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Forex Trade Signals and Setups Sept. 26th

GBPUSD – Possible Kumo Break Coming
After rejecting off the 1.6600 figure a month ago, the GBPUSD started its downtrend beginning with a successful Kumo break, then executing a series of two Tenkan-Kijun Cross signals both of which profited nicely.

The last move seems exhaustive and the bounce off the 1.5330 lows has produced a solid move and is holding (so far) above the 20ema. Because of the sharp nature of the bounce, there is an upcoming Kumo window with a flat top and 50% fib level of the last downswing. Traders should watch for this area in the kumo as a possible weakness in the resistance and the flat top+fib as a possible turning point for a move higher should it take out 1.5660.

Silver – Formed a Pinbar…A Bottom in Place?
After the CME hiked margins on Silver by 16% (21% for Gold), a perfect storm came together with mutual fund redemptions and margin calls on hedge funds hammered precious metals with Silver taking the largest hit over the head, shedding approximately $14 within three days dropping from $40 to $26 in no time.

In many ways, we view this as a healthy thing for the long term uptrend (which we still think is in tact) because it forced a lot of speculators trading paper silver to take out their paper profits and with stops being triggered, reset the books which were getting to be a little stale and needing new blood.   This, while holders of physical likely bought on the fall to $30 and $26 and we suspect those who were already holding physical are that much happier for the drop in prices allowing them to stock up more.

From a technical perspective, we are seeing a massive Pinbar on the 4hr chart which may have signaled both exhaustion or flat out rejection a critical support level of $26 (Dec. 10′, Jan. 11′ highs).   Should this Pinbar hold, expect the market to challenge key resistance at $30.93 and $32.30.   It is possible the nature of this pinbar being large might cause the market to challenge the low again so keep this in mind if looking for a buy.