We have over 60 years of investment analysis experience. We have published investment research from the perspective of the buy side and the sell side. Our work has been used by institutions managing over $1 trillion in aggregate. We have published reports from both the long and short perspective and have worked with the largest short selling mutual fund in the world. We are long term value investors. It is our belief that, contrary to popular opinion, most individual investors and patient professional investors have the best opportunity since the beginning of our investment career to beat institutional and mutual fund managers in terms of risk adjusted performance. The "Information Arbitrage" advantage institutional investors have had is mostly eliminated, while the individual investor still can maintain an edge with "Time Arbitrage". Our goal is to provide institutional quality buy side articles that educate and stimulate investors in the hope of improving their returns. We also are willing to mentor young analysis who wish to improve their analytical skills.
This page and all of its contributor content is operated by Quoth the Raven Research, LLC. Quoth the Raven is Christopher Irons from Philadelphia, PA. Equity research and analysis performed by QTR has been featured in Barron's, the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Yahoo Finance, Reuters, Bloomberg and many other financial outlets. QTR is a speaker at numerous financial conferences annually. QTR was named to Benzinga's "10 Financial Twitter Names to Follow in 2018" and in late 2017 was named to Forbes' "Top 100 Twitter Accounts for Finance". In 2016, QTR's work was selected as a finalist for the Sohn Investment Conference Idea Contest. In 2014, he was named to Seeking Alpha's Top List of Best Performing Financial Bloggers and was TipRanks' #6 Performing Financial Blogger (Out of 4,000+). View QTR's track record on TipRanks: https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/quoth-the-raven View QTR's website: http://www.quoththeravenresearch.com View QTR's Twitter: https://twitter.com/QTRResearch Listen to the QTR podcast: http://quoththeraven.podbean.com All content contained herein is bound to both Seeking Alpha's terms of service, as well as the terms of service found here: https://quoththeravenresearch.com/disclaimerterms-of-service/
Whitney Tilson is the founder and Managing Partner of Kase Capital Management, which manages three value-oriented hedge funds. Mr. Tilson is also the co-founder of Value Investor Insight, an investment newsletter.
Mr. Tilson has co-authored two books, The Art of Value Investing: How the World's Best Investors Beat the Market (2013) and More Mortgage Meltdown: 6 Ways to Profit in These Bad Times (2009), was one of the authors of Poor Charlie’s Almanack, the definitive book on Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger, and has written for Forbes, the Financial Times, Kiplinger’s, the Motley Fool and TheStreet.com. He was featured in two 60 Minutes segments in December 2008 about the housing crisis (which won an Emmy) and in March 2015 about Lumber Liquidators. He served for two years on the Board of Directors of Cutter & Buck, which designs and markets upscale sportswear, until the company was sold in early 2007.
Mr. Tilson received an MBA with High Distinction from the Harvard Business School, where he was elected a Baker Scholar (top 5% of class), and graduated magna cum laude from Harvard College, with a bachelor’s degree in Government.
Mr. Tilson spent much of his childhood in Tanzania and Nicaragua (his parents are both educators, were among the first couples to meet and marry in the Peace Corps, and have retired in Kenya). Consequently, Mr. Tilson is involved with a number of charities focused on education reform and Africa. For his philanthropic work, he received the 2008 John C. Whitehead Social Enterprise Award from the Harvard Business School Club of Greater New York. He is a member and past Chairman of the Manhattan chapter of the Young Presidents’ Organization. Mr. Tilson lives in Manhattan with his wife and three teenage daughters.
Long Cast Advisers (LCA) is a Brooklyn based RIA that provides concentrated small cap investing to individuals, endowments and family offices. We do this with the most differentiated approach - individual stock selection - that is apart from and indifferent to the markets.
Our goal is to maximize the long term returns on client funds by allocating an agreed upon portion to small cap stocks balanced against cash. Then we seek to buy great companies that are changing and if we are right, we hold them. If we are wrong - and that will inevitably happen - we sell them.
With +12 years institutional research experience and +20 years investing our own funds, we know that we are not smarter than the market. But we are more patient and that allows us to envision opportunities unfolding over time, beyond the immediate present or next quarter.
