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Google Analysis is now available and the Research in Motion report can be downloaded for free

|Includes: BBRY, Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)

This is, by far, the most extensive single forensic analysis and valuation we have ever done. It weighs in at 63 pages and covers all angles Google. I have decided to make the entire document available to all paying subscribers – access it here File Icon Google Final Report and pro and institutional subscribers can make use of the accompanying valuation model to adjust and tweak assumptions as they see fit – File Icon Google Valuation Model (pro and institutional).

This paragraph from the report pretty much sums up my opinion of the market’s and the sell side’s view of Google…

The key to appreciating how Google will make money on an open-source mobile platform such as Android resides in understanding the strategy behind Android and Google’s business model. It is important to understand that Google’s core competency from a revenue perspective is advertising, but its core competency from a strategic perspective is leveraging it cash cow revenues from advertising into high risk/high return ventures with relatively long horizons for return on investment. This rather old fashioned way of conducting business and investing can (and has since the beginning of investing) yield stellar results over time; unfortunately its value is often lost on the “what’s happening next quarter” crowd (often found in many retail investors, traders, long only institutions that are focused on quarterly and annual performance reports and the sell side of Wall Street) – particularly as the ROI horizon is extended while the venture requires constant capital to build momentum. With regards to Android, the open platform has allowed Google to incur minimal costs associated with the software development while the company has left the task of hardware development, marketing and customer service to hardware and carrier partners. In its Q2 conference call Google management reiterated that costs associated for mobile development was “immaterial” to Google. This, in and of itself, is a significant feat being that Android’s development cycle is nearly 3x as rapid as its closest competitors – Blackberry, Symbian, and iOS, Android has exhibited record growth for the industry and Android has probably already come close to capturing the top spot in the US for units shipped as well as growth rate and is on track to be 2nd globally in units shipped and 1st for growth rate. The strategic ROI is absolutely phenomenal and it would not be wise to assume the financial ROI will not follow.

On that note I would like to fix an error that was made in the last Research in Motion posting. In my attempt to give the report away for free, I had the wrong permissions set for the download. You may now download it for free simply by clicking the link, without even having to register. See below:

Now that Research in Motion has reached our valuation target and offered the opportunity for material gain for our subscribers, I have decided to released the full 45 page professional Forensic Valuation report to the public. It is quite extensive, and has been quite accurate to date - RIMM Forensic Analysis and Valuation – Professional & Institutional: Formerly available to Pro and institutional subscribers, now released to the public (simply click the link).


And from the valuation section of our Forensic Report (those who have downloaded it can refer to page 30)…

As you can see, we did a phenomenal job at anticipating the share price fall and the practical floor. Those of you who used options and/or leverage with proper risk management should have benefited handsomely. Of course, this particularly industry segment moves much more rapidly than most, which is why we have taken the opportunity to add flexibility in our valuations and analysis (page 32)…

As is usual, I welcome any and all to compare BoomBustBlog research to anything available from the sell side. I am confident many will wish to subscribe after an apples to apples comparison. This report release to the public is done in anticipation of the much more comprehensive, 65 page Google Forensic Valuation (hopefully by later on today or tomorrow morning) and the upcoming Apple Forensic Valuation. Please keep in mind that the Research in Motion story is not over, by a long shot. It looks as if they may have pulled a much needed rabbit out of their hat with their new tablet, but at this point it is still vaporware from our perspective since I have yet to get my hands on one. If it is what it is chocked up to be, it will then be up to management to execute. Their track record over their last 3 attempts at larger screen form factors have been wanting, at best, but maybe the fourth time around is a charm.

Professional subscribers should take advantage of the interactive valuation tools that I have made available to adjust the assumptions in the valuation model to keep abreast of the RIM situation (see file icon RIMM Multivariate Valuation Model). We have not updated the assumptions since before the earnings announcement, so there is some fine tuning to be done regarding the valuation report, but the gist of the story remains the same, and the report’s premise remains quite valid. I recommend all paying subscribers use the market share tools to assist in fine tuning their assumptions moving forward. This is a rapidly changing landscape, and what was once the underdog may become the champion – seemingly overnight. I, personally, am still quite skeptical of RIM management’s ability to execute in this environment, but I am keeping my eyes open.

Previous Research in Motion commentary

Subscription content (click here to subscribe):

More on the Creatively Destructive Pace of Technology Innovation and the Paradigm Shift known as the Mobile Computing Wars!
  1. There Is Another Paradigm Shift Coming in Technology and Media: Apple, Microsoft and Google Know its Winner Takes All
  2. The Mobile Computing and Content Wars: Part 2, the Google Response to the Paradigm Shift
  3. An Introduction to How Apple Apple Will Compete With the Google/Android Onslaught
  4. Don’t Count Microsoft Out of the Ultra-Mobile Computing Wars Just Yet
  5. This article should drive the point home: An iPhone 4 Recall Will Hurt Apple More By Opening Additional Opportunity for Android Devices Than Increased Expenses
  6. A First in the Mainstream Media: Apple’s Flagship Product Loses In a Comparison Review to HTC’s Google-Powered Phone
  7. After Getting a Glimpse of the New Windows Phone 7 Functionality, RIMM is Looking More Like a Short Play
  8. RIM Smart Phone Market Share, RIP?
  9. Android is gaining preference as the long-term choice of application developers
  10. A Glimpse of the BoomBustBlog Internal Discussion Concerning the Fate of Apple
  11. Math and the Pace of Smart Phone Innovation May Take a Byte Out of Apple’s (Short-lived?) Dominance
  12. Apple on the Margin
  13. RIM Smart Phone Market Share, RIP?
  14. Motorola, the Company That INVENTED the Cellphone is Trying to Uninvent the iPad With Android
  15. Android Now Outselling iOS? Explaining the Game of Chess That Google Plays in the Smart Phone Space
  16. There Goes Those Fancy eBook Aspirations from Apple, Barnes and Noble, and Amazon: 100,000’s of FREE eBooks from the Public Library
  17. How Google is Looking to Cut Apple’s Margin and How the Sell Side of Wall Street Will Enable This Without Sheeple Investor’s Having a Clue
  18. Empirical Evidence of Android Eating Apple!
  19. More of the Android Onslaught: Increasing Handset Revenues and Growth
  20. Many More Black Eyes for the Blackberry? A Complete Forensic Analysis of Research in Motion
  21. The BoomBustBlog Multivariate Research in Motion Valuation Model: Ready for Download

Disclosure: Long GOOG