, But Oil Prices Decline
Weekly Indicators: More Deterioration In Leading Indicators, But Nowcast Remains Positive
Weekly Indicators: Manufacturing, Money, And Credit Turn More Negative
Weekly Indicators: Manufacturing Fades, But Services Persist
Weekly Indicators: Deterioration Spreading Among Short Leading Indicators
Weekly Indicators: Expect The Fed To Keep Stomping On The Brakes
Weekly Indicators: A Weak, And Weakening, Economy
Weekly Indicators: The Impact Of Money Supply And Corporate Profits
Long Leading Forecast Update: Recession Watch Beginning Q1 2023
Weekly Indicators: More Slow Deterioration Of Financial Indicators
Weekly Indicators: Interest Spreads Widen, But Long Leading Forecast Still Negative
Housing Market Big Picture: Rates Rise, Sales Downturn, Price Peak, Inventory Rise
Weekly Indicators: Financial Conditions Generally, Credit Provision Specifically, Worsen
Weekly Indicators: For The First Time, Including Potential Recession Beginning Q2 2023
The Inflationary Recession Of 1949 And Its Lessons For 2022
Weekly Indicators: Mortgage Rates, At 12 Year Highs, Turn Long Leading Forecast Flat
Weekly Indicators: Yield Curve Steepens, But Mortgage Rates Make New Highs
Weekly Indicators: Never Simply Project A Current Trend Forward
Weekly Indicators: Long Leading Forecast Deteriorates Further As Yield Curve Inverts
The Camel's Nose Is In The Tent, 2022 Edition
Weekly Indicators: Increasing Pressure On Long Leading Forecast
Weekly Indicators: Caught In The Pincers
Weekly Indicators: The Ukraine Conflagration Puts More Pressure On The Economic Fundamentals
Weekly Indicators: Commodity Prices Surge Over 10% In A Week
Weekly Indicators: In Which The Wisdom Of John Quincy Adams Remains True 200 Years Later
Weekly Indicators: Mortgage Rates And Gas Prices Pressure Consumers
Weekly Indicators: The White-Hot Boom Has Ended, But No Recession Signal Yet
Weekly Indicators: Red Hot Wages And Commodities, Retreating Omicron
Long Leading Forecast Through Year End 2022: A Deceleration To Near Recession
Weekly Indicators: Interest Rates Increase, Oil And Commodities Make New Multi-Year Highs
Weekly Indicators: Still Positive But With Signs Of Deterioration
Short-Term Forecast For First Half 2022: Expansion Continues
Weekly Indicators: Omicron, Interest Rates, And Commodity Prices Hit The Forecasts And Nowcast
Weekly Indicators: Long Leading Forecast Moves Towards Neutrality
Weekly Indicators: Omicron Bears Down As Interest Rates Signal Changes
Weekly Indicators: No Sign Yet Of Any Dive Due To Omicron