Because we focus on smaller companies, we consider ourselves part owners of the businesses we invest in. We tend to engage with management at least minimally (and occasionally more), we also engage with customers and competitors, and notably, we won't invest in companies that sell products or services we would be ashamed to discuss: As best we can, we avoid businesses that drop bombs on people’s heads, despoil the environment, profit on suffering or await a bigger fool.
We are not market prognosticators. We view prognostication as Marx viewed religion; it is the opiate of the investment masses. Apart from using a benchmark for comparative purposes, and unless there is a direct corollary to a company or its valuation, we are generally indifferent to the overall market.
LCA is licensed and state registered. We use Interactive Brokers as a platform and third-party custodian for separately managed accounts. We describe our business as "the food truck version of a hedge fund" in that we select stocks and manage the portfolio like a fund, but the costs are lower and the approach is completely transparent. We manage appropriateness by allowing the client to select the target allocation between cash and stocks.
LCA's CIO is Avram ("Avi") Fisher and the firm's investment philosophy is informed by his >10 years experience as a sell-side analyst covering large-cap industrials, business services and E&C's, taking only the best parts - the in-depth research - while avoiding the short-term next-quarter beat-raise insanity. He has additional experience in private equity, as a private investigator and as a former cub reporter and writer. He continues to write, here and on his blog, as a way to organize his thoughts and to share some of his ideas with other like-minded patient, small cap investors.
Disclaimer: All content written on Seeking Alpha by Long Cast Advisers is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any specific security or class of security. LCA's opinions expressed herein address only select certain aspects of the companies mentioned and cannot be a substitute for comprehensive investment analysis. Any analysis presented herein is illustrative in nature, limited in scope, and is for discussion purposes only. The information upon which this material is based was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified. Therefore, LCA cannot guarantee its accuracy. Any opinions or estimates constitute the author's best judgment as of the date of publication, and are subject to change without notice. Equity investing is subject to various risks including the total loss of capital.
Behind the Numbers (BTN) was founded in 1988 as an independent, conflict-free equity research boutique serving institutional investors, mutual funds and hedge funds. Over the years, we have established a reputation for digging below the surface of a company's financial statements to find the real story the numbers are telling. We apply a forensic accounting style analysis, fundamental "grass roots" research, and original thinking to the task of assessing a company's growth prospects, the quality of its earnings and cash flows, as well as the sustainability of its dividend. Our process identifies high-quality equities with the following characteristics: • Significant dividend yield- We favor companies with dividend yields higher than the S&P 500. • High quality earnings/cash flow- High quality, growing earnings backed by strong cash flows is a key to sustainable dividend growth. • Long-term capital appreciation- Our goal is to identify equities that will appreciate over time based on the company's rising cash flow and increasing dividend stream, while avoiding those whose cash flows may become impaired. Our research process also uncovers companies with weak earnings and cash flow quality, or that are considered by the market to be strong now, but are likely to face increasing problems in the future. These companies are also identified in our research as sell recommendations to help long investors reduce downside risk or to actively profit through selling short.
In search of a better constructed, more efficient, easily replicable portfolio that is properly risk-balanced for growth with lower downside risk. Also scanning the market for high-quality assets at a discounted price.
Investment horizon is always medium- to long-term (12 months or more), and will often act as a contrarian to short-term consensus in order to identify the best longer-term investment opportunities. Tend to focus on technology and energy services sectors.
Founder Daniel Martins is a former equity researcher at FBR Capital Markets in New York City; finance analyst at hedge fund Bridgewater Associates; and associate auditor at General Electric.
Intrepid Leader at an RIA. My firm and I simplify the lives of busy clients by providing ongoing financial planning and asset management. this is done by providing our clients customized, ongoing comprehensive financial planning, and customized investment advisory services tailored to the clients' needs. As a fiduciary, we have a legal obligation to put the needs and interests of our clients above our own. Specialties: fee based comprehensive financial planning, retirement planning, life insurance and protection planning.
Hedgeye Risk Management is an independent investment research and online financial media firm. Focused exclusively on generating and delivering thoughtful investment ideas in a proven buy-side process, the firm combines quantitative, bottom-up and macro analysis with an emphasis on timing.
The Hedgeye team features some of the world's most regarded research analysts - united around a vision of independent, un-compromised real-time investment research as a service. We measure ourselves on our core values: Transparency, Accountability, and Trust.
Darren is the jester at the Cash Flow Kingdom, the investment community where Cash Flow is King. He also owns ProActive Financial LLC where he provides Financial Planning and Analysis consulting services directly to corporations. Darren's education includes a Bachelors in Economics, an MBA, and a Certificate in Personal Financial Planning.
Value Digger holds MSc. in Electrical Engineering, speaks four languages and has lived in the U.S. for many years. He is a full-time, deep value investor and a well-known freelance writer who has been consistently ranked in the TOP-100 on TipRanks out of over 6,000 financial bloggers and analysts since 2012.
Specifically, he is a Seeking Alpha Author with one of the highest Followers per Article (F/A) rates. His F/A rate in Seeking Alpha exceeds 30 followers per article. Also, he is the Publisher and Editor of "The Alpha Discoverer", an insightful investment newsletter on The Maven (MVEN). Additionally, he is an Author for Stockhouse.com, Canada's #1 financial portal and one of North America's largest small cap investor communities with over 1 million unique visitors a month.
In 2014, Value Digger created a big community of deep value investors on his own website www.nathansbulletin.com. In 2015, Value Digger launched "Value Investor's Stock Club" on Seeking Alpha, a top-ranked deep value research service which includes an unparalleled, actively-managed and high-return Portfolio of unknown/underfollowed stocks. In 2017, Value Digger launched "The Alpha Discoverer", an insightful investment newsletter on TheMaven (MVEN) platform.
The Quarterly Performance Reviews PROVE his high returns and are available to his subscribers on Seeking Alpha and TheMaven. For reference, when Value Digger was managing money in the early 2000s, his Portfolio's annual ROI consistently exceeded 70%. His Premium Research is based on a comprehensive review of company-specific factors, macro conditions, competitors and the industry trends. Value Digger uses his analytical skills, goes against the grain and repeatedly discovers disconnects in a variety of sectors.
When it comes to his publicly-available picks and his free articles, Value Digger has a success rate of ~70%, an average return per recommendation of ~20% and a 5-star rating (TipRanks.com), which is the highest category quality ranking used to evaluate financial experts. TipRanks.com is a comprehensive investing tool that allows private investors and day traders to see the measured performance of anyone who publicly provides financial advice. TipRanks.com collects data, evaluates and ranks over 6,000 financial experts worldwide.
After 30 years of investing experience in the international markets (U.S., Canada, Australia, Europe), Value Digger has formulated a deep understanding of valuation analysis and his investment philosophy is firmly grounded in Ben Graham-style value-oriented opportunities that often have an assymetric risk/reward profile. On that front, he has created a unique proprietary database with thousands of publicly-traded companies per sector, which helps him spot the bargains and the bubbles before many investors find them.
Dining Stocks Online (DSO) publishes investment research on the restaurant sector, in the form of periodic free articles, as well as a comprehensive subscription service. DSO's research is compiled and edited by investors with more than two decades of experience assisting with the allocation of capital to the public dining sector, both personally and for advisory clients. DSO's subscription service was initially launched in 2016 and is now being offered on Seeking Alpha as of June 2017. DSO aims to become a valuable provider of niche research exclusively devoted to publicly traded restaurant companies.
Founded by Nate Anderson, CFA, CAIA, Hindenburg Investment Research specializes in forensic research and activist short-selling. Our experience in the investment management industry spans over a decade, with a historical focus on buy side equity, credit, and derivatives analysis.
While we use fundamental analysis to aid our investment decision-making, we believe the best edge can be had by uncovering hard-to-find information from atypical sources. In particular we look for situations where companies may have any combination of (i) accounting irregularities (ii) bad actors in management or key service provider roles (iii) undisclosed related-party transactions (iv) or illegal/unethical business or financial reporting practices.
Tips and feedback can be sent to firstname.lastname@example.org
2nd Market Capital Advisory specializes in the analysis and trading of real estate securities. Through a selective process and consideration of market dynamics, we aim to construct portfolios for rising streams of dividend income and capital appreciation.I am an investment adviser representative of 2nd Market Capital Advisory Corporation.
Founder of "The Contrarian", a premium research service, featuring the "Bet The Farm" Portfolio. Actively investing since 1995, I have soared like an eagle, and been unmercifully humbled by the markets. Achieved positive returns in 2008, and turned an account with $60,310 on 1/1/2009 into an account with $3,177,937 on 11/30/2009. My best years have been 1995-2003, 2008-2012, and 2016. My worst years were 2013-2015 & 2017. I believe inflation is coming, and we are at an inflection point in the markets.
Twenty year career as an investment analyst, investor, portfolio manager, consultant, and writer. Founder of Koldus Contrarian Investments, Ltd, which was incorporated in the spring of 2009. Dyed in the wool contrarian investor, who has learned, the hard way, that a good contrarian is only contrarian 20% of the time, but being right at key inflection points is the key to meaningful wealth creation in the markets. I believe we are near a meaningful inflection point, perhaps the biggest one yet, for the third time in the past 15 years.
Historically, I have had huge wins and impressive losses based on a concentrated, contrarian strategy. Trying to keep the good while filtering out the bad.
Seeking to run an all weather portfolio with minimal volatility and index overlays to capture my strategic and tactical recommendations along with a concentrated best ideas portfolio, which is my bread and butter, but the volatility only makes it suitable for a small piece of an investor's overall portfolio. The following are a couple of my favorite investment quotes.
"Life and investing are long ballgames." Julian Robertson
"A diamond is a chunk of coal that is made good under pressure."
"Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world." Albert Einstein
I’ve been on top of the world, and the world has been on top of me. I have learned to enjoy the perspective from each view, and use opportunities to persistently acquire knowledge, and enjoy the company of those around me, especially loved ones, family, and friends.
At heart, I am a market historian with an unrivaled passion for the capital markets. I have had a long history and specialization with concentrated positions and options trading. Made money in 2008 with a net long portfolio, deploying capital in some of the market's darkest hours into long positions including purchases of American Express, Atlas Energy, Crosstex, First Industrial Real Estate, General Growth Properties, Genworth, Macquarie Infrastructure, Ruth Chris Steakhouse, and Vornado near their lows. Shorting, hedging, and option strategies also helped me in 2007 and 2009, and these are skills that I have developed ever since I started trading heavily in 1996.I enjoy reading, accumulating knowledge, and putting this knowledge to work in the active capital markets, learning lessons along the way.To this day, I continue to learn, and some of these learning lessons have been excruciatingly difficult ones, especially over the past several years, as I made mistakes allocating capital, including a sizable portion of my own capital (I always invest alongside my clients), to commodity related stocks. While all commodity related stocks have struggled since April of 2011, coal companies, which attracted me due to their extremely cheap valuations, and out-of-favor status (I am a strong believer in behavioral finance alongside fundamentals and technicals) have been the worst investing mistake of my career. The focus on the commodity arena has been the biggest mistake of my investment career thus far, yet in its aftermath, I see tremendous opportunity, even larger in scope than the fortuitous 2008/2009 environment.The capital that I accumulated and the confidence gained in navigating the treacherous investment waters of 2008 gave me the confidence to launch my own investment firm in the spring of 2009, right before the ultimate lows in the stock market. At the time I was working as a senior analyst at one of the largest RIA's in the country, and I felt strongly that the market environment was the best time since 1974/1975 to start an investment firm.
Prior to starting my firm, I was a senior analyst for three different firms over approximately 10 years (Charles Schwab, Redwood, Oxford), moving up in responsibility and scope at each stop along my journey. Since I was a paperboy, I have always had an interest in the investment markets. I love researching and finding opportunities. I am a Chartered Financial Analyst, CFA, as well as a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst, CAIA. After starting in the teaching program at Ball State University, I switched to a career in finance when I turned a small student loan into a substantial amount of capital. I graduated summa cum laude with a degree in finance from Ball State.
Full disclosure, I am not currently a registered investment advisor, though I did serve in this capacity from 2009-2014, while owning Koldus Contrarian Investments, Ltd. Additionally, I held various securities licenses from 2000-2014, without a single complaint filed, and I continue to hold industry designations. At the end of 2014, I voluntarily let my state registration expire, as I transitioned the business to a different structure. Prior to this, I had passed, and held, various securities exams and licenses, including the Series 7, Series 63, and Series 65 exams, in addition to others, alongside my CFA and CAIA designations. Unfortunately, I did not file the proper paperwork to withdraw my state registration, and I did not disclose a personal arrangement, and subsequent civil case, between myself and a former close personal friend and client, that was initiated in 2011. I was unaware that I was required to disclose these items, and my securities attorney, at the time, did not advise me to do so. Previously, I had managed a portfolio for this gentleman, and we had taken an investment of approximately $7 million in 2009, and grown it to over $25 million at the beginning of 2012. After a difficult year of performance, an employee of the firm I owned, and friend, resigned in early 2013, and took the aforementioned client to a competing firm. As a result of not filing the proper paperwork, I agreed to a settlement, with a potential $2500 fine in the future, depending on if I choose to reapply to be a non-exempt advisor.
We seek out and publish letters to investors from hedge funds, mutual funds and private investment partnerships. When they discuss positions in detail, we tag them with those stock symbols.
Would you like to see your fund's letter on Seeking Alpha? Email us at email@example.com.
I am a ‘deep value’ investor/analyst mainly focused on the US small-cap and micro-cap universe. I started out with a long-only bias (stocks trading close to NCAV etc.) which led to my interest in the OTC world. I now cover this space through my exclusive newsletter service where I share my latest long ideas and a watchlist of OTC stocks which should help subscribers generate material returns and allow them to ‘monitor’ the space more efficiently. The service also acts a community of engaged members who share the same focus. On top of this, I am interested in short-focused research especially in thesis revolving around accountancy or earnings manipulation.
Day trader whose strategy is based on arbitrages in preferred stocks and closed end funds.My group consists of 10 traders.We trade every single preferred stock or closed end fund that provides an arbitrage opportunity. Our research includes stocks that most of the people have not even heard. We have developed our own statistical tools that make most of our arbitrages statistically proven. As a trader I don't just analyse , I trade my analysis and pay the price when I am wrong.That is the main reason I respect opinions only when backed by taking the risk of being wrong.Words or opinions mean nothing in this business and the only person who is right about a certain situation is the one who makes money out of it.
Dane Capital Management is a private investment management company, open to institutions and accredited investors, that focuses on value and special situations investments. Twitter: @danecapmgmt For more information see: www.danecap.com
Seeking Alpha's editors are responsible for selecting and editing contributed articles and producing Seeking Alpha's own content. Seeking Alpha produces news briefs ( http://seekingalpha.com/by/type/news-briefs) which are collated every morning into Wall Street Breakfast (http:// seekingalpha.com/by/type/wall-street-breakfast), our Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker (http://seekingalpha.com/tag/housing-bubble-and-real-estate-market-tracker), key excerpts from new IPO filings (http://seekingalpha.com/by/ type/ipo-analysis), portfolios (http://seekingalpha.com/tag/portfolios) of well-known investors, and summaries of Jim Cramer's stock picks (http://seekingalpha.com/by/type/cramers-picks). Seeking Alpha's editors also monitor our Interactive Q&As (http://seekingalpha.com/by/type/interviewsqa) to ensure cordiality. All Seeking Alpha editors adhere to our full compliance standards.
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The purpose of this profile is to allow us to share with our readers all new product developments. Please follow us on Seeking Alpha to receive updates. We look forward to your input and feedback!
SA Product Team
The Closed-End Fund Association (CEFA) is the national trade association representing the closed-end fund industry. A not-for-profit association, CEFA is committed to educating investors about the many benefits of these unique investment products and to providing a resource for information about its members and their offerings.
Singular Research aims to be the most trusted supplier of independent, trusted, single-source research on small-to-micro cap companies to the small-to-medium sized Hedge Fund manager. We will provide quarterly updates for 40 to 70 companies and make recommendations. How do we strive to achieve our Mission / Goal?
◾Find under or overvalued securities: Our goal is to provide initiation reports and quarterly updates for approximately 40 micro to small cap companies. In most cases, our analysts research companies that are not covered by any other firms.
◾We provide Honest Advice: Our Independent analysts have no financial interest in the stocks we cover. Analysts are compensated based on the accuracy of their research calls not through trading commissions or potential deal flow.
◾Track Record: Our picks were up 299.3% since inception in 2004, versus a 116.4% gain percent for the Russell 2000 over the same period.
I am an investor with professional experience analyzing stocks. My portfolio often consists of a handful small, micro and nano caps. I will discuss most of the stocks that I hold in my portfolio on Seeking Alpha, while also writing about larger stocks that interest me.
Yield Hunting is an alternative income investing service dedicated to income investors who are searching for yield hunting without the high risk of the equity market. Founded by a Lead Wealth Advisor, Chief Investment Strategist, and individual investor with two masters degrees and a CFA designation with over 20 years of investment experience. This premium subscription service authored by Alpha Gen Capital features a core-satellite model that allows investors to adjust for their own particular risk tolerance. We specialize in fixed income closed-end funds for generating income during retirement, micro and small-cap value investing, and macro analysis.
Doug K. Le Du is a preferred stock researcher, author of the book titled Preferred Stock Investing, syndicated writer and publisher of three monthly preferred stock newsletters.
Doug has been studying the preferred stock marketplace since 2002. In 2006 he published the first edition of Preferred Stock Investing which has been updated and re-published regularly since then.
Preferred Stock Investing teaches risk-averse investors how to screen, buy and sell the highest quality preferred stocks. The book lists all qualifying preferred stocks that have been issued since January 2001.
The ten selection criteria from Preferred Stock Investing filtered out the 57 preferred stocks from the big banks that would be claimed by the Global Credit Crisis and let pass the 13 issues from the big banks that were saved by acquisition. In 70 out of 70 cases, a 100% success rate for almost two years running, the preferred stock selection criteria found in Preferred Stock Investing protected preferred stock investors.
As a researcher, Doug researches the market price behavior of the highest quality preferred stocks and writes to you about trends and opportunities. His premium subscription service (described at www.PreferredStockInvesting.com) providers subscribers with email alerts of new preferred stock issues, access to his preferred stock catalogs and HotLists, a monthly newsletter just for premium subscribers and much more.
Doug's academic background is in economics and statistics. Doug retired from his position as Managing Director at one of the world's largest management consulting firms in 2002 to focus on preferred stock research. Doug does not sell preferred stocks nor is he a stock broker or financial adviser.
The Boyar Value Group was established in 1975. Through our research division we publish Asset Analysis Focus & Boyar’s Micro Cap Focus which provides some of the world’s largest hedge funds, family offices, mutual funds and sovereign wealth funds with in-depth research reports utilizing a private equity approach to public markets. We seek possible investment opportunities across the market capitalization spectrum and within a diverse range of industries. A large number of the companies featured in our publications are not widely followed by Wall Street.
In addition, we have been providing money management services utilizing our proprietary in-house research since 1983 for institutions, individuals and family offices.
To learn more about our firm, please visit www.boyarvaluegroup.com or email firstname.lastname@example.org
2016 returns: 22.40%
2017 returns: 22.05%
The REIT Forum is in the top 1% on TipRanks: http://bit.ly/cwmftip
The REIT Forum focuses on risk-adjusted returns with a defensive strategy. With a strong background in accounting and finance, fundamentals are a top priority. Buying a strong company with great fundamentals at an attractive price is a good long-term strategy. The subscription platform allows me to do a few things very well. It allows me to share the research I’m doing for my own investment decision making. It allows me to communicate rapidly with investors that are willing to pay for my best work.
The REIT Forum includes:
Subscriber only – Extensive research (thousands of articles) on 50+ companies, buy targets, and forward looking analysis.
Subscriber only - Weekly articles comparing 50+ preferred shares and finding the best opportunities. Preferred shares offer investors high yields with relatively lower risk.
Subscriber only - Analysis and updates on the REIT sectors. This includes finding the best investments within a subsector.
Subscriber only – Risk ratings and dividend sustainability research.
What is my view on risk?
The traditional view is to see earning excess returns as compensation for taking on high levels of risk. I believe it is far better to focus on earning returns from catching market failures. These failures happen due to poor liquidity and investors (including analysts) working with incomplete information. I believe that by knowing the individual companies well, the investor can step in when the “risk” is heavily skewed in favor of “returns”.
I do not try to generate higher returns, I try to generate more consistent returns by reducing the downwards risk. Occasionally that results in exceptionally high returns when something corrects, but it also means I am willing to pass on several decent opportunities because I want the risk/return profile skewed heavily in my favor